Basketball Recruiting Projections/General Discussions

[Bucky Katt]

Originally Posted by LitlBuck

There was some discussion of this is the Indiana game thread but I thought that I would bring it back over here where it probably belongs. I, like some others, would almost like to see Thad recruit players who are going to be here for more than one year. Sure, it was nice last year when we had the three super freshman but to see them all go after one year and not leave much continuity to the program troubles me. Maybe last year was an unusual one because we also had 2 seniors leave but what's going to happen after the 2008 season when we will probably lose Mullens, Buford, and Kosta (assuming he stays one more year).

It seems as though other schools can recruit players who stay around for at least three years and are consistently in the top 10 in the Country. Not only do we lose the players will we also lose the continuity. Again maybe this year's team was unique because we lost five players but I don't think we will have the continuity next year and then we will lose the really good players and have to start over. I just don't know where you draw the line.

I'd give it some more time before I get concerned about it. This is only the second really good recruiting class here for Matta and there is a notable lack of depth and talent from the previous classes. When you look at the 04 (Foster, Jackson-Wilson, Twigs, Butler) and 05 (Bell, Mayes) classes and see what actually materialized from those classes, it's not surprising that there is a lack of upper-classmen production and leadership. One very good 4-year player, and one 4-year role player. (EDIT here - not intending to discount Foster. I loved that guy )

Hopefully there is enough of a mix of non-lottery pick talent in the most recent classes and future classes. Sure, losing Buford, Mullens, and Koufos will sting after next season, assuming that's what transpires, but there will be notably more experience and talent returning. Theoretically speaking, Lighty will be back for his senior season, Turner, Lauderdale, Wallace, Diebler back for their junior seasons. Hill back for his third season (I think he has two years left after this one). Plus, presumably throw in Crater and Offutt for their sophomore years. Even though I'm sure they won't all be superstars, there are 7 experienced guard/wing players there. Not much depth on the front line, but hopefully that will be addressed in the '09 class.

As long as they keep bringing in classes that aren't comprised exclusively of one-and-done type guys, I don't see it being a major issue. Obviously the early-entries have hurt OSU this season, but I'd venture to say that the '05 class, such as it was, is just as significant of a contributor to the "struggles" this season.

And how nice is it that a 16-8 record is considered struggling now? This team could still conceivably end up with a 20-win season in what is considered an off-year by most. A far cry from the much-leaner Obie years.

[GrizzlyBuck]

Dang, Bucky Katt beat me to it and made me look doltish

Originally Posted by LitlBuck

There was some discussion of this is the Indiana game thread but I thought that I would bring it back over here where it probably belongs. I, like some others, would almost like to see Thad recruit players who are going to be here for more than one year. Sure, it was nice last year when we had the three super freshman but to see them all go after one year and not leave much continuity to the program troubles me. Maybe last year was an unusual one because we also had 2 seniors leave but what's going to happen after the 2008 season when we will probably lose Mullens, Buford, and Kosta (assuming he stays one more year).

It seems as though other schools can recruit players who stay around for at least three years and are consistently in the top 10 in the Country. Not only do we lose the players will we also lose the continuity. Again maybe this year's team was unique because we lost five players but I don't think we will have the continuity next year and then we will lose the really good players and have to start over. I just don't know where you draw the line.

I agree, LitlBuck, but I think that this is a learning experience for Matta, and from his history, I think he'll pass with flying colors.

Let's look at next years squad (doing this on the fly, so please forgive my ineptitude)

Mullens, Koufos (crossed fingers), Lauderdale, Madsen, Turner, Lighty, Wallace, Buford, Diebs, Hill, Offutt, Crater

After next year, we could lose Mullens, KK, Buford, and possibly Lighty (if he has a coming out year on O next year, I don't see it though with so much around him)

That would leave a solid nucleus if we add a super talent, like Sydney for example, for a real good '09-'10 team.

