BCS Chances (El Gigante Merge)

[Carmen Ohio]

Since we're getting close to the end of the season, I thought it might be convenient to post this.

BCS Bowl Eligibility

2005 Selection Order

The first and second ranked teams in the final BCS Standings will play in the Rose Bowl, host of the national championship game for the 2005 season. After the Rose Bowl matches the No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams, the other BCS games make their selections. The Big 12 championship will host the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (January 2), the Southeastern Conference champion shall host the Nokia Sugar Bowl (January 2), and the Atlantic Coast Conference champion will host the FedEx Orange Bowl (Jan. 3) should those teams not be ranked No. 1 or No. 2. All BCS games will be telecast by ABC Sports.

If a BCS bowl loses a host team to the national championship game, then that BCS bowl shall be the first to select a replacement team from the pool of eligible teams. If two BCS bowls lose their host teams to the national championship game, the BCS bowl losing the top-ranked team would have the first selection, followed by the BCS bowl that lost the secondranked team. Bowls cannot select a host team from another BCS bowl. Furthermore, if two BCS bowls lose host teams to the national championship game, the bowl losing thee top-ranked team may not select a team from the same conference as the second-ranked team unless the bowl losing the second-ranked team consents.

In certain situations, a host team for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, or Nokia Sugar Bowl may, but need not, be placed in another BCS game. Factors that are considered in making that determination include:

1. The same team hosting the same BCS Bowl for two straight years;

2. Two teams that played against one another in the most recently completed regular season;

3. The same two teams would play against each other in a bowl game for two consecutive years;

4. An alternative pairing would have greater appeal to college football fans.

Any BCS bowl game(s) still remaining unfilled will submit a listing of its top three team selections to fill its at-large slot. Any team that is guaranteed a berth in a BCS bowl game and that has not already placed in such a game must be listed among such bowl game's first two selections. Each BCS bowl will then be given its highest preference of teams.

In a situation where two or more bowls select the same team(s) with their choices, the priority of selection goes initially to the bowl making the larger per team payment and then rotates to the other bowls not given first priority in a previous year. For the bowls not hosting the national championship game this season, the following selection priority will apply if necessary:

1. FedEx Orange Bowl
2. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
3. Nokia Sugar Bowl

The pairings established by this selection process may be adjusted by the conference and institutions participating in the BCS, in consultation with the BCS bowls and ABC, in the interest of creating the most exciting and competitive post season matchups possible. The factors considered in adjusting the pairings are the same as those considered in determining whether to move a host team into a different bowl.

Which Teams Are Eligible?

The pool of eligible teams includes:

1. The teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings. These two teams will play in the BCS bowl hosting the national championship game.

2. To the extent that such teams do not qualify to play in the national championship game, the conference champions of the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10 and Southeastern Conferences. These teams are guaranteed berths.

3. To the extent that any such team does not qualify to play in the national championship game, any Division I-A independent or team from Conference USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West , Sun Belt or Western Athletic Conference, will earn a guaranteed slot in one of the BCS bowl games should that team be ranked sixth or higher in the final BCS Standings. Should the number of teams meeting this criterion exceed the number of available slots in the BCS bowls after placement of teams in the national championship game and the six conference champions that are annually guaranteed berths, then the BCS bowls will fill any available slots by choosing from among all such teams that have met this criterion.

4. All other Division I-A teams that have won at least nine regular season games (not including wins in exempt games) and are ranked among the top 12 in the final BCS Standings are eligible for selection as an at-large team. The final BCS Standings will be released on Sunday, December 4. The conferences whose champions have a guaranteed annual berth in one of the BCS bowls are subject to review and possible loss of that guaranteed annual berth should the conference champion not have an average ranking of 12 or higher over a four-year period.


Automatic Qualification Standards

Qualification for At-Large Teams

There are two at-large spots available in the BCS games. If one or both of the participants in the national championship game are not champions from those conferences whose champions have an annual automatic berth in a BCS game, they are considered at-large teams. Only one team from a conference whose champion has an annual automatic berth in a BCS bowl may be selected as an at-large participant, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked one and two. No more than two teams from any conference may play in the BCS bowl games in any given year.

Pool of Eligible Teams

All Division I-A college football teams are eligible for at-large selection provided they meet both of the following requirements:

1. Have won at least nine regular season games.
2. Are among the top 12 teams in the final BCS Standings.

If a team chooses to count a game played against a IAA opponent for BCS selection eligibility, such game must be declared as a countable game to meet post-season requirements per NCAA regulations.

