Week 5 Computer Polls

BrutusBobcat · #1 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 02:47 PM

The first one out today is Sagarin.

Sagarin ELO-CHESS (BCS):

1. Florida State
2. LSU
3. USC
4. Miami
5. Texas
6. Michigan State
7. Virginia Tech
8. Florida
9. Georgia
10. Wisconsin
11. Minnesota
12. Boston College
13. Georgia Tech
14. West Virginia
15. Arizona State
16. UCLA
17. Penn State
...
26. Ohio State

I'll post Billingsley, Colley and Massey when they come out (or someone else can if they beat me to it

).

Anderson-Hester and Wolfe do not yet have rankings for 2005.

The upside here is that the computer so far is giving some love to a few future opponents.

Jeffcat · #2 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 03:22 PM

florida state is #1......................ummmmmm no

BuckeyeNation27 · #3 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 03:24 PM

I wonder why Sagarin is considered the joke of the college football world. every year he ranks Pac-10 the #1 conference, and now this.

Steve19 · #4 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 03:27 PM

Sagarin's model still has the opening Bayesian estimates in it. In other words, his beginning estimates are still in, so this isn't his real ratings yet. I think it will be next week that enough games have been played to drop that. Until then, don't consider these ratings anything more than a guide.

JonathanXC · #5 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 03:27 PM

How in the hell is Penn State ahead of ANYBODY? They've played NOBODY! NOBODY! What a complete joke. Miami, FL #4? I don't understand what we did to get ranked so low? Lose to a team, that even they still have in the top 5.

BrutusBobcat · #6 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 04:01 PM

Steve is correct. These rankings still use the pre-season seedings, but there are some things to look out for.

First, the teams we've beaten haven't done jack. SDSU got their first win against San Jose State last night. Miami has beaten Kent State (who lost to OU yesterday). Iowa beat Ball State and Northern Iowa.

Second, the teams still on our schedule look good to Sagarin's computer. Minny, MSU and PSU are teams that are going to wind up in our "W" column

and it's good for us that they are ranked high.

All of these computer algorithms create their rankings based on a few simple criteria. Home losses are punished more than road losses, for example. Home wins over teams with losing records count less than road wins against teams with winning records, etc.

So Ohio State is #26 due to underachieving opponents and a home loss. Since margin of victory is NOT counted in any BCS computer poll, due to BCS policy, we get no more credit for a close loss at home to Texas than would LA-Lafayette if they'd played in Lafayette. Over the course of the season, this will all work out, but early on you get some funny results.

One way to look at computer polls is -- what have the teams achieved thus far? The fact that PSU is ranked so highly with a pretty lackluster schedule is a good indicator as to how bad everyone else's schedule is.

sandgk · #7 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve19

Sagarin's model still has the opening Bayesian estimates in it. In other words, his beginning estimates are still in, so this isn't his real ratings yet. I think it will be next week that enough games have been played to drop that. Until then, don't consider these ratings anything more than a guide.

Actually, I think you can go farther. Till he drops the opening estimate and only uses current season data I simply would not even bother looking at the Sagarin.

BrutusBobcat · #8 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 05:32 PM

Massey is now out as well:

<pre>
<font color="#0080FF"> Chng Team W L Rating Sched Massey</font>

1 <a href="team.php?tm=193738">LSU</a> 1 0 3.163 2.01 ( 2) 6 IA
2 + 1 <a href="team.php?tm=193633">Florida St</a> 3 0 2.944 1.75 ( 6) 2 IA
3 + 6 <a href="team.php?tm=193659">Penn St</a> 4 0 2.721 1.61 ( 12) 28 IA
4 - 2 <a href="team.php?tm=193728">Florida</a> 4 0 2.583 1.51 ( 20) 7 IA
5 + 3 <a href="team.php?tm=193636">Miami FL</a> 2 1 2.558 1.95 ( 3) 5 IA
6 +16 <a href="team.php?tm=193674">Texas</a> 3 0 2.385 1.34 ( 37) 4 IA
7 + 9 <a href="team.php?tm=193717">Arizona St</a> 3 1 2.368 1.65 ( 11) 20 IA
8 - 3 <a href="team.php?tm=193666">Kansas</a> 3 0 2.342 1.28 ( 44) 53 IA
9 +15 <a href="team.php?tm=193643">Boston College</a> 3 1 2.293 1.60 ( 14) 17 IA
10 +44 <a href="team.php?tm=193729">Georgia</a> 4 0 2.235 1.21 ( 54) 8 IA

<font color="#0080FF"> Chng Team W L Rating Sched Massey</font>

11 +15 <a href="team.php?tm=193723">USC</a> 3 0 2.217 1.19 ( 58) 1 IA
12 +25 <a href="team.php?tm=193680">Cincinnati</a> 2 1 2.216 1.66 ( 9) 80 IA
13 +15 <a href="team.php?tm=193760">Texas-El Paso</a> 3 0 2.212 1.17 ( 61) 60 IA
14 + 7 <a href="team.php?tm=193656">Minnesota</a> 4 0 2.183 1.16 ( 66) 15 IA
15 +17 <a href="team.php?tm=193722">UCLA</a> 3 0 2.180 1.17 ( 64) 13 IA
16 +76 <a href="team.php?tm=193685">South Florida</a> 3 1 2.162 1.45 ( 25) 51 IA
17 +14 <a href="team.php?tm=193655">Michigan St</a> 4 0 2.151 1.10 ( 78) 11 IA
18 +40 <a href="team.php?tm=193735">Alabama</a> 4 0 2.140 1.08 ( 80) 21 IA
19 -13 <a href="team.php?tm=193665">Iowa St</a> 3 0 2.117 1.12 ( 75) 49 IA
20 +42 <a href="team.php?tm=193640">Virginia Tech</a> 4 0 2.107 1.06 ( 84) 3 IA
</pre>

Ohio State is at #32.

Note how high Penn State is ranked, and how low USC is ranked. Va Tech is also quite low. Again, the results are kind of nonsense right now, but some good Big Ten wins will bring OSU up.

JonathanXC · #9 (**permalink**) 09-25-2005, 05:41 PM

Penn State, Cincinnti, Kansas, and South Florida hahahahahahaha.