mandel on the most overrated/underrated teams since 1990

[OSUBasketballJunkie]

It's beyond rare that a Mailbag question inspires me to voluntarily embark on a cumbersome research project, but such was the case with this intriguing and very timely query from Tom Atwood of Charlotte, N.C.:

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=310 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=10> </TD><TD bgColor=#e7e7e7><!-- KEEP --> There were high hopes for Washington and Cody Pickett entering 2003, but they finished just 6-6.
Otto Greule Jr./Getty Images
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I was hoping you could settle a bet I have with some college buddies. Since 1990, who do you think has been the most overrated college program when comparing the school's preseason rank to where it finished the season?

With the help of Lexis-Nexis, I went back and found the first and last AP poll from every season and counted each time a team finished at least seven spots lower than predicted. Why seven? I don't know, It just sounds more dramatic than six.

Ladies and gentlemen, the nation's most overrated program, with eight such occurrences in 14 seasons, is ... the Washington Huskies. Not far behind were -- here's a shocker -- Notre Dame (seven), USC (seven), Auburn (six) and Texas (six).

While I'm a little surprised at Washington, overall the results aren't too shocking. With the exception of USC and Texas' recent resurgences, these are all teams far removed from their heyday (with the Huskies peaking right at the beginning of the period in question), yet many voters have a hard time looking at tradition-rich teams objectively. On paper, Notre Dame could have the exact same qualifications as, say, Iowa, but nine out of 10 times the voter is going to favor the Irish. It's something I try to make a conscious effort to avoid myself. Case in point: Minnesota finished 20th last season and returns nearly its entire team, yet is starting the season five spots lower, while Auburn, which finished last season unranked, is suddenly 17th.

Anticipating what your next question was going to be, yes, I compiled the same data for teams that finished at least seven spots higher than predicted. Teams didn't make nearly as many regular appearances in this category, probably because after exceeding expectations a few times voters got the message and started picking them higher.

The leaders, with five instances each, were Ole Miss, Iowa and Alabama, followed by LSU, Washington State, Virginia Tech, Kansas State and Texas A&M at four. The Rebels, Hawkeyes, Crimson Tide, Tigers and Cougars are textbook examples of teams whose breakthroughs have been sporadic enough so as to catch voters off guard when they happen. I was surprised, however, to see Alabama on the list. You'd think, with their tradition, voters would be more likely to err on the side of optimism.

Two final thoughts: If the media is so stricken with East Coast bias, as West Coasters allege, how come two Pac-10 teams are among the three most commonly overrated? And should we take this as a warning for this season in regard to USC? To answer the latter ...

most overrated....

1. Washington
2. Notre Dame
3. USC
4. Auburn
5. Texas

most underrated....

1. Ole Miss
2. Iowa
3. Alabama,
4. LSU
5. Washington State
6. Virginia Tech
7. Kansas State
8. Texas A&M

[coxew]

It all makes sense except for two things, Kansas State and Virginia Tech being UNDERrated. My perception of the two is that they are in the group of being highly OVERrated, at least in recent history.

[BuckeyeSoldier]

GOD DAMNIT MANDEL!!!!!


i JUST did a blog on this topic, but was having format issues and had requested help from clarity.. how DARE he beat me to it... although mine has charts..(or did before they crashed into a puddle of words when put on here) so take that mandel you ass monkey!!

[BuckeyeNation27]

dude just stop copying off of mandel

[JohnnyCockfight]

The problem with such a poll is that it doesn't adequately account for those teams that fall outside the top 25. Also, teams that are generally ranked in the top 5 don't have anywhere to go but down. This type of analysis is so basic that it's meaningless.

And this year we'll find out about Va Tech, now that it's in the Super ACC.

[3yardsandacloud]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeSoldier

GOD DAMNIT MANDEL!!!!!


i JUST did a blog on this topic, but was having format issues and had requested help from clarity.. how DARE he beat me to it... although mine has charts..(or did before they crashed into a puddle of words when put on here) so take that mandel you ass monkey!!

Soldier, Clarity will be off the boards until Friday (best guess) as his house was hit by lightning. Once he helps get your graphics fixed we'll get your blog up and running ... Mandel be damned!

[BuckeyeSoldier]

you know i love you right 3yards?