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View Poll Results: What Will Be the Buckeyes' Record in 2006?
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13 - 0 and win the NC
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137 |
48.07% |
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13 - 0 and get screwed by the BCS
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1 |
0.35% |
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12 - 1 and win the NC
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35 |
12.28% |
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12 - 1 and get screwed by the BCS
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44 |
15.44% |
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11 - 2
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51 |
17.89% |
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10 - 3
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8 |
2.81% |
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9 - 4
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0 |
0% |
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8 - 5 or worse
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2 |
0.70% |
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I don't care as long as they beat Michigan
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7 |
2.46% |
05-10-2006, 04:01 PM
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Legend
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 4,757
Points: 8,238.89
Bank: 155,833.92
Total Points: 164,072.80
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zincfinger
Mili, Randy's right, football follows the same mathematics of probability as anything else. Just multiply the probabilities for victory in all of the games, to get the probability of going undefeated for the season. In the case of the probabilities you gave, it's ~9.5%.
Of course, after insisting on statistically logical analysis, Randy went in the opposite direction when he said that Michigan is "due" to beat the Bucks.
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Football is not played on paper(Numbers), its played on the field. |
05-10-2006, 04:05 PM
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Bench Warmer
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 929
Points: 100.40
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 100.40
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by tedginn05
Football is not played on paper(Numbers), its played on the field.
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Well, none of the phenomena which statistical analyses describe actually play out on paper, but statistical analysis still accurately describes the probability of outcomes. |
05-11-2006, 03:14 PM
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Blowhard Statistician
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 436
Points: 1,355.62
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 1,355.62
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Quote:
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Of course, after insisting on statistically logical analysis, Randy went in the opposite direction when he said that Michigan is "due" to beat the Bucks.
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Good for you, I dangled that for fun, not expecting anyone to get it. |
05-11-2006, 03:42 PM
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hates the skunkbears (now bearded)
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 4,120
Points: 104.80
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 104.80
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i've heard there is no such thing as being due. baseball for instance: if a hitter is a .300 hitter and is 0-10 his next at bat most would say he has better odds of getting a hit, but the odds are still .300 that he will get a hit (mutually exclusive or something like that). is this correct or am i missing something. (xray i know you were kidding i just want to know the reasoning)
Milli, 80% to beat Michigan huh? I hope you are right!
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05-11-2006, 03:49 PM
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Haole in da hills
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Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 21,717
Points: 363.90
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 363.90
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fourteenandoh
Milli, 80% to beat Michigan huh? I hope you are right!
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Well, we're already playing at an .800 clip against them under Tressel (4-1), and since it's at The Shoe and Troy Smith owns them, I think 80% is not too unrealistic.
__________________
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05-11-2006, 03:53 PM
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Bench Warmer
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 929
Points: 100.40
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 100.40
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fourteenandoh
i've heard there is no such thing as being due.
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Not unless you're pregnant. |
05-11-2006, 04:25 PM
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Beware the bearded beanie bunny hop!
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 11,118
Points: 20,737,108.22
Bank: 0.00
Total Points: 20,737,108.22
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye
Football doesn't work on "distribution"...it works on the field. But, I'll follow your lead and then you tell me what our chances for an undefeated regular season are:
Northern Illinois 95%
Texas 60%
Cincinnati 95%
Penn State 90%
Iowa 65%
Bowling Green 95%
Michigan State 60%
Indiana 95%
Minnesota 85%
Illinois 90%
Northwestern 90%
Michigan 80%
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Comes out to slightly less than 10% unless I screwed up the math. |
05-11-2006, 04:35 PM
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I think. Therefore, I am
Administrator
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