The problem with this discussion is that you can't preface a choice with "right now". The BCS title game isn't right now, and teams will appear to us very differently if they win out over the next 3-4 weeks.
We have to assume that any one-loss team that doesn't win out is done.
So, given the same set of contenders (Florida, Auburn, Arkansas, USC, Cal, Notre Dame, Texas and yes, Rutgers...maybe), how do they look if they run the remainder of the table? Let's admit that "right now", no one holds much of an edge, and many of the teams have some unimpressive performances or schedule weaknesses on their resume.
Florida: Their best remaining game is the SEC title. The best scenario is a rematch with Auburn that helps them "make good" their earlier loss. If so, they're probably in, regardless of how Texas and USC shake out. A win over Arky is a little weaker, and leaves the door open for a one-loss Texas or USC team.
USC: Other than Florida, USC is the next team down the line in terms of controlling destiny. With matchups against two top 10 teams in the final month, the Trojans can make the best case for finishing strong of any team on the list. Of all of the one loss teams, though, USC's loss is possibly the most inexcusable. All of the other one-loss teams have fallen to a top 10 team. (Edit: Except Cal)
Auburn: I'd place them ahead of USC, except that they need a little help. An Arkansas collapse down the stretch that puts War Eagle in a rematch with Florida, and winning that would put Auburn in regardless of what else happens. Barring that, an SEC title-free Tiger team is going to need help. A USC loss and a Florida loss would have them in a toss-up with my next pick.
Texas: They'll win out, and it may not help. This is the one team that doesn't control it's own fate. Voters won't want the rematch with
OSU (yes, bias will creep in), and none of their remaining games are going to impress anyone. They're rooting against Florida, Auburn and USC.
Cal: What Cal needs is to be USC's only remaining loss. USC would have to beat ND, and even then Tedford's team is going to need some SEC bloodletting to climb into the game. The computers might vault them past a one-loss Texas team, but the voters won't. Their fate will depend upon how far the voters drop the
OSU-TSUN loser.
Arkansas: That early loss to USC is a major strike, so they need another USC loss. Their wins so far aren't much to get worked up about, short of the Auburn game. A win over Florida in the SEC title game helps make their case, but I still think they wind up behind Texas or USC. I think that they are the least likely of the group to win out, including Rutgers.
ND/Rutgers: These two are in the least likely of spots. ND could be buoyed by a win over SC, and a Cal loss to the Trojans, but then still need to get past the SEC squads, AND hope for a Texas loss. In that scenario, Rutgers would be riding the tide all the way up with them, presuming a win in Morgantown (I wouldn't vBet on that, anyway). I put them together because they need the exact same thing: lots of upsets for the teams in front of them.
When it comes down to it, the teams that really have a legit shot are the first four: Florida, USC, Auburn and Texas. Beyond that, the teams just need too much help. Now, who is playing well enough to hold up their end of the bargain? Texas can easily win out, and Florida will probably win out, as will Auburn, unless they play again. USC has a tough road, but is playing well enough to do it. If all of that happens, flip a coin between USC and Florida, and try to withstand five weeks of ESPN telling us that D1A needs a playoff.
BUCKS!
