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10-02-2005, 11:52 AM
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Week 6 computer polls
As usual, Sag is the first one out.
Sagarin BCS rankings: 1. Florida State 2. Usc 3. Va Tech 4. Texas 18. Ohio State ---------------------- Note: The "real" Sagarin has OSU at #10. Sagarin has OSU's schedue at #20. Edit: Ohio State was #26 last week. A win at Penn State is going to be huge for the computer rankings. Basically, the importance of the computers is as something of a tie-breaker. For example, let's say that in the final polls Harris has Texas #1, Ohio State #2 and a one-loss USC team at #3 (we can dream, right? Harris is kind of cracked out anyway). Let's say the coached have it: Texas, USC, Ohio State. With the new formula, the computer polls provide 1/3, so whoever averages higher in the computers gets that Rose Bowl slot. That's a simplistic example, but generally if the human polls agree, you're not going to pick up enough points from the computers to put you over. That's apparently a deliberate part of the new formula. Last edited by BrutusBobcat; 10-02-2005 at 11:59 AM.          
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10-02-2005, 11:53 AM
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10-02-2005, 11:58 AM
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sagarin
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10-02-2005, 11:58 AM
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Can somebody tell me why the hell Florida St is #1?
I mean I saw it last week as well, but just didnt ask. That is confusing as hell.
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10-02-2005, 12:00 PM
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10-02-2005, 12:02 PM
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Ah hah, and ok that actually does make sense then, because out of those teams, I would agree that FSU has the toughest schedule. Well them or Va Tech......who hasnt played their tougher conference games yet.
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10-02-2005, 12:04 PM
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Florida State is #1 primarily because Miami is #5. The elo-chess rank discounts margin of victory, so Texas and USC aren't credited for their blowout wins. Thus Florida State has the "best" win of any of the big unbeatens.
Keep in mind that the computers don't watch games and can't make a qualitative analysis of play. They simply react to your wins and losses. I've been thinking for a few years about making an algorithm that would take into account some key statisics, like Quarterback play, rushing and passing defense, special teams errors, etc. and coming up with a predictor of hypothetical matchups. My system would barely take wins and losses into account and would be more a measure of performance. Maybe I'll screw around with that this winter if I'm bored. 
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10-02-2005, 12:07 PM
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Naa dont bother, you know they wouldnt use it, it might actually work and make sense
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10-02-2005, 12:09 PM
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10-02-2005, 12:19 PM
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OSU, right now, is really being hammered in the SOS department since the SOS component in computer polls is only measued through the current games played. SDSU wasn't really expected to help, but Iowa and Miami, OH underachieving are dragging down the OSU SOS. On the plus side, Texas should go undefeated, Miami is still the best team in the MAC, and we'll get an undefeated PSU next. Thanks to the Big-10 dropping a grand total of five OOC games, every opponent not named Illinois or Indiana left on the OSU schedule will raise the SOS.
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10-02-2005, 12:50 PM
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Miami lost to Central Michigan at home. Not real sure about them bein the best team in the mac right now. Course they did smack Cinci around yesterday. I think Iowa will come around as well, they are just havin a rough couple of games. In fact it kinda reminds me of our 3 game streak last year.
It all comes down to this. They can come out with new polls every week, change the computer polls around every week. But until we have a playoff, it will never be right. Which means, it will never be right
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10-02-2005, 08:57 PM
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I'm looking at the sagrin ratings right now, and the "ELO-CHESS" that they use for the BCS has Ohio State at 36th. Where did you get 18th? This has Auburn 1st, FSU 2nd.
I think maybe you were still looking at last weeks. Looks like this weeks has 1. Alabama 2. FSU 3. USC 4. Wisky 5. Va Tech 6. Penn State 36. Ohio State
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10-02-2005, 10:53 PM
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You're right, JXC, that link has been updated since the thread was started this morning. Dropping some in a bye week is to be expected, but 36th does seem awfully low. A win over #6 Penn St. would give a nice boost back up.
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10-03-2005, 02:11 AM
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Sorry about that. Sagarin had updated their regular rankings, but they've since changed their BCS rankings. Odd.
Adding to the mix, Colley is now out. Penn State is still #1 and OSU is at 21. USC is 6 and Texas is 8. Massey and Billingsley have not been released for this week yet. Anderson-Hester (Seattle Times) and Wolfe are not yet ranking teams. Wolfe starts on Oct 17, and A-H should either start this week or next. The official BCS should begin once Wolfe rankings start.
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10-03-2005, 04:35 AM
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10 Ohio State A = 87.01 3 1 75.23( 20) 0 1 | 0 1 | 77.77 36 | 90.14 8
13 Michigan A = 85.99 3 2 77.04( 13) 0 2 | 1 2 | 83.62 20 | 90.77 4 can someone please explain to me how scUM is ranked higher in both the Pure Points scale, and the ELO-CHESS scale? and as a follow-up, how the [censored] do those rankings equate to Ohio State being ranked higher in the Sagarin Poll???
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