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My father is the eternal optimist, at least when it comes to Buckeye football. Every year, he picks Ohio State to go undefeated, regardless of the talent or the schedule. Even in 1988. So, in August of 2002, when I asked him about the Buckeyes' chances during the the upcoming season, I was not surprised when he said, "They're going to go all the way. Book it!"
"C'mon, be real," I replied. "They're losing their 3-year starter at quarterback (Steve Bellisari), their 1,200-yard rusher (Jonathan Wells), their All-American center (LeCharles Bentley), another All Big Ten lineman (Tyson Walter), they have only one proven receiver (Michael Jenkins) - Ohio State's offense will be mediocre, at best."
"Yes, but their defense will be dominating. And defense wins championships."
"But they've also got a lot of question marks on defense. I mean, Donnie Nickey at safety? Richard McNutt at cornerback? These guys have done nothing! And Kenny Peterson has been a bust, and Cie Grant's a great athlete who can't find a position...."
"But Mike Doss is still around, and he's going to be Ohio State's first three-time All-American since Tom Skladany...."
We went back and forth like that for the better part of an hour. For every point in his favor of his argument, I had a dozen in favor of mine. Finally, at the end of our discussion, my father simply said, "The Buckeyes will win the national championship. Mark my words."
"Yeah, but you said that last year. And the year before. And the year before that...."
"And one of these years I'll be right. You'll see."
Well, as you all know, 2002 was one of those years, and an unheralded Buckeye team went 14-0 and won Ohio State's first recognized national championship since 1968. The Buckeyes recipe for success that season was solid, mistake-free quarterback play, a strong running game, a suffocating defense, and superior special teams play. In other words, "Tressel Ball".
The 2002 Buckeyes were unheralded because the 2001 squad wasn't very good (7 wins, 5 losses). The 2007 Buckeyes are unheralded because the 2006 squad was so good (the consensus number one team in the country throughout the regular season). No longer in Columbus are the Buckeyes' three-year starting quarterback (Troy Smith), their 1200-yard rusher (Antonio Pittman), their All-American center (Doug Datish), and another All Big Ten lineman (T.J. Downing).... Do we detect a pattern here?
Well, if those were the Buckeyes' only significant losses from last year, then Ohio State might be more highly ranked entering this season. However, the Bucks also lost two of their best-ever wide receivers (Teddy Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez), an All-American at defensive tackle (Quinn Pitcock), two other starters on the defensive line (David Patterson and Jay Richardson), and a starting cornerback (Antonio Smith).
Despite the heavy losses, the defense should still be dominating. Led by 2006 Nagurski winner James Laurinaitis (who could become Ohio State's first three-time All-American since Mike Doss), the Buckeyes should be a more aggressive group than last year's squad that melted down in the final two contests and surrendered 39 points to Michigan and 41 to Florida. Cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington will receive All-American consideration, and linebacker Larry Grant is poised for a break-out year. However, the defensive line remains a concern. Defensive end Vernon Gholston is an unstoppable force, but the rest of the linemen (Wilson, Worthington, Denlinger, Larimore, Barrow, Rose, Abdallah, Heyward) are very green, and at least half of them must take their games up a few notches from last season. Safety is another potential soft spot, but the return of Anderson Russell from a knee injury will definitely help to shore up that position.
Now back to the offense.... Every top program loses great players every year, but even the best programs would have difficulty replacing a Heisman winning quarterback, two first-round wide receivers, and their leading rusher, not two mention two solid offensive linemen. Yet that is exactly what the Buckeyes are facing this season. Running back should be no problem, as sophomore Chris Wells should be an upgrade over the departed Antonio Pittman. In addition, the receiving corps should be soild and relatively deep, although none of the young wide outs possesses the pure game breaking speed of Ted Ginn, Jr. or the consistency and reliability of Anthony Gonzalez. The losses on the interior of the line (Datish and Downing) will be softened by the fact that the Buckeyes return two of the best offensive tackles in the game (Boone and Barton).
Of course, that leaves quarterback, where the Buckeyes have the unenviable task of replacing Heisman trophy winner Troy Smith. With Smith gone, the Ohio State offense loses not only its field general and its most productive player, but also its entire image. It is no coincidence that the Buckeye offense morphed from conservative Tressel Ball to wide-open excitement with the emergence of Troy Smith in the middle of the 2005 season. Now that Smith has matriculated to the NFL, the Buckeyes' offense will once again become more conservative and ground-oriented. But a conservative, ground-oriented offense was able to win it all in 2002, so why should 2007 be any different? The answer to that question will be found in the play of Todd Boeckman. If Boeckman can approximate Craig Krenzel's 2002 performance (steady and clutch, but generally unspectacular), then there is no reason why the Buckeyes can't contend for a national title in 2007. Of course, that's a very big "if"....
So, back to my prediction.... My head says 9-4, my heart says 11-2, but my dad says 13-0.
Book it!
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