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Imperfect contenders
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Posted: August 17, 2006
When all else fails, ask the old guy. He tried to wrap his hands around it, tried to find a way to explain the utter magnificence of the complete unknown.
"I don't think," Bobby Bowden says, pausing for effect, "I've ever seen a season where so many teams have a chance."
Here's a guy who started this coaching thing in the 1950s, when South Georgia Junior College paid him a couple thousand dollars to do it -- if he'd be the athletic director, too. He has won a few games in five decades, seen some wild, unpredictable things as he built Florida State into a powerhouse and collected a couple of national titles along the way.
Yeah, Bowden is fairly qualified to give an educated assessment of this season.
"Everybody has a flaw," he says.
It's perfectly imperfect. It's the season any fan worth his weight in message board posts dreams about. No more Leinarts, Bushes or Youngs but plenty of the deliciously unknown.
For the first time since Bowden didn't have a fleck of gray hair, none of us knows what on God's green earth is going to happen this season. No clear leader, no certain team or teams more likely to play for the national title than others. At this point, more than a handful of teams -- OK, way more than a handful -- could be in suburban Phoenix in January playing for it all. And that's after Rhett Bomar went old-school OU and watched the grass grow as his summer job.
Want more proof? Let's ask another senior citizen.
"There's not a team out there," says Penn State coach Joe Paterno, "where you say, 'They look like they've got it all.' "
Ah, perfection. It's Pam Anderson (her Baywatch days), cold suds and hot brats rolled into one. It's Miami vs. FSU kicking off on Labor Day weekend and Notre Dame vs. Southern California on the last weekend of the regular season -- and a ton of action in between.
For now, the lead dog is Notre Dame. Heck, we don't know why. But if you have to pick someone in a perfectly imperfect season, why not go with the Dome? After that, there's USC, LSU, Auburn, West Virginia, Ohio State, Texas, California, Florida State, TCU, Louisville, Oklahoma ... wait, who threw the Sooners back in there?
"You may see someone get there that no one had any idea would get there," says Georgia Tech coach Chan Gailey.
Look at the bright side: At least you won't be surprised.
Dissecting the various (im)perfect contenders:
Ohio State The flaw: The front seven. Two starters return from a defense that mauled opponents last season and allowed a developing offense to make mistakes. It won't work that way this year. When the defense makes a mistake, the offense will be forced to play catch-up.
The flaw exposed: This is the Big Ten, where power-oriented offenses eat up inexperienced defenses. Teams can pound away at the interior with a strong running game and throw it over the top when the safeties are forced to play close to the line in run support. "Run the ball right at them; shorten the game," says one Big Ten coach. "They don't have the lateral speed at linebacker that they've had the last two years. They're going to be exposed on the perimeter by anyone who has speed in the backfield."
The fix: First, a brief history lesson: In five seasons under Jim Tressel, Ohio State never has finished worse than 20th in the nation in scoring defense. A similar finish will put this team in the national title game. The two returning starters, tackles Quinn Pitcock and David Patterson, form one of the nation's best interior combos. There's no better place to have strength in a young defense than up the gut, where inexperienced linebackers can be protected from consistently engaging 300-pound linemen. Besides, with linebacker Marcus Freeman -- he might have started last season had he not sustained a season-ending knee injury -- and star junior college transfer Larry Grant, the Buckeyes aren't losing much at the position. USC
The flaw: No Reggie Bush, no Matt Leinart, no LenDale White. Now that's a flaw. USC was so dangerous, so efficient the past three years because those three simply didn't make mistakes. Now the quarterback and tailback -- the two most important positions on offense -- potentially could be guys who have yet to take a snap in college football. That's how highly the staff thinks of redshirt freshman Mark Sanchez, who will battle junior John David Booty to be the starter at quarterback, and the three freshmen who will compete for the starting tailback job.
The flaw exposed: No matter who starts in the backfield, this unit will be inexperienced. But stopping the Trojans won't be as simple as blitzing in every pass situation or crowding the line of scrimmage to overload the running game. "You've got to mix it up," says one Pac-10 defensive coordinator. "I don't care who's playing quarterback; they haven't seen the zones, dogs and combos (defenses) that Leinart knew like the back of his hand." Another issue: Not every freshman plays with the poise and presence of Bush and White, so fumbles and missed protections could be a problem, especially in big games.
The fix: USC coach Pete Carroll likes to say the best players play -- no matter how young. But even he realizes a duo like Bush and White only comes along once every forever. The Trojans will play junior tailback Chauncey Washington early and slowly bring along the freshman tailbacks while they learn pass protections. Booty can, at the very least, manage the game and get the ball to his three dangerous receivers -- or he could play much better. There were some on staff in 2003 who thought Leinart would be more of a guy who managed the game instead of taking it over. Back then, the passing game consisted of short-to-intermediate routes and three-step drops until Leinart became more comfortable in the system. Expect more of the same. LSU
The flaw: A three-headed quarterback controversy. JaMarcus Russell has the most experience, Matt Flynn has the moxie, and Ryan Perrilloux has the most ability. Coach Les Miles says he'll make a decision in fall camp and stick with it. But they all say that. Tennessee coach Phil Fulmer did last season, then yanked Erik Ainge after two quarters of the season opener. We all know what that dissolved into. Bottom line: If you have two -- or in this case, three -- quarterbacks, you don't have one.
