I've been sorting through the updated and byzantine new rules for BCS eligibility, specifically with regards to automatic bids. For the sake of argument, I'll use the current leaders in each conference.
We have 5 games, including the NC, thus ten invites.
First, the automatics:
- Each BCS conference, one automatic bid. There goes six of the ten invites.
- Big 12 - TTech (title game)
- SEC - Alabama (title game)
- Big Ten - Penn State
- Pac 10 - Oregon State
- ACC - ? Might as well guess UNC
- Big East - Pitt/Cincy/?
- Any non-BCS conference can get one automatic bid if they either have one team in the top 12, or one team in the top 16 that finishes ahead of a conference champion. Since the ACC, Big East and Pac 10 champs could all finish below 16th, this rule is live. There go three more slots.
- MWC - Utah
- WAC - Boise State
- MAC - Ball State
- If a BCS conference team finishes third in the BCS rankings and another team from their conference goes to the NC, the third place team gets an automatic bid. There goes the tenth and last BCS slot.
So what do we need? First, we need an at large slot to open up. Right now, there would be NO at large slots.
Scenarios that help:
- The ACC, Big East and Pac Ten champs climbing to 16th or higher. This means an Oregon State loss (making USC the Pac 10 champs) plus some losses for teams in the 10-16 range. All this does is eliminate Ball State, which can be accomplished by a Ball State loss. An Oregon State loss also means that we don't have to fight with USC for an at large.
- Losses by Texas, Oklahoma and Florida. If the title game is going to be Big 12 versus SEC, then we don't want a Big 12 or SEC team to finish third and get an automatic bid. Ideally, USC would finish third AND get the Pac 10 bid, which opens up an at large spot as well as keep USC from taking one.
- Losses by Utah, Boise State and Ball State. This is the most important scenario. One loss by any of those schools opens up an at large spot.
- Most importantly, a loss by Penn State to Michigan State, which gives the Bucks the automatic bid from the Big Ten.
Interestingly enough, climbing in the rankings doesn't do a thing to help us. A team can technically finish third (eg. USC), fail to win their conference (eg. USC) and through the process, completely miss out on a BCS bid. While unlikely, it is technically possible. This year, it is very likely that multiple teams ranked between 4th and 10th will be left out of the BCS.
11-16-2008, 03:10 PM
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