Game Seven: Ohio State 41, Indiana 10 (final)

[JXC]

You know what is interesting? EVERY, and i mean EVERY road game that Jim Tressel has coached...the result of the game has been in doubt until the end of the game....except for both road games against Indiana. We play well at Indiana...but who doesn't? LOL! I never realized until today how badly we have struggled on the road every year under Tressel. I really wonder why that is...but I feel confident at Indiana. Heck, i'm going to the game, as I always do, because it's like a home game for us.

[JXC]

Boone is for real...can you believe how good he looked in his first real game? By the time we go to Ann Arbor, I expect this kid to be in there for almost all snaps. He's so big and strong. Watching him play makes me really REALLY excited about our O-line for the rest of this year, and definitely next year.

[scooter1369]

I'd really like to know what's going on with Mitchum. Why is he not cracking the two deep yet?

[timBUCK2]

Originally Posted by scarletngrey77

Malcom Jenkins is going to get the start because of the injury to Tyler Everett.

Any word on when Everett will be back in the starting rotation?

[scarletngrey11]

I havent heard anything, but probably a week, two at the most...

[Bucktastic]

I will be there as well XC.

It is awesome to hear the O-H-I-O go around their entire stadium.....and any cheer they try and block it out, doesnt work.

[buckzip]

Originally Posted by scooter1369

I'd really like to know what's going on with Mitchum. Why is he not cracking the two deep yet?

I agree. Person too.

Both of these guys were supposed to be studs. Yet they are behind walkons on the depth chart. This is their second year.
Rehring was the lowest rated of the lineman, and he has the only real playing time.

[DaddyBigBucks]

On page 2 of this thread I gave my weekly breakdown, showing how this weeks teams are doing, relative to their opponents averages.

Maybe a better way of looking at differential output is to compare your opponents output against you with their average output against everybody BUT you. In other words, factor the game against you OUT of their average, and how did you do compared to THAT?

To be honest, the reason that I waited until this game to break things down this way is because it makes a great team (OSU) stand in even sharper relief against an average team (Indi).

For comparison purposes, I'll repeat the numbers that include the head-head matchups.

INDIANA OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES

• 17.36 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
• 2.36 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 21.99 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
• 2.94 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)

INDIANA DEFENSE GIVES UP

• 9.53 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
• 3.50 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 11.51 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
• 4.27 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)

.................................................. ..................................

OSU OFFENSE GAINS/SCORES

• 6.83 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)
• 5.67 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 7.74 yards more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)
• 6.75 points more than opponents give up on average (head-head factored out)

OSU DEFENSE GIVES UP

• 171.03 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored in)
• 19.54 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored in)

but,

• 201.49 yards fewer than opponents gain on average (head-head factored out)
• 23.12 points fewer than opponents score on average (head-head factored out)

.................................................. ..................................................

Things to note:

• Only the Ohio State defense changed significantly.
• Holding people > 200 yds / 20 pts below their averages is SICK

Another thing to point out:

With their games against OSU factored out, our opponents are averaging 475.99 YPG. Let that sink in for a minute. When was the last time that a team played offenses like that for half a season? That is ridiculous.



So how does this analysis change the comparison between the teams???

Take OSU's offensive output and subtract the amount that Indiana holds their opponents below their averages. Then do the same for Indiana's offense vs. OSU's defense and the result is the following:

OSU yards: 359.67 (avg O) - 11.51 (Indiana D) = 348.16 Yards
OSU points: 26.5 (avg score) - 4.27 (Indiana D) = 22.23 Points

Indiana yards: 410.67 - 201.49 = 209.18 yards
Indiana points: 29.0 - 23.12 = 5.88 points


When you add to this the fact that Indiana's differential numbers are inflated by having played a IAA team, this game shapes up to be a one-sided bloodbath.

[Pheasant]

Good analysis, but come on. It's Indiana, do we really need it?
We're going to effing kill them. I hope we don't run the ball too much, because I'm still not sold on our passing game. This would be a good opportunity for the QB and receivers to get on the same page, make some more plays and get a little more confidence.
I'm going to venture a guess at the final score.....how does 48-6 sound?

[gregorylee]

Let's hope that your #'s pan out, thanks for doing the work. That is pretty cool to read.

If we only beat them by 15 though, I think we all will be slightly dissappointed

[Zurp]

Originally Posted by FindlayBucks

I'm going to venture a guess at the final score.....how does 48-6 sound?

That sounds pretty good. But try this one on: 571-3. How does that fit?

Just kidding. My prediction: 37-10. (A couple of field goals from inside the 5 and a late touchdown by Indiana against the Bucks' cheerleaders makes the score much closer than the game is.)

[buckeyeboy]

Originally Posted by BB73

Yeah, but I think it's only on what they call ESPN-Plus. Which means local channels in most of the Big-10 viewing area, and Gameplan, but not national ESPN or ESPN2 channels..

No, this one is actually on regular ESPN. Which means our fellow fans throughout the country will be able to watch.

[AirForceBuck]

I must say, I am very suprised with Jenkins. He has played like a veteran, no way can you even imagine him being a true frosh after watching him play. Also, I did a report on Boone this weekened for my journalism class, titled it "Boone: The right fresh-man." and looking at his high school stats and what-not, the boy is amazing and looks to continue his success.

[jwinslow]

Rivals definitely shouldn't be the first place you check for the two deep. They are a national network which struggles to update the offer lists (which is their main task), let alone make sure there are no errors in the two deep. The O-zone is a better choice, usually. I find it humorous that OSU forced them to remove the name that made them sound like an official site of the university, yet they grant them the most permission and access to players and photos. Just an ironic twist.

Originally Posted by buckzip

I agree. Person too.

Both of these guys were supposed to be studs. Yet they are behind walkons on the depth chart. This is their second year.
Rehring was the lowest rated of the lineman, and he has the only real playing time.

Not breaking into the two deep by their second year is hardly a sign of being a bust, especially when we have a monstrous diamond in the rough named Rehring and some 5-star OL named Boone.

[AirForceBuck]

I agree JWins, Rivals is horrible. Scout has never went bankrupt (like Rivals) and actually hosts the All-American HS game.

Per Dispatch, Boone is the likely candidate with Barton "questionable" for this weekends clash against the Hoosiers. Also, it is confirmed (per Dispatch) that Everett who is out with a neck injury will be replaced with frosh Jenkins.