Automatic Qualification for At-Large Selection

1. If both the number one and number two teams in the BCS standings are from independent institutions, Conference USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conferences, those two teams shall play in the national championship game regardless of conference affiliation, and will fill both at-large slots. If one of the top two ranked teams is from an independent institution, Conference USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conference, that team shall play in the national championship game and fill one of the at-large slots and one at-large slot will remain available.
2. Any team from an independent institution Conference, USA, the Mid-American, Mountain West, Sun Belt, or Western Athletic Conference that is ranked three through six shall qualify for automatic selection.
   1. <LI type=a>If one or more teams other than Notre Dame qualify for automatic selection under this provision, Notre Dame shall also qualify provided it is ranked in the top ten or has won at least nine games.
   2. If more than one at-large team qualifies for automatic selection under this provision and there are insufficient at-large slots available to accommodate all of them, the BCS bowls will select from those that qualify.
3. After application of the previous provisions, if any at-large slots remain unfilled and the team ranked either three or four is from the Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pacific-10, or Southeastern Conference but is not its representative, that team shall automatically fill one at-large slot and shall be selected to play in one of the BCS bowls. If both the third and fourth ranked teams meet these criteria, then only the third ranked team shall qualify automatically. The third and fourth ranked teams cannot both qualify automatically under this provision.
4. If any at-large slots remain unfilled after application of all previous provisions, then the BCS bowls shall fill such slot(s) by selecting from among the pool of all eligible at-large teams.

Long, but answers a lot of questions.

[BUCKYLE]

SO....WTF???

[avoiddallyod]

So I take it we are Bowl eligable?

I got confused after the second paragraph

[NFBuck]

Originally Posted by BUCKEYESTUCKNGA

SO....WTF???

Yeah, so are we in or what?

[BUCKYLE]

Originally Posted by avoiddallyod

So I take it we are Bowl eligable?

I got confused after the second paragraph

yeah, bowl eligable. as to a BCS bowl....um...refer to everything after the second paragraph please.

[avoiddallyod]

Ive never understood that BCS crap, so I just always waited for the Columbus Dispatch to tell me where our bowl game was gonna be...

[methomps]

Here is my interpretation of tOSU's BCS chances:

It was a relatively bad day for Ohio State's BCS hopes. They did the most important thing, which is win. Penn State will get the Big10 bid with a win over MSU. Otherwise tOSU can win it with a win over Michigan.

Assuming PSU wins...

Virginia Tech losing is probably a negative for tOSU, because they could contend for one of those two at-large spots. It would be best for tOSU for VaTech and/or Miami to lose another game. The worst case scenario for tOSU would be for VaTech to win out and Miami win every game but lose the ACC champ game. If that happens, VaTech or LSU would probably get the first at-large bid by placing 4th.

The next big threat for tOSU is Notre Dame. With Wisconsin and FSU losing, ND will probably be top 12 on Monday. That means they would be eligible for a spot should they win out. tOSU is a big draw, but ND is a monster. ND can get an automatic bid by finishing top 6, but that would take a litany of upsets. It ain't gonna happen.

Out of the SEC, LSU is a threat as I mentioned. They are probably going to be one spot ahead of tOSU on Monday. If they can get into that 4 spot, they could take one of those at-large bids (the same one that VaTech is challenging for).

Another big threat to tOSU's hopes are those pesky CCG upsets. In 2003, Texas was all lined up for an at-large bid before Oklahoma lost to KSU. KSU took that conference bid and Oklahoma took the at-large bid away from Texas. Similar situations could happen in the SEC, Big12, and Pac10. If undefeated Bama loses to Georgia or Florida, they may take an at-large spot. Texas is even more likely to take tOSU's spot if they lose to Colorado. USC doesn't technically play in a CCG, but if they lose to ucla they could also take an at-large bid.

Overall a bad weekend for tOSU, but not a fatal one. Basically, tOSU needs to root against Penn State, VaTech, Miami, Notre Dame, LSU, and (to a lesser extent) Georgia and ucla. tOSU needs to root for the unbeatens (Texas, USC, Bama).

[jlb1705]

The worst case scenario for tOSU would be for VaTech to win out, Penn State lose to MSU, and Miami win every game but lose the ACC champ game.