The flaw exposed: There really isn't a process to attack this flaw. It's more a matter of waiting for self-inflicted wounds to fester. If a defense can force mistakes early or dictate the tempo of the game, doubt will begin to creep in for the coach making the decision of which quarterback plays. "Any coach who says they like having two guys with equal ability competing for the quarterback job is lying," says one SEC coach. "It's frightening because you're always second-guessing yourself on who should be playing."
The fix: Step 1: Whittle the competition to two. There has been talk of putting Perrilloux at another position; that's not going to sit well with the former megarecruit. Step 2: Make a decision and stand firm. When was the last time a team won the national title with a two-quarterback system? No matter how uncomfortable a game situation might get, don't waver and make a desperate, confidence-deflating switch. Auburn
The flaw: An undersized defense built on speed. It's hard to argue with Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville, a longtime defensive coordinator and Jimmy Johnson disciple. Tuberville wants quick, agile defensive linemen and linebackers. The theory is lateral movement and makeup speed are more important than size and quick defensive linemen can shoot gaps instead of engaging and battling.
The flaw exposed: Plop in a tape of last year's Capital One Bowl. OK, maybe Auburn was bored. Maybe the Tigers felt they should've been playing in a BCS game. Doesn't matter. Slow, plodding, muscle-bound Wisconsin beat up Aubie on the line of scrimmage and dominated the game. Auburn gave up 548 yards of offense, 247 of which were on the ground (5.9 yards per carry). The total offense was Wisconsin's high for the season and 56 more yards than Temple gave up to the Badgers. You can bet other teams in the SEC have watched that Capital One Bowl tape over and over.
The fix: You can't get bigger overnight. In fact, Auburn got smaller at linebacker, where Will Herring moved from safety to give the team a sure tackler at the position. Tackle Josh Thompson is up to 300 pounds, and star JC recruit Greg Smith will give the team a 315-pound anchor on the interior. But Auburn doesn't want to veer too far from what helped it win 22 of its past 25 games and 16 of 17 SEC games. If it ain't broke, just tweak it and hope for the best. Texas
The flaw: Two freshman quarterbacks. Want to blame someone? Blame Vince Young. Texas is in this position -- with no experienced quarterback to lead a talented team -- because it was nearly impossible to recruit quarterbacks while Young was becoming the best player in school history. Now the Longhorns will lean on redshirt freshman Colt McCoy and true freshman Jevan Snead to defend their national title. Neither, of course, has taken a snap in college football.
The flaw exposed: These are the game plans defensive coordinators love to scheme. Freshman quarterbacks are going to make mistakes; it's a given. It's all about pressure, about forcing quick decisions from young players whose initial reaction is to panic and try to use physical ability -- arm strength, leg speed -- to get out of a jam. More times than not, it leads to bad plays at best, turnovers at worst.
The fix: Texas went through this with Young and Chris Simms early in their careers, worked through their mistakes and had big seasons. Those teams, though, needed Simms and Young to make a difference on offense. This team doesn't need that from the young quarterbacks. The defense is among the top three in the nation, and the offense is loaded with elite skill players. In other words, McCoy and/or Snead simply have to manage the game and stay out of trouble. West Virginia
The flaw: The inevitable overexposure of the spread offense. WVU coach Rich Rodriguez admits as much: Defenses eventually will find ways to slow his scheme. Heck, he invited it this spring when he let several schools stop by Morgantown to learn the offense. The win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was impressive, but it's far from an indicator of the spread's ability against athletic, fast defenses.
The flaw exposed: The spread option is, as much as anything, a misdirection offense. The key is to get defenses to overpursue and make individual defenders play outside their specific responsibilities. Translation: Too many defenders try to do too much and no one ends up doing anything. So how do you beat it? Interior linemen shoot gaps to disrupt zone-blocking schemes and linebackers push plays to the perimeter where defensive backs help in run support. It's a strange combination: Linemen must be aggressive and linebackers must be patient.
The fix: Rodriguez's focus has been more on quarterback Patrick White's accuracy than finding new plays for his offense. As a runner in the scheme, there is no one in the nation more dangerous than White. But his accuracy in the passing game must improve so teams don't load up near the line of scrimmage. The WVU staff has tweaked White's mechanics (he was aiming balls too much last season) and convinced him of the value of moving in the pocket instead of running at the first sign of trouble. Remember, Young became truly gifted within the Texas spread option when he became more comfortable as a passer.
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