Will scUM even compete for an NC in the next decade?

[Cornerback6]

I know this thread sounds a bit arrogant and unfair, but I just don't see it happening for the weinies. I know it's very tough to say something like this, but following the trend of scUM football and taking into account their current head coach, I can't see them in an NC game for years to come.

They put together amazing OL's year after year and usually have a top talent Qb, but they seemingly can never put together the entire package. Even when their O is kicking on all cylinders, their D is almost never top notch. Even during their best defensive seasons of late, they have never looked spectacular to me. And if defense truly wins championships (which I believe), then I think it'll be a while coming before they go to the big game. LLLloyd just doesn't seem a D-minded coach and if JT's trend of beating up on the 'weins keeps up, then they're going to have an even more difficult time making it to the NC game.

I have a friend who is a scUM fan (sorry everyone, I promise I'm not that nice to him) and even he agrees with me. I think though that scUM fans are pretty down on LLLoyd right now and that probably has something to do with it. Although he is quite the realist and perhaps he sees things like I do.

Finally, I will say that when Michigan loses, it often times comes out of the blue. I know we dropped a couple unexpected ones last year, but for the most part, (historically over the past 20 years) we have lost the tough game. scUM on the other hand tends to blow it early in the season or to a lower tier opponent like ND, MSU or Purdue when they are consistently the favorite...and usually with a booming offense.

I guess what I'm saying is that I just don't see them getting it done. They're going to be a good team forever, but it seems there is a hump now and I don't care how many Big 10 Championships they get or top 5 finishes, I just can't see them in the NC anytime in the near future. Until they put together a D like our '02 team or our potential '05 team...I just don't think they have a chance.

Feel free to tear this down...but I really put some honest thought into it.

[HUBRIDER]

Some similarity to Cooper. Early loss and bowl game failures indicate a lack off preparation or overconfidence. We saw it with Cooper in big games. This will be a tough situation to turn around as it tends to get stuck in the back of your mind and you start playing the "just don't LLLose game. I will say this at the chance I get blasted. I seriously hope that tsun will be consistantly be the number 2 team in the nation and the Big Ten. That last season game is just a killer.

[unionfutura]

For a NC title appearance a team needs to be both good and lucky. Hell even USC got lucky a few times last year, they could've easily lost to Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oregon State, and California. So in short after witnessing Michigan's 97 season, and OSU's 02 season I'm no longer in the "This team will never challenge for a NC" business ever again. Too much talent, and you never know when a team just clicks.

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Chances are they will not. They really aren't due for another title for about 43 more years.

[kippy1040]

You can be rest assured that michigan will always be a contender for the N/C, as long as Ohio State has any thing to say about it, or for that matter any of our other Big 10 schools have to say about it. Please remember that the Big10 is a very strong conference thanks to the likes of Ohio State and Michigan. It is no longer the Big 2 and Little 8. Right now J/T has Michigans number but michigan will not go away as we would like them to be. We got our heads handed to us by Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa and Purdue. The only saving grace was the way we took care of michigan in 2004. Nope. Michigan will around for aong time I'm afraid. This is what make Ohio State Football so special. Just beating Michigan.

[Cornerback6]

Originally Posted by kippy1040

Michigan will around for aong time I'm afraid.

I know they're going to be around...that's why I said they would in the first place. What I'm suggesting is that they're in a rut is all. They're going to be good a long time, that's common sense. BUT, if JT beats them again this year in AA, I wouldn't be at all afraid to say that they've hit a Cooper like wall of sorts.

We will see. I just don't think they'll put together a good enough D to bring an NC home. They're loaded with talent every year...they just haven't put together a D that has truly impressed me for some time now. They're offense, that's a different story.

[bucknut11]

First off, they have been contending for one the last few years. Not in the NC game, but close in 03 and 04.

You have to assume they will at least contend for a few. As much as we all hate them, they are too good of a program to not do so. I'd imagine that back in 2000 they were saying the same thing about us as we were beginning to reel. Shortly thereafter, our school changed directions with the hiring of JT and suddenly we were back in the perennial hunt for a NC. The same will be true up north. They will not settle for "failing" seasons under lloyd much longer and could look to do the same thing we did - hire a new coach and redirect the program, getting them out of that "rut."

[Hodge]

Originally Posted by bucknut11

They will not settle for "failing" seasons under lloyd much longer and could look to do the same thing we did - hire a new coach and redirect the program, getting them out of that "rut."

I kind of like llloyd and their "rut" to be honest.

[BuckeyeBiz]

I think the bucks hand it to them in Ann Arbor this year and they will not beat us next year in our house with another solid team. That would put Loyd at 1-5 against the man. I don't think Michigan could hanlde that record and Carr would finally be out the door. Michigan will still be considered Nat'l Title contenders because year after year they have solid top 10 recruting classes. We all know that they are not using that talent the best they could however. I would not be suprised to start hearing talks of the big 3 with Iowa becoming a power house.

