Chances of finishing in the Top 5

[MililaniBuckeye]

I was going to post this in the 2008 BCS Rankings thread, but after watching gatorubet and BB73 go at it for a few pages, I figured I'd post here to avoid it getting buried in that cyber landfill.

After having a few cold ones, I started to wonder just how good our chances are at finishing in the top five this year, in either poll. The AP coaches and coaches polls are virtually identical aside from having Florida and Oklahoma flip-flopped from each other, so my following guess work would apply to both. But for reference purposes, I'll use the AP poll, the current top nine of which are listed below (we're, of course, #10):

1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Utah
8. Texas Tech
9. Boise State


No matter had badly Florida or Oklahoma would lose, I think there's little chance we'd jump the loser of their game even if we were to blow out Texas (which ain't gonna happen). So, in my mind both will stay ahead of us, so neither will be one of the five teams we'd need to jump to finish in the top five. So, let's look at each game involving the other six of the seven teams currently ahead of us (Texas being the seventh):

#9 Boise State lost to #11 TCU by one point, so we'd jump Boise State and TCU wouldn't jump us, no matter how close out win over Texas would be. So, one down and four to go. A win against Texas obviously gets us past Boise State.

#8 Texas Tech vs. #22 Mississippi (Cotton Bowl). Not looking good for us here. Although Ole Miss beat Florida at Florida, I'm not holding my breath here. But, if TTU has major problems with the Rebels, I think we jump them with a win over Texas. We have to hope that TTU doesn't blow Mississippi out. A decent win against Texas and a non-blowout win by TTU (or, of course, a TTU loss) likely gets us past TTU.

#7 Utah vs. #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl). A loss by Utah drops them below us should we beat Texas, no matter how closely they loss to Alabama and how closely we beat Texas. The problem is if Utah wins, which very likely would be by a small margin (I don't see any team being able to blow out Alabama even if The Tide has a bad day). Should Alabama lose, they'd probably be jumped only by Utah and the Rose Bowl winner (and also TTU if TTU wins big). I think we really need 'Bama to beat Utah.

#6 Penn State vs. #5 USC (Rose Bowl). We need USC to beat Penn State. It would be much easier to justify us jumping Penn State than us jumping USC (can you imagine the media [censored]storm if we beat Texas, Penn State beats USC, and we end up ahead of USC despite our identical records and USC's 35-3 win over us?). It would be easy to negate Penn State's close win over us in The Shoe by pointing that they won the game mainly due to a mistake made by a true-freshman QB late in the game. Conversely, all the "We didn't have Beanie" and "we used two QBs" arguments for the USC debacle won't cut it for justifying us being ahead of USC should Penn State pull the upset. But, if our defense can shut down Penn State, I think USC's can, too.

So, I guess all this points to the fairly obvious: We we need the four teams ranked closest to us (Penn State, Utah, Texas Tech, and Boise State) to all lose and for us to beat Texas (I'd say by at least a TD, so that we'd jump Texas) for us to get into the top five. With Boise State's earlier loss, we now have only three more teams to root against. We may squeak into the top five even if Alabama and USC lose instead of Utah and Penn State, respectively, but I'd rather not rely on that.

[cincibuck]

How you gonna jump past two teams you lost to during the season, one in a blow out and the other in a home game?

In my best assessment I don't see a team in the top six that I think the Bucks could beat in a bowl game. Utah and Boise State have no business in the top twenty, let alone in the top ten. Texas Tech will give anyone a scare.

Let's be honest here, the Big 10 was way down this year and the Bucks did not play up to expectations. Just to finish in the Top 10 will be an homage to OSU's past performances.

[Gatorubet]

I dunno Mili, I think you want JoPa to beat USC for generic conference status. Penn State being waxed and you have flash backs to the USC game in the mind of voters when they assess the Buckeyes. I'm rooting against USC.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by cincibuck

How you gonna jump past two teams you lost to during the season, one in a blow out and the other in a home game?

If USC beats Penn State, and we beat Texas, USC will jump Texas and be in the top four, thus ahead of us. I already explained why we'd be justified being ranked ahead of Penn State.

Originally Posted by Gatorubet

I dunno Mili, I think you want JoPa to beat USC for generic conference status. Penn State being waxed and you have flash backs to the USC game in the mind of voters when they assess the Buckeyes. I'm rooting against USC.

If Penn State beats USC, I doubt we'd jump USC, and that's my point. Now, will Penn State beating USC and us beating Texas restore some pride to the Big Ten? Absolutely. But that's not what I'm addressing, which is how we can get into the top five...and to do that, we need Penn State to lose.

[Gatorubet]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

If Penn State beats USC, I doubt we'd jump USC, and that's my point. Now, will Penn State beating USC and us beating Texas restore some pride to the Big Ten? Absolutely. But that's not what I'm addressing, which is how we can get into the top five...and to do that, we need Penn State to lose.

I know. I get that. I guess I'm just saying that I think it would be better in the overall scheme of things (for tOSU) for Penn State to win than for USC to beat the Big Ten Champ, even if tOSU were to finish in the top 5.

Just my opinion.

[Steve19]

I think the scenario you paint sounds very reasonable to me, Mili.

But, if I had my 'druthers, I'd rather that all of the Big Ten teams win their major bowls. I don't think that is very likely, but it's what I'd really like to see.

[BB73]

Without worrying too much about margin of victory, I'd say that 4 teams will stay ahead of tOSU, regardless of tOSU's result in the Fiesta:

Oklahoma, Florida, winner of Bama-Utah, and winner of USC-PSU.

I think if tOSU wins and USC loses, tOSU would go ahead of USC. The last game means so much to the voters in January. I certainly hope the voters have to make that decision.

But if that wasn't the case, I'm not going to pull for PSU to lose so that tOSU can gain 1 spot in the final poll. The prestige of the Big Ten winning both BCS games would be very helpful, and I'd take that compared to a #5 vs. a #6 ranking.

[martinss01]

imo the most important game for tOSU (should we beat texas) is the nc game. if ou wins, the big 12 is validated as being the best conference this year. under such a scenario we would have beat the team that "should" have played for the nc in ou's place. major props for tOSU would follow. but if ou