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Originally Posted by HailToMichigan
I think too much would have to go wrong for Michigan to lose 6 games with the schedule the way it is. Broke this down in the Michigan thread but for easy reference here it is again:
With two games against MAC teams and two games against MAC-quality Big Ten teams (Minny, N'Western....pity we don't get Iowa too), that's four games that will be wins barring something ridiculous happening. I expect a win against Utah as well (they are inconsistent and not real impressive in most of their wins last year), so that's five.
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Don't sleep on Northwestern or Minny, especially since your offense will be going through growing pains......
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The three toughest games are OSU, Wisconsin, and PSU which is a road game.
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And you'll either be starting a freshman QB or a JUCO who hasn't ever played in an environment like that. You're losing all 3 of those.
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In the middle are ND (complete wild card IMO), Illinois (like Michigan, lost plenty of talent, and comes to AA this year), Purdue (road game, but craptacular defense), and MSU (home game.)
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You'll likely beat Ntre Ame, they still won't be any better than .500 this year either even with a very bad schedule.
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To lose six games we'd have to:
- Lose all three against OSU, Wisc, and PSU. However, PSU is not that great and we've owned them for nearly a decade. Wisconsin, we get early which is helpful, and at home. OSU - Buckeyes have the better team  but we all know anything goes.
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Penn State will have as good a defense and they should be semi-competent on offense with a new QB. That's a problem because Anthony Morelli was consistently the defense's best player when he was on the field....
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- Also would have to lose three of four against Notre Dame, Illinois, MSU, and Purdue. This is pretty much why I don't think six losses is in order. MSU might be the best team on that list and that's how you know it's not a scary list. Purdue's D is so bad I'm tempted to put them in the Minny/NWern category. ND might still suck. Illinois is down from last year, and MSU still hasn't lost the little brother mentality.
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Illinois isn't going to be down from last year, last year was a complete and total out of nowhere type season that took everyone by surprise. They won't sneak up on everyone this year, but they will still be good enough to compete for the Big Ten title.
Michigan will be 8-4 at best with a couple close calls. I'm already saying 7-5 and I think I might be generous......