One hitch there. Any chances of Ohio State making a BCS bowl are predicated on them winning out. That being the case, the at-large concerns become moot if PSU falls to MSU, since that would give the automatic and the outright conference championship to Ohio State.

[methomps]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

One hitch there. Any chances of Ohio State making a BCS bowl are predicated on them winning out. That being the case, the at-large concerns become moot if PSU falls to MSU, since that would give the automatic and the outright conference championship to Ohio State.

Oops, I misread Penn State's conference record. I'll change it. Thanks

[kippy1040]

To lose to Texas as Ohio State did, was not that big. It was a hellava game one that alot of people will remember. But the loss to PennState was huge.
That win gave them everything to hope for and they were one play away from being undefeated against Michigan. Michigan State could pose as giant killers with an upset over PSU. If that happens we just have to win out and were in for a BCS. Otherwise I shall see you all in Tampa for another wonderful trip to the Outback. Cheers.

[BuckeyePride]

penn state loses...we're in.

[NightmaresDad]

I don't agree with this being that bad of a day for OSU regarding the BCS.
The only game that hurt was VT losing to Miami.
UCLA - eliminated
FSU - eliminated (unless they beat Miami in the ACC Ch game? (which I don't see happening - although Miami did suffer alot of injuries last night - the one to Moss could hurt big-time)

Alabama plays LSU next week @ 'Bama - LSU is probably going down and out of at-large consideration. that leaves Georgia as the other possible threat in the SEC.

Of course, if Mich St somehow gets it together and bets PSU, then we control our own destiny - but again I don't see that happening. PSU is playing as well as anybody in the country right now.

We will be 8th in the BCS, with a good chance of moving to at least 7th after next week - then see what happens after that.

[Steve19]

Herbie thinks PSU loses at MSU. I am not so sure. MSU was gutted a bit at Purdue yesterday. They were held to just 30 yards in the second quarter and their heads were hanging pretty badly in the second half. They have a tough game at Minnesota next week and still need one victory to be bowl eligible.

MSU is a Jekyll and Hyde team. They play top teams tough and they may well need PSU to be bowl eligible, but you gotta like PSU with everything riding on the game and an extra week to prepare for it.

[tsteele316]

Alabama plays LSU next week @ 'Bama - LSU is probably going down and out of at-large consideration. that leaves Georgia as the other possible threat in the SEC.

bama has lsu and auburn coming up. i would wager that they lose both. they have become totally anemic offensively. bama drops 2 and slides out of the bcs picture.

VT just needs to lose one more to make sure they are out of consideration.

you know, the orange bowl is likely going to get stuck with the big east champ, and they are going to be looking for a draw. osu probably looks really good to them, assuming nd end up in the fiesta. of course nd will likely end up playing wvu in the orange bowl, blow them out, and add even more to the myth that they are a powerhouse this year.

[BB73]

I'll try to summarize our BCS chances in 1 post.

If we win out and Penn State loses, we're in as Big-10 Champs.

If we win out and PSU beats MSU, we're fighting ND and other conference runner-ups for 2 at-large spots. IF ND wins out, they should be BCS top-12 and their marketability will give them one spot.

Besides ND, the scenarios that really hurt our chances for an at-large spot are a 1-loss team from the ACC or the SEC that doesn't win its conference.

In the SEC, that can happen:

...If Bama beats LSU and Auburn, AND Georgia beats Auburn, Ky, GaTech, and Bama in the CCG

...Or if Auburn beats Georgia and Bama, and Bama beats LSU (Auburn goes to CCG, since first divisional tiebreaker is head-to-head, Bama ends up with 1 loss)

...Or if LSU wins at Bama, at Ole Miss, and against Arkansas, AND Bama beats Auburn (LSU goes to CCG, and Bama ends up with 1 loss)

In the ACC, that can happen:

...If Miami wins at Wake and against GaTech and Virginia, AND Va Tech wins at Virginia and against N.Carolina. Note that in the ACC, the result of the CCG doesn't really matter, a 1-loss VaTech not in the title game is the problem for tOSU.

In the Pac-10, a UCLA win over USC would cause problems for tOSU's BCS chances. I don't believe a 1-loss Oregon team gets an at-large bid over tOSU.

In the Big-12, a Colorado win over Texas in the CCG would do the same. A 1-loss Texas Tech team won't get picked before tOSU.

So the main thing, besides tOSU winning out, is to have Bama either win out, or lose to both LSU and Auburn. And to get another loss for either Miami or VaTech.