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  #2236 (permalink)  
Old 06-18-2006, 09:33 PM
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DBB's Daily Stat Break
This will be the last in this series of Daily Stat Breaks. The next 7 installments of this feature will run on consecutive days in the week leading up to the first game.

Today's installment looks at passing the same way that I analyzed games last year: How much better did you do than everyone else on your opponents' schedules?

To answer this question for quarterbacks, I did not just average the defensive passing efficiencies for each quarterback's opponents. Rather, I took all of the passing defense numbers for each quarterback's opponents and added them together. So for Troy Smith, for instance, I added up the Attempts, Completions, Yards, Touchdowns and Interceptions that all of OSU's opponents gave up on passing defense last year (except for Miami University, against whom Troy did not play) and then calculated the passing efficiency based on those aggregate numbers.

The following table ranks the Top 13 QB's in the country based on how much better their passing efficiency was than the aggregate passing efficiency of the opponents they faced. The reason I chose the top-13 QB's is that I simply don't have the patience to do this calculation for the slugs who couldn't even manage 150 points in passing efficiency (you can afford to be judgemental when you're a shill for Troy Smith).

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 179pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=236 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 74pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3584" width=98><COL style="WIDTH: 35pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1682" span=3 width=46><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 26.25pt" height=35><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 74pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 26.25pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=98 height=35>Player</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=46>Eff.</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=46>Opp.
Eff.

</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=46>Diff.</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Vince Young</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="163.94584615384616">163.95</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="122.76491228070175">122.76</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #ebe9ed; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="41.180933873144411">41.18</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Brian Brohm</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="165.42589928057555">165.43</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="125.35193495934959">125.35</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="40.073964321225958">40.07</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Troy Smith</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="162.65316455696203">162.65</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="123.62153209109732">123.62</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="39.031632465864703">39.03</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Rudy Carpenter</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="175.01403508771929">175.01</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="139.07904018502458">139.08</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="35.934994902694712">35.93</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Drew Olson</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="161.59576719576719">161.60</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="130.84414715719063">130.84</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="30.751620038576561">30.75</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Matt Leinart</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="157.74013921113689">157.74</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="127.46479846449138">127.46</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="30.275340746645512">30.28</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Brady Quinn</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="158.39911111111113">158.40</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="128.3985812458435">128.40</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="30.000529865267623">30.00</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Phil Horvath</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="153.38099547511311">153.38</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="126.70357615894041">126.70</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="26.677419316172703">26.68</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Colt Brennan</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="155.49203883495144">155.49</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="129.87728093041909">129.88</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="25.614757904532354">25.61</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Drew Stanton</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="153.40903954802261">153.41</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="128.23270289681591">128.23</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="25.176336651206697">25.18</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Brian Johnson</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="151.00848484848487">151.01</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="128.99666760802035">129.00</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="22.011817240464524">22.01</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17>Omar Jacobs</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="150.89096573208724">150.89</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="130.0064116985377">130.01</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="20.884554033549534">20.88</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18>John Stocco</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="150.48170731707316">150.48</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="130.82984206151286">130.83</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="19.651865255560296">19.65</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

As I've said before, this type of analysis actually compares you to the other teams your opponents played; so the strength of your opponents schedules has an impact on this analysis. Playing in a conference with few other top-notch quarterbacks can make you look very good in this analysis (Big 12, Conference USA); whereas playing in a conference replete with NFL or near-NFL talent at QB can hurt you by this metric (Pac-10). On the whole though, this is a fairer analysis than raw QB efficiency rating, and gives you a better idea of how well each QB played compared to the other QBs in his conference.

Other things to note:
  • After the top 3, it drops off very sharply
  • Vince Young faced the best slate of passing defenses of the QBs on the list. But then Big-12 passing offenses weren't exactly setting the world on fire. Even Cody Hodges of Texas Tech did not make this list.
  • Troy Smith faced the 2nd best slate of passing defenses on the list. This is in spite of playing in a conference where the defenses are tested by Drew Stanton and John Stocco (both made the list) as well as Drew Tate and Bryan Cupito (20th and 21st in efficiency).
  • Troy Smith Ranks #2 among returning QBs by this metric; and Troy Smith is NOT a Conference USA "system quarterback".
  • By this metric, Troy Smith is 30% better than Brady Quinn
All Hail the Glory of Troy Smith.
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  #2237 (permalink)  
Old 06-18-2006, 09:40 PM
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Deety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'ShoeDeety is a legend of The 'Shoe
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks
This will be the last in this series of Daily Stat Breaks
Slacker.
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  #2238 (permalink)  
Old 06-18-2006, 09:46 PM
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DaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retiredDaddyBigBucks has his jersey number retired
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deety
Slacker.
OK

Just for you, I'll keep it going for another week.

Hopefully I can find 7 more nuggets worth sharing.
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Old 06-18-2006, 09:46 PM
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Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 46,432,781.38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks
EDIT: Before some killjoy reminds everyone that the final 6 games factors out the Penn State and Texas games, I would like to remind you that this also factors out Troy's 272.11 point masterpiece against MSU. That was his highest rated game of the year. Going by only the last 7 games would not have even been fair.
Even so, you could just tell said killjoy that Smith didn't play the whole Texas game (along with it being his first game in over nine months) and that the Penn State game was played in a rainstorm on the road. Not exactly "normal" conditions.
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