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Old 02-21-2009, 01:18 AM
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Navy was held to the following point totals last year:

23: Ball State - 29th, 20.5 ppg (+ 1.5)
23: Rutgers - 19th, 18.8 ppg (+ 4.2)
21: Pittsburgh - 35th, 21.5 ppg (+ 0.5)
21: Notre Dame - 42nd, 22.2 ppg (- 1.2)
16: Northern Illinois - 14th, 18.0 ppg (- 2.0)
19: Wake Forest - 16th, 18.3 ppg (+ 0.7)

Now, you can say that those were some pretty good scoring defenses, statistically, they faced. But note that they really never exceeded those opponents' average points-given-up.

You can summize that, given Navy's offensive output against good scoring defenses, since our scoring defense averaged 13.9 ppg last season (6th in FBS) we should be able to hold Navy to 12 to 17 points. And since Pittsburgh put up 35 points on Navy in the first half, Ball State put up 35, and Air Force, Temple, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest all put up 27+ points on them (of those four, only Air Force at #52 was in the top half of scoring offenses), our chances of putting up 30+ points on them are good.

My early prediction is 34-16, Ohio State.
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