[MililaniBuckeye]

It depends upon what your definition of "compete" is. If you mean a situation where at the time of The Game a win against us would put them in a position to be in the national title game, I'd say yes. They were #7 when we popped them last season and if they'd been #5 or higher, a win against us would've put them in a possible situation for the title game (USC, Oklahoma, Auburn, etc., could've lost their games later that day or in the following week). If OSU and/or scUM is the the top 5 entering The Game, a win gives them a solid chance. I would say that within the next decade we'll play a scUM team ranked in the top 5.

[jimotis4heisman]

theyve been to back to back bcs bowls...id say they are playing at a real good level.

[jwinslow]

I agree with Mili. They will compete for a NC in the way that the 03 & 04 Sooners did. They clearly get enough hype and ratings to make it there, but they really aren't good enough to be in that game (and again we'll complain that a more deserving candidate, ala Auburn, should have been there)

[Steve19]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeBiz

I think the bucks hand it to them in Ann Arbor this year and they will not beat us next year in our house with another solid team. That would put Loyd at 1-5 against the man.

And brighten our lives like nothing else possibly could!

[TheMile]

Originally Posted by Cornerback6

I know this thread sounds a bit arrogant and unfair

That's good to hear. Hopefully you understand that I'll have to respond in kind.

Originally Posted by Cornerback6

I just don't see it following the trend of scUM football and taking into account their current head coach, I can't see them in an NC game for years to come.

Which trend? The trend of winning the Big 10 the last two years? The trend of our offense wildly overachieving with a true freshman backfield? The trend where we make a BCS bowl 3 out of the 7 years it's been around? How about 1997, and our #4 finish in 2003?

My point is not to make light of the obvious bad trends like our defense or those stupid early road losses. Those are very bad things. My point is simply that we're nonetheless still a top program, and any top program can win a MNC with a with a lot of luck, since the better team doesn't always win.

Originally Posted by Cornerback

I think though that scUM fans are pretty down on LLLoyd right now and that probably has something to do with it.

This isn't true. Some are down on Carr, but no where close to a majority are. Herrmann is an entirely different story. We all want him gone.

With respect to Carr's 1-3 record vs. Tressel, I simply see it this way: OSU has had a full resurgence lately, and the home team is 3-1 in the last four years. Sounds about right to me, especially given OSU's talent and success over the last four years.

Now, if OSU beats us at home this year, you'll see, deservedly so, a whole lot of handwringing. 2 out of 3 losses at home would be really bad, and the Cooper comparisons would gain much legitimacy.

Originally Posted by Cornerback

..I don't care how many Big 10 Championships they get or top 5 finishes, I just can't see them in the NC anytime in the near future.

Once you're in the top 5 or winning conference championships, any team just needs a little bit of luck to make it to the MNC. Look at last year. Both Purdue and Wisconsin had real shots at making a run, and neither team was all that great.

Here, I'll predict our chance of going undefeated next year, using a method I'm stealing from a poster at CFN's forum:

Easy wins (~100%): Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Indiana

Probable wins (~75%): Notre Dame, @Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State

Toss ups (~50%): @Iowa, Ohio State

Our chances of going undefeated are therefore ~8%, meaning we'd make it to the MNC game about 1 out of 10 times. Sounds about right to me, as we'll have a good but not superb team next year.

Originally Posted by BuckeyeBiz

I think the bucks hand it to them in Ann Arbor this year and they will not beat us next year in our house with another solid team. That would put Loyd at 1-5 against the man. I don't think Michigan could hanlde that record and Carr would finally be out the door.

Win or lose this year, Carr is expected to retire around then anyway. We expect him to hang it up after Henne and Hart are gone, as that looks like it'll be his last big chance.

Originally Posted by unionfutura

For a NC title appearance a team needs to be both good and lucky. Hell even USC got lucky a few times last year, they could've easily lost to Virginia Tech, Stanford, Oregon State, and California. So in short after witnessing Michigan's 97 season, and OSU's 02 season I'm no longer in the "This team will never challenge for a NC" business ever again. Too much talent, and you never know when a team just clicks.

Thank you! This is exactly my point. Here's some green while I still have some to give after this post.

If I do this: will you guys not ding me?

[brutus2002]

Michigan doesn't have a NC defense...not even close. I could see them losing 4-5 games especially if they have noone step up into Edwards shoes and if their defense gets no better or worse. Their fans are banking on this years recruits to come in and do damage...thats unrealistic. A team is lucky to have 2-4 freshmen that see significant time let alone start.

IF their defense is alot better than last years and they have an answer for the lose of Edwards they can compete. Without a better defense they have a snowballs chance in hell to make it. The B10 is gonna be too good this year to have a half-assed defense and win it. IMO they are a hype machine thats gonna take a dive this year.

Defense is their achilles heal. Until their defense gets better they can kiss a NC goodbye.