QB Troy Smith - 2006 Heisman Winner (Official Thread)

[DaddyBigBucks]

In the thread at this LINK, it was shown that the quarterbacks with the fewest attempts (but still the minimum 15 required to be ranked) had the lowest passing efficiency ratings, on average.

That was strictly true last year. If you list the QBs in order based on attempts per game and take any 10 consecutive QBs from the list, the group with the lowest average efficiency was the bottom 10 in terms of attempts per game.

Over the last 6 years this was also true, but there was one other group that faired as badly; the group with somewhere around 21-23 attempts per game.

Last year, being in this group was double bad, as the bottom 10 (in attempts per game) included Marcus Vick, at 22.23 attempts per game. By way of comparison, the 10th fewest attempts per game was less than 18 per game in 2000 and 2001.

Recall from a previous post that Troy Smith had 21.55 attempts per game last year, placing him in the bottom 10 in attempts per game. While his peers in this group averaged a humble rating of 115.23, Troy's rating was a manly 162.7.

To state it plainly, Troy Smith had a QB rating 47 and a half points higher than those who had a similar number of attempts per game. Last year, 47 and a half points was more than the difference between being ranked #4 (Troy Smith) and being ranked #74 (Andre Woodson of Kentucky). I can promise you that this is the only context in which Troy Smith and Andre Woodson can be mentioned in the same sentence.

All Hail the Glory of Troy Smith

[Taosman]

I love TS. But, it's hard to forget his past. Every time I see his name come up I get queasy. And pray.
We all hope THIS will be the year he leades this team to a NC.

And Santonio has been an exemplary Buckeye. And a fan favorite.

[DaddyBigBucks]

Originally Posted by Taosman

I love TS. But, it's hard to forget his past. Every time I see his name come up I get queasy. And pray.
We all hope THIS will be the year he leades this team to a NC.

And Santonio has been an exemplary Buckeye. And a fan favorite.

Let's keep in mind that his suspension at the beginning of last year was for an infraction that was, by then, several months old. If Troy stays as clean as he's been for the last 1 and a half years, if his reformation is as genuine as it appears; then his career will be a shining monument to the leadership of Jim Tressel. How many players have had those kinds of problems and experienced a legit turn-around while still in college? Very few I expect. No doubt such a transformation recommends the man himself, but there is even less doubt of the role that his coach has played in his life. Just ask Troy.

[Dryden]

Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks

Recall from a previous post that Troy Smith had 21.55 attempts per game last year, placing him in the bottom 10 in attempts per game. While his peers in this group averaged a humble rating of 115.23, Troy's rating was a manly 162.7.

I would argue that with the way that the passer efficiency rating is formulated for college football, attempts are the least significant stat in the equation. Because of the multiplicative nature of the formula, a far greater emphasis is on throwing TDs, especially long TDs, and avoiding INTs.

8.4 * YDs + 330 * TDs - 200 * INTs + 100 * COMPs / ATTs

Using Troy Smith's 2005 season as a baseline:

8.4 * 2285 + 330 * 16 - 200 * 4 + 100 * 149 / 237
or
19194 + 5280 - 800 + 14900 / 237
or
38574 / 237
or
162.75949

Troy averaged 9.64 yards per pass completion. Modifying each number down the row to show the adjusted efficiency rating under four different scenarios:

One fewer COMP (presumes loss of YDs using avg): 161.98312
One fewer TD (all other stats are equal): 161.36708
One more INT (all other stats are equal): 161.91561
One more ATT (all other stats are equal, the ATT was incomplete): 162.07563

The best way to boost a pass efficiency rating is with long pass play TDs. As mentioned, with the formula being heavily multiplicative, a long pass play TD bumps the passers' YDs, TDs, and COMPs, while not detracting with additional ATTs. So, as worked above, a COMP is worth .8, an INT is worth .8, a TD is worth 1.4, an ATT is worth about .7.

So, the big killer is throwing an INT in the red zone (duh!). If you adjust all stats on the line accordingly, presume a 10 yard completion for a TD was actually picked off in the end zone, then a passers' rating drops by over 3 full points since you must lower the YDs, COMPs, and TDs numbers while factoring in the INT.

What does all this mean? Well, obviously, I'll never dispute that Troy Smith is a great, great QB. He has a fantastic arm and he's earned that pass efficiency rating with his performance on the field. However, having threats like Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, and Ted Ginn Jr who can bust plays off for 40, 60 or even 85 yards really inflates that passer stat quick. Troy's numbers will be affected as much by how TGII handles sliding into 'Tone's #1 receiver spot than by anything TS does or can do on a football field or in a film room.

[jwinslow]

Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks

Let's keep in mind that his suspension at the beginning of last year was for an infraction that was, by then, several months old. If Troy stays as clean as he's been for the last 1 and a half years, if his reformation is as genuine as it appears; then his career will be a shining monument to the leadership of Jim Tressel. How many players have had those kinds of problems and experienced a legit turn-around while still in college? Very few I expect. No doubt such a transformation recommends the man himself, but there is even less doubt of the role that his coach has played in his life. Just ask Troy.

the infraction occurred in the spring before the 04 season.