By The Numbers (Ozone) Beware Its Ugly

[exhawg]

Originally Posted by martinss01

this is the stat that jumped up and hit me upside the head with a bat about 3 times. 45 plays with 3 wr's or more. EIGHT were completed passes. there is NO WAY ON EARTH anyone can tell me psu, or any other db group for that matter, can cover all 3 of our wr's so well that they are only open 8 out of 45 attempts. we have problems people. we have very serious problems.

we completed 13 passes, 8 of them resulted in first downs. conversely, we ran the ball 39 times for 6 first downs. now, im no math whiz... but this tells me that if i have a qb who can get the ball into the wr's hands, i CAN move the ball.

Hell, Zwick completed 9 of 15 passes against Texas with 3 blatant drops and only playing half the game. I would have to think Texas has a better defense than PSU.

[jwinslow]

Originally Posted by martinss01

this is the stat that jumped up and hit me upside the head with a bat about 3 times. 45 plays with 3 wr's or more. EIGHT were completed passes. there is NO WAY ON EARTH anyone can tell me psu, or any other db group for that matter, can cover all 3 of our wr's so well that they are only open 8 out of 45 attempts. we have problems people. we have very serious problems.

we completed 13 passes, 8 of them resulted in first downs. conversely, we ran the ball 39 times for 6 first downs. now, im no math whiz... but this tells me that if i have a qb who can get the ball into the wr's hands, i CAN move the ball.

which might suggest our playcalling is not as bad as it seems. I'm not saying it's great, but clearly TS had his head on backwards vs PSU. Players do have bad games sometimes, and for a raw QB like Smith, that's probably gonna be uglier than other games.

The texas game involved much less scoring than we would like, but TS did not miss many WRs in that game. 2-3 times he nearly turned it over, but we did not see balls that flew past or below WRs like other games. He came out rusty against sdsu, threw crisp passes against an easier man coverage at Iowa, and was awful against PSU. This is why he's not a good QB yet, but it doesn't prove he has always sucked. He is not as bad as the game we saw saturday, however he probably also should be given a simpler reads until he improves. Instead, we will supply him with wide open WRs this weekend and no rush, since MSU stinks, and that should help a lot for him and Teddy

Originally Posted by exhawg

Hell, Zwick completed 9 of 15 passes against Texas with 3 blatant drops and only playing half the game. I would have to think Texas has a better defense than PSU.

I don't know that Texas has a better defense. I would say if we were in Austin, it would have been an easier way to judge. That crowd played a big factor. It's not an excuse we can claim later, but we would be offended if someone claimed the crowd didn't affect them as a visiting QB. Zwick was better vs. Texas, but he had two near INTs too (that Roy Hall pass was bad, the defender could have picked it off had he turned... and the Robinson (DE) bat down, I've seen their DE's come up with those INTs from highlight reels last year). Zwick seems to read defenses better, tho I'd say Troy read the Texas one fairly well. Tho somehow I think Zwick would have been able to solve the SDSU defense

[exhawg]

Originally Posted by jwinslow

and the Robinson (DE) bat down, I've seen their DE's come up with those INTs from highlight reels last year).

Not to nit pick, but it is the RB's job to keep the DE's hands down on quick passes. We always had the RB's cut the end man on the line when I played. Even if he misses it should keep the DE's hands down long enough to get the pass off. Pittman didn't even make contact with the DE.
The Hall catch was a great play by Hall on a suspect throw, but how many times did CK throw balls like that to MJ? Sometimes you have to let your players make plays, and Hall is the only WR we have that can go up and fight for balls like that.

[jwinslow]

no I agree, Pittman is the one that gets an earful after that play, however a pump would have been good when he noticed the lack of blocking. And yes CK did make a career out of those plays to Jenkins. That's why I said Zwick was better, which i think is a compliment b/c I thought Smith played pretty well for his first game back vs. Texas.

[martinss01]

Originally Posted by jwinslow

which might suggest our playcalling is not as bad as it seems. I'm not saying it's great, but clearly TS had his head on backwards vs PSU. Players do have bad games sometimes, and for a raw QB like Smith, that's probably gonna be uglier than other games.

thats why we have stats:
25 pass (39%)--13/25 for 139 yards 1 INT
39 runs (61%) for 91 yards 1 TD--2.3 ypc

1st Down--26 plays (41%) for 104 yards

7 pass (27%)--5/7 for 50 yards
19 runs (73%) for 54 yards--2.8 ypc
ave. gain of 4.0 yards

on first down we gained 4 less yards on 5 plays than we did on 19... *ponders*

2nd Down--23 plays (36%) for 79 yards

10 pass (43%)--5/10 for 59 yards
13 runs (57%) for 20 yards 1 TD--1.5 ypc
ave. of 7.6 yards to go
ave. gain of 3.4 yards

holy crap! we were almost 50/50! probably had nothing to do with consistantly needing 8+ yrds for a first down.

3rd Down--15 plays (23%) for 47 yards

Eight pass (53%)--3/8 for 30 yards 1 INT
Seven runs (47%) for 17 yards--2.4 ypc
ave. of 7.9 yards to go
ave. gain of 3.1 yards
conversions--5/15 (33%)
Playaction Passing
3/6 for 30 yards

holy mother of god! we passed more than we ran!!!! nah, couldn't possibly have anything to do with us consistantly needed 6+ yrds for a first down...

yep, a whirlwind of trickerfication! people whine and moan about execution. its kinda hard to execute when the opposing team knows exactly what you are going to do and exactly when you are going to do it. talent and execution don't mean squat when the other team is in your huddle. the most average of teams can keep pace with the best in such a situation.

The texas game involved much less scoring than we would like, but TS did not miss many WRs in that game. 2-3 times he nearly turned it over, but we did not see balls that flew past or below WRs like other games.

ts completed 5 passes against texas. of the other 6 that were incomplete, 3 were right to defenders.

He came out rusty against sdsu, threw crisp passes against an easier man coverage at Iowa, and was awful against PSU. This is why he's not a good QB yet, but it doesn't prove he has always sucked. He is not as bad as the game we saw saturday, however he probably also should be given a simpler reads until he improves. Instead, we will supply him with wide open WRs this weekend and no rush, since MSU stinks, and that should help a lot for him and Teddy I don't know that Texas has a better defense. I would say if we were in Austin, it would have been an easier way to judge. That crowd played a big factor. It's not an excuse we can claim later, but we would be offended if someone claimed the crowd didn't affect them as a visiting QB. Zwick was better vs. Texas, but he had two near INTs too (that Roy Hall pass was bad, the defender could have picked it off had he turned... and the Robinson (DE) bat down, I've seen their DE's come up with those INTs from highlight reels last year). Zwick seems to read defenses better, tho I'd say Troy read the Texas one fairly well. Tho somehow I think Zwick would have been able to solve the SDSU defense

if you can't find the holes in a zone, qb might not be a postion for you. if scum lite plays anything but zone against ts their defensive coaching staff should be strung out in the street, beaten, stabbed, shot, and possibly killed a little later on.

[jwinslow]

it's just now dawning on me that the dvd recording downloaded from BP's torrents misses some plays before two different FGs in the first half. There were probably some misses in there that I didn't get to see in the rewatching. Good rebuttals above.