tOSU's BCS Bowl possibilities

[BB73]

If tOSU wins out, thus staying in the BCS top-14, they will likely get either a Rose or Fiesta bowl bid, but it is not guaranteed.

Even if Utah and Boise St. both finish in the top-12, only 1 of them is guaranteed a spot. The fan base and TV ratings make tOSU an easy choice over the lower-rated of Boise and Utah. And as long as tOSU only has 2 losses, no 2nd place ACC or Big East team would get picked ahead of tOSU.

But there are two scenarios in which tOSU would be denied:

1. If MSU wins out, and PSU's only loss is to MSU, Michigan State wins the automatic Rose Bowl bid. The 3-way tie-breaker, when each of the teams have a 1-1 record against each other, is that the team that played the fewest FCS (1-AA) opponents gets the Rose Bowl bid. I'm not kidding, the YSU game would cost tOSU the Rose Bowl. If tOSU hadn't played YSU, PSU would have been eliminated in the tie-breaker because of Coastal Carolina, and then tOSU would get the bid based on beating MSU head-to-head.

2. If Penn State is in the Rose, and either Oregon State or Cal win out and gets the Pac-10 automatic bid in the head-to-head tiebraker over USC, tOSU could get bypassed as an at-large.

If the Rose Bowl is Oregon-State-Penn State (or Cal-PSU), tOSU would probably NOT get an at-large bid (SEC, Big 12, USC, and Boise/Utah would get them).

The selection process would be:
#1 Alabama #2 Texas Tech (if they're both undefeated)
Rose: Oregon State/Cal automatic
Rose: Penn State automatic
Orange: ACC champ automatic
Sugar: 1st replacement pick for Bama: USC, or 2-loss Florida
Fiesta: 2nd replacement pick for Texas Tech: Texas (if they have only 1 loss, they're #3 or #4, and Fiesta has a relationship with the Big 12)
Fiesta: USC, or 2-loss Florida
Sugar: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)
Orange: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)

But if Penn State makes the Title game, and Oregon State or Cal make the Rose Bowl, it gets interesting.

If USC is not in the top 2 of the BCS, the at-large bids would be either:
tOSU, Big 12 team, USC, and a top-12 Utah/Boise St. team, OR
SEC team, Big 12 team, USC, and a top-12 Utah/Boise St. team.

So if the Rose Bowl selected tOSU to play oOSU/Cal, the other bowls would have to leave out USC, SEC runner-up, or Big 12 runner-up (If USC and Texas each only have 1 loss, and get selected, the SEC would raise hell, and it would be tOSU's fault).

The selection process would likely be:
#1 Texas Tech plays #2 Penn St (if they're both undefeated and Bama gets beat)
Rose: Oregon State automatic
Sugar: SEC Champ automatic
Orange: ACC champ automatic
Fiesta: 1st replacement pick for Texas Tech: Texas (if they have only 1 loss, they're #3 or #4, and Fiesta has a relationship with the Big 12)
Rose: 2nd replacement pick for PSU: Ohio State (to keep the conference tradition, and avoid a USC-Oreg St/Cal. rematch)
Fiesta: USC, because they can, and it's a great game
Sugar: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)
Orange: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)

Here's the likely selection process if USC is in the Rose and Penn State is in the Title Game:
#1 Texas Tech plays #2 Penn St (if they're both undefeated and Bama gets beat)
Rose: USC automatic
Sugar: SEC Champ automatic
Orange: ACC champ automatic
Fiesta: 1st replacement pick for Texas Tech: Texas (if they have only 1 loss, they're #3 or #4, and Fiesta has a relationship with the Big 12)
Rose: 2nd replacement pick for PSU: 1-loss Alabama, if they only lose the SEC CCG (over 2-loss Ohio State, to avoid the USC-tOSU rematch)
Fiesta: Ohio State
Sugar: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)
Orange: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)

Here's the likely selection process if USC and Penn State are in the Rose Bowl:
#1 Alabama plays #2 Texas Tech (if they're both undefeated)
Rose: USC and Penn State automatic
Orange: ACC champ automatic
Sugar: 1st replacement pick for Alabama: 2-loss Florida (Fiesta would have to approve selection of Texas)
Fiesta: 2nd replacement pick for Texas Tech: Texas
Fiesta: tOSU
Sugar: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)
Orange: Big East Champion or Boise St/Utah (whichever of those 2 is higher but inside the BCS top-12)