I wrote about this in the Indiana game thread, that we may have some down years (NCAA bubble years aren't too down though) amongst elite type years, at least until Matta and the staff tweak their recruiting to make sure the cupboard is not lacking in certain staples (pure shooting, penetration, rebounding beast)

[Bucky Katt]

Originally Posted by GrizzlyBuck

I agree, LitlBuck, but I think that this is a learning experience for Matta, and from his history, I think he'll pass with flying colors.

Let's look at next years squad (doing this on the fly, so please forgive my ineptitude)

Mullens, Koufos (crossed fingers), Lauderdale, Madsen, Turner, Lighty, Wallace, Buford, Diebs, Hill, Offutt, Crater

After next year, we could lose Mullens, KK, Buford, and possibly Lighty (if he has a coming out year on O next year, I don't see it though with so much around him)

That would leave a solid nucleus if we add a super talent, like Sydney for example, for a real good '09-'10 team.

I wrote about this in the Indiana game thread, that we may have some down years (NCAA bubble years aren't too down though) amongst elite type years, at least until Matta and the staff tweak their recruiting to make sure the cupboard is not lacking in certain staples (pure shooting, penetration, rebounding beast)

Why didn't you just copy and paste mine word-for-word, you filthy plagiarist!





EDIT - great minds, thinking alike, typing at the same time or something, right?

[GrizzlyBuck]

Originally Posted by Bucky Katt

Why didn't you just copy and paste mine word-for-word, you filthy plagiarist!





EDIT - great minds, thinking alike, typing at the same time or something, right?

Yep, check my edit, besides, I showered earlier, so filthy I'm not

[LitlBuck]

Originally Posted by Bucky Katt

I'd give it some more time before I get concerned about it.

The problem is that's where we lose the continuity. I will agree that will have good wing players in 09 but we will have no depth at all across the front line or we will have freshman.

I guess you are correct. I was just have to trust Matta because he has done it before but these years team has been so frustrating because they have not played well together makes me worry about the future.

[BuckeyeSoldier]

I look at it like this...

We had no superstar talent... matta comes in and starts bringing in PERFECT recruiting classes IF you are a national caliber team... but we werent.. Not all of his players are one and done obviously.. he gets a few one and dones and a few four year guys... the first couple years its gonna be hit or miss because our 4 year guys are freshmen and sophmores.. once he has his classes into their 4 and 5th seasons i expect the early departures to hurt FAR less as we will have seasoned vets backing up the superstar freshmen..
I am FAR from worried about our teams future.

[LitlBuck]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeSoldier

I am FAR from worried about our teams future.

For what you are saying to happen is going to take 3-4 years if you want Ohio State to be consistently ranked in the top 10 in the country. I look at this year's team and I believe that one of the reasons it is not performing that well is because the players have not played that long together. Maybe this year's team will make the dance and that will be fine but I do not think they will go very far if they do make it. Next year if KK stays I think we will be fine if Crater, Mullens, and Buford live up to the reputation but having a freshman PG concerns me. After next year, we will lose our best players and have to be depend on certain freshman to fill in certain roles. Maybe I am impatient but I am not just looking at this year's team but also the next couple years.

[BengalsAndBucks]

While I realize that 3 freshman departures from 2006 hurt us, you have to realize that we really only expected one or maybe two of those. Sure, everyone knew Oden would only be a 1 year guy, and many thought Cook would also be one and done. But almost no one saw Conley leaving after one year. If Matta were to bring in 2 one and done superstars and 3 multi-year role players every year, we would be top 5 in the country every year. Hell, if he were to bring in 3 one and done superstars and 2 multi-year role players we could win titles year in and year out.

The biggest problem with last year was that we had an early departure at the one position that we really lack depth. If Conley is here right now, we are a top 15 team or better. And since, when Matta was signing the 2007 class, he figured that Conley would be here for 2007, he didn't recruit a point guard. Conley had an incredible tournament, led us to a national championship game, and earned top 4 pick money, so he went to the draft, and we are left with no point guard depth. It was a freak occurence, and is not something that is going to happen every year.

