[wigmon]

I'm sure those guys (Paul/Felton) did take more 3's than Conley, but I don't see how that affects whether they are consistant shooters or not. If you shoot a lot and are cold, your percentage goes down, if you shoot a lot when you are hot, it goes up. Conley did not take many 3-pt shots, but they were all pretty much right at the line and without a hand in his face as thats about the only way he took one.

Harris and Jay Williams were very good college 3-pt shooters and had much more developed games than Conley does at this point probably because the spent at least 3+ years in college. Ford is probably the best comparison as he was a pretty poor college shooter. He was the 8th pick in a draft that outside the top 5-6 was pretty weak. The 2007 draft is very deep except at the PG position and as such I think Conley being about equal to Ford and the top PG in the draft puts him in the 8-14 range in my opinion depending on draft needs.

If Conley develops a consistant jumper (doesn't even need to be 3-pt range), he will be a all-star in the league and considered a great value as an 8 pick. If he doesn't, he will still be a solid PG, but teams will look back and wonder why they passed on a big man like Hawes or a great scorer like Young (Thad or Nick). Thats a pretty big risk to take on a 19-year old, but GM's do it all the time, so it wouldn't even surprise me to see him go top 5.