[Taosman]

BCS Standings - November 2, 2008
1Alabama
2.Texas Tech
3.Penn
4.Texas
5.Florida
6.Oklahoma
7.USC
8. Utah
9.OklahomaState
10.Boise State
11.Ohio State

[FWBuckeye]

I wouldn't count TCU out of the BCS At-Large conversation either. I've seen scenarios that would have them in over an undefeated Boise State due to TCU's strength of schedule vs Boise State, assuming of course TCU beats Utah on Thursday and beats Air Force later this month. They aren't that far away from Boise State in the computers right now and beating an undefeated Utah team in SLC and a currently 7-2 Air Force team could put them over Boise in the computers, especially if Oklahoma, their only loss, finishes strong and possibly even makes the national title game. They are also only about 90 points behind Boise State in the Coaches Poll and I think a win over Utah, especially if it is a blow out like the BYU game was, would put them over Boise State in the polls.

I don't think any of that is relevant to Ohio State's chances of getting an at large BCS bearth, but as a TCU fan I thought I should at least get them in the conversation.

[OHSportsFan9]

I really hope MSU loses.

I want that Rose Bowl bid.

Sounds like a raw deal if they get it over OSU, when we beat them at their place.

Still, another downside to playing I-AA teams.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by OHSportsFan9

Still, another downside to playing I-AA teams.

Wah [censored]ing wah. I'm sick of folks [censored]ing and moaning about us playing YSU. All we had to do was take care of business against PSU and this all would be a moot point.

[ScriptOhio]

There is still a whole lot of football yet to be played. As a minimun:

1. Either Alabama or Florida has to lose another game (win remaining conference games and meet in the SEC Championship game) .
2. There will be three more losses between Oklahoma State, Oklahoma. and Texas Tech (they still have to play each other).

[Gatorubet]

I think if we beat an undefeated Bama, we have a shot at jumping JoePa based upon the anti Big-10 bias.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by Gatorubet

I think if we beat an undefeated Bama, we have a shot at jumping JoePa based upon the anti Big-10 bias.

You'd be a lock if Herbstreit had a say in it...

[IronBuckI]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Wah [censored]ing wah. I'm sick of folks [censored]ing and moaning about us playing YSU. All we had to do was take care of business against PSU and this all would be a moot point.

Wah [censored]ing wah. I'm sick of YSU alumni [censored]ing and moaning about people [censored]ing and moaning and acting like us playing YSU wouldn't/couldn't come back to bite us.

[LitlBuck]

Originally Posted by Gatorubet

I think if we beat an undefeated Bama, we have a shot at jumping JoePa based upon the anti Big-10 bias.

From what I saw Saturday night, you guys certainly would deserve it.

[bukIpower]

hmmm well I won't lie I woud LOVE to have another Texas vs tOSU matchup! Our board was electric around gametime in 05-06 and it would sure be the same way if we got to play them again. I personally feel PSU will clean up MSU so thats not to worry. If we win I think we get in so thats all that matters! We need to play well at Illinois or we will lose ( duh hu?).

I feel that we will get a lot of flak even if we do get in and rightfully so.. That's why even if we go to a BCS bowl it's very important to this program that we perform (Another duh)

[fourteenandoh]

i've come to one clonclusion looking at all of the scenarios. this bowl season is going to be awesome. not just for us, but across the board. there are a lot of good teams out there, IMO.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by IronBuckI

Wah [censored]ing wah. I'm sick of YSU alumni [censored]ing and moaning about people [censored]ing and moaning and acting like us playing YSU wouldn't/couldn't come back to bite us.

I'm not a YSU alumni. Playing YSU isn't why we won't go to the Rose Bowl if MSU wins out...it's because we didn't beat PSU like we should have.

[3074326]

Originally Posted by Gatorubet

I think if we beat an undefeated Bama, we have a shot at jumping JoePa based upon the anti Big-10 bias.

If I had a vote and it counted, I would vote Florida in over PSU.

[fourteenandoh]

Originally Posted by 3074326

If I had a vote and it counted, I would vote Florida in over PSU.

+1 (even though some around here would accuse us "of buying into the media hype")