Look at 2007- 1 potential one and done, 4 multi-year contributors. 2008- 2 potential one and dones, 2 multi-year contributors. That kind of a formula will win us championships very soon.

Lets not get all worn out of shape because we are recruiting some of the best players in college basketball. I can think of a lot worse problems to have.

[jimotis4heisman]

Originally Posted by Bucky Katt

I'd give it some more time before I get concerned about it. This is only the second really good recruiting class here for Matta and there is a notable lack of depth and talent from the previous classes. When you look at the 04 (Foster, Jackson-Wilson, Twigs, Butler) and 05 (Bell, Mayes) classes and see what actually materialized from those classes, it's not surprising that there is a lack of upper-classmen production and leadership. One very good 4-year player, and one 4-year role player. (EDIT here - not intending to discount Foster. I loved that guy )

Hopefully there is enough of a mix of non-lottery pick talent in the most recent classes and future classes. Sure, losing Buford, Mullens, and Koufos will sting after next season, assuming that's what transpires, but there will be notably more experience and talent returning. Theoretically speaking, Lighty will be back for his senior season, Turner, Lauderdale, Wallace, Diebler back for their junior seasons. Hill back for his third season (I think he has two years left after this one). Plus, presumably throw in Crater and Offutt for their sophomore years. Even though I'm sure they won't all be superstars, there are 7 experienced guard/wing players there. Not much depth on the front line, but hopefully that will be addressed in the '09 class.

As long as they keep bringing in classes that aren't comprised exclusively of one-and-done type guys, I don't see it being a major issue. Obviously the early-entries have hurt OSU this season, but I'd venture to say that the '05 class, such as it was, is just as significant of a contributor to the "struggles" this season.

And how nice is it that a 16-8 record is considered struggling now? This team could still conceivably end up with a 20-win season in what is considered an off-year by most. A far cry from the much-leaner Obie years.

id love to see a mili style matrix for roster players, or some sort of roster by year or something, ill give greenies for it

[crazybuckfan40]

I am with most on this topic...I think the problem this year had more to do with staff not expecting Conley to leave, and the lack of upperclassmen on our team due to lack of 04 and 05 classes providing that depth...

Last years team was great because we had two seniors, 3 juniors and then 3 one and dones...That made up 6 pro players...

This year we had 1 returning starter and 3 other guys with a decent amount of time...

Next year we will have 3 returning starters, probably 3 lottery picks...

This years team just hasn't gelled together, for more reasons than one, playing styles, personalities, etc...

i know there are alot of thought thrown in here, but to sum it all up, I am all for recruiting the best of the best even if we only get 1 year out of them...As long as the staff can stay on top of and keep depth at most positions and bringing in guys to fill depth we will be looking at championships moreso than we would with not bringing in guys like them...

Let me give an example...Say we didn't recruit Conley, Cook, Oden last year due to them being one and done, and say we bring in a class of Hunter, Lighty, to go along with guys that would be up and down like the frosh this year we are looking at a not so good season last year...probably much like a season we are having this year...Then we have all them back this year so they are in the same boat as Lighty is this year say...

Then say our lineup this year looks like:

Jamar
Recruit #1 from last year (so)
Lighty
Hunter
Recruit #2 from last year (so)


Bench:

Twig
Recruit #3
Diebler
Turner
Dallas


So we switch this years season with last year in terms of struggling, instead of playing for a national championship and only losing 4 games and this year while we would be improved, we don't bring in a guy like KK because he looked like a one and done, and we are probably looking at a 6'9'' type guy at C and a spitting image of Lighty at the 2g in terms of ups and downs this year...

So we are probably still struggling this year but maybe better than we are, say maybe we are 19-5 which is better, but then next year we aren't looking at a top 5 type season as we bring in guys like Offut and Crater...

But really the nature of the game is anymore, even if they aren't one and done there is a good chance that most of your better players are only going to be 2-3 year type players if they are pretty good...

So to sum this up we would be looking at last year this year and next year as they will go down...With teams with superstars on them, and if Conley doesn't go pro like noone expected 3 very good top 10 type seasons, instead of 2 years like we are having now with maybe a top 15 type season, but never a chance to play for a NC...Take your pick...

