B10 title picture not all that unclear

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by ScarletArrow

The picture is getting clearer.

Doesn't look like were going to be able to count on Purdue for anything.

Tiller has gone with a readshirt freshman QB mi-season - if that doens't say 'wait till next year' - I don't know what does.

I'm praying for a miracle upset at home against PSU next week.

I think Iowa can / will beat Wisky, but I don't know if anyone is going to beat PSU.

I think Purdue will play spoilermaker role at least once this year. Hope its vs PSU. That new QB didn't look all that bad in a rough ass spot to make a start.

Sparty has my confidence as the one psycho team capable of getting [censored] hammered by Northwestern but ruining a good team like PSU's season. They are famous for it.

[808 Buck]

With MSU appearing to go in the tank (gee, what a shock), Penn State's only real threat will be Wisconsin. Without a doubt, we have the toughest road to the title. I'd like for John L. and Stanton to right the ship, but don't count on it.

[ScarletArrow]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

I think Purdue will play spoilermaker role at least once this year. Hope its vs PSU. That new QB didn't look all that bad in a rough ass spot to make a start.

Sparty has my confidence as the one psycho team capable of getting [censored] hammered by Northwestern but ruining a good team like PSU's season. They are famous for it.

Agreed on Purdue...tough place to get your first start. Things must be really bad for Tiller.

My fear w/ Sparty is that they used up their one spoiler win for the season against the Domers - but Stanton had an off day today...we'll see if he rebounds.

[strohs]

I think the PSU/Wisconsin game is a toss up.
I hope Wisconsin wins because I can see them blowing another game.
Whereas if PSU wins, I can see them winning out...
We just need to take care of business.
If we go 9-2, and win in convincing fashion, we have a good shot at a BCS bowl still...

[TheMile]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

B10 BCS tie breakers goes by
1. conf win %
2. overall win %
3. Head to head
4. Last to go rule

According to here, head to head is the second tiebreaker, ahead of overall win %. I don't think that will matter for OSU's title chances unless you lose one, though.

[Steve19]

Jax, the new Sagarin's are out. Ohio State now has played the toughest schedule and is ranked fourth overall.

We also are now ranked nearly 10 spots higher at #7 in the ELO rating that counts in the BCS. We should rise substantially in the BCS, and hopefully that will influence the human pollsters.

Now, here's what I am wondering. If we're the only one loss team, then we get the BCS bowl as Big Ten champions. If we and Penn State win out, do we have a chance for an at-large berth?


College Football 2005 thru Saturday, October 29, 2005 the BCS uses the ELO-CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.37 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO-CHESS | PREDICTOR
1 Texas A = 101.13 8 0 73.55( 33) 2 0 | 4 0 | 102.44 1 | 99.44 2
2 Southern California A = 100.99 8 0 74.66( 25) 2 0 | 3 0 | 99.74 2 | 101.64 1
3 Virginia Tech A = 96.52 8 0 72.41( 43) 0 0 | 2 0 | 99.09 3 | 93.98 4
4 Ohio State A = 92.16 6 2 81.20( 1) 0 2 | 3 2 | 90.69 7 | 93.07 5
5 Penn State A = 92.06 8 1 77.04( 11) 1 1 | 3 1 | 92.39 5 | 91.12 6
6 Notre Dame A = 89.57 5 2 80.18( 4) 1 1 | 1 2 | 85.27 19 | 95.03 3
7 Texas Tech A = 88.23 7 1 65.16( 97) 0 1 | 0 1 | 89.33 10 | 86.63 8
8 Oregon A = 88.20 7 1 75.55( 15) 0 1 | 2 1 | 89.59 9 | 86.36 9
9 Michigan A = 87.78 6 3 80.90( 2) 1 1 | 4 3 | 86.86 14 | 88.04 7
10 Miami-Florida A = 87.64 6 1 71.75( 48) 0 0 | 1 1 | 89.01 11 | 85.82 12
College Football 2005 thru Saturday, October 29, 2005 the BCS uses the ELO-CHESS from here
HOME ADVANTAGE= 2.37 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO-CHESS | PREDICTOR
11 UCLA A = 86.87 8 0 69.03( 74) 0 0 | 1 0 | 91.46 6 | 82.99 18
12 Wisconsin A = 86.78 8 1 72.84( 38) 1 0 | 2 1 | 90.28 8 | 83.52 16
13 LSU A = 85.98 6 1 72.53( 42) 0 0 | 3 0 | 85.77 17 | 85.52 13
14 Florida State A = 85.19 7 1 68.87( 78) 1 0 | 2 0 | 88.08 13 | 82.27 20
15 Alabama A = 84.62 8 0 68.90( 76) 0 0 | 1 0 | 93.94 4 | 78.69 28
16 Florida A = 84.61 6 2 74.05( 29) 0 0 | 1 2 | 85.87 16 | 82.85 19
17 Colorado A = 84.29 6 2 74.57( 27) 0 2 | 0 2 | 86.24 15 | 81.99 21
18 Michigan State A = 83.84 5 3 75.46( 18) 1 2 | 1 3 | 81.31 26 | 86.03 10
19 Boston College A = 83.69 6 2 74.84( 22) 0 1 | 0 2 | 85.25 20 | 81.70 22
20 Minnesota A = 83.60 5 3 78.63( 9) 1 2 | 1 3 | 85.21 21 | 81.57 24

[VprHis]

Originally Posted by Steve19

Now, here's what I am wondering. If we're the only one loss team, then we get the BCS bowl as Big Ten champions. If we and Penn State win out, do we have a chance for an at-large berth?

If I remember correctly, IF it's a Texas vs. USC Rose Bowl, the Fiesta gets first selection of at large berths... am I thinking in the correct direction?
The Fiesta Bowl has already sent a rep to one of our games this year (I forget which--gee, aren't I helpful) but we all know that Tempe LOVES the Bucks. I'd say if we do our part, and collect 3 more W's, then we've got a very good shot at a BCS berth, regardless of whether we get the Auto Bid.

[Jaxbuck]

For an at large BCS we have to run the table and finish top 8 in the final BCS rankings. Now the question is can we jump that high? I think we can.

2 or 3 very overrated teams remain in our way UCLA, Miami and FSU are the ones I want to puke over when I see them ahead of us but each probably has 1 more loss coming and we should move up to 12 today due to the BC loss. So just doing that rough math you can make a plausible case for us finishing BCS top 8.

Also, PSU and Wisky are currently ahead of us in the BCS and they play each other this weekend. We pick up at least 1 BCS spot and get to beat up on Illinois at home to do it.