[GrizzlyBuck]

I was going to post this in the Devon Moore thread, but figured it fit better here. Moore looks like a good prospect and may get an offer, but it must be a royal PIA for Matta and staff to really know what they need to fill the roster and round out the talent. Of course by recruiting, and landing, prospects with one and done potential, this problem (not a bad problem to have) is self inflicted.

I don't pretend to be an expert in anything, let alone college basketball, so take this with a ton of salt grains but I'm a little concerned about the Buckeyes outside shooting next year as well. We lose our best pure shooter this year and although I would expect improvement out of Diebs, Turner, and Lighty in this regard (and hopefully KK) the only recruit (that I know of) who is a going to be a consistent 3pt threat is Buford, and I think he is more like Diebler in that he is more of a scorer than a pure shooter.

I'm just a little concerned that elite teams with a good inside presence and long athletes on the wings, will zone us and try to make us shoot them out of the zone, and I just hope we can.

Just wondering if in the future, Matta and staff will try to bring in some pure gunners to round out the teams.

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

I am more concerned with the point guard position than finding shooting guards...expect us to be more explosive with Buford and Mullens on the court next year...

[GrizzlyBuck]

Originally Posted by OSUBasketballJunkie

I am more concerned with the point guard position than finding shooting guards...expect us to be more explosive with Buford and Mullens on the court next year...

I don't disagree, I just sort of assume we'll be ok with our point guard options next year (I use the the word assume -ass out of me- for a reason) It is just that when I see teams like Duke and Purdue nailing three after three, I wonder how good the Bucks would be if they had guys who could make three's with even a little consistency.

As to Mullens and Buford, hopefully BJ adjust to the higher level of competition quickly as I'm not sure he has faced many good big men in HS, though AAU competition counts as well. Buford looks like a very good offensive player, good on D as well, so he should give the Bucks more options. One thing about Buford though is that in HS, Lighty was a 30 point scorer as well (if I remember correctly) yet that has yet to translate at the collegiate level.

I am glad that Crater seems to be playing very well as a pure point against some very good competition, not just in games, but in practice. If we get good point guard play with guys who can create opportunities for others and themselves, the Bucks should really be a force next year.

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

I don't disagree, I just sort of assume we'll be ok with our point guard options next year (I use the the word assume -ass out of me- for a reason) It is just that when I see teams like Duke and Purdue nailing three after three, I wonder how good the Bucks would be if they had guys who could make three's with even a little consistency.

Good point. Do I see Buford as a kid who can score from the perimeter? I do, but I also see him as a pure scorer in the mold of Cook.

s to Mullens and Buford, hopefully BJ adjust to the higher level of competition quickly as I'm not sure he has faced many good big men in HS, though AAU competition counts as well.

Biggest difference for a big man is getting used to playing against size every night. B.J. has displayed the ability in top AAU camps to dominate against size. His transition my take a month or so, but he is better offensively than Oden was as a HS senior. Not saying the better overall player, but definetly better offensively.

I am glad that Crater seems to be playing very well as a pure point against some very good competition, not just in games, but in practice. If we get good point guard play with guys who can create opportunities for others and themselves, the Bucks should really be a force next year.

Crater is the key to the season in my mind next year. He is a pass first point guard.

[LitlBuck]

when I see teams like Duke and Purdue nailing three after three

First, I have watched Purdue and Duke play quite a few times this year in Purdue does not have the shooters like Duke. It seems as though in different games another Purdue player besides Hummel will be on from the outside.

Now, back to us. I, like Junkie, am more concerned about the PG position next year than our outside shooting. Turner and Diebler should be much better next year and hopefully Lighty will get back to form. I have heard not to worry about Buford. He will be fine as will Mullens. While BJ hasn't played against much high school competition just with his size and his athletic ability for that size he will be fine.

I just hope that Hill will show some improvement next year and that Crater will be 3/4 of Conley and that will be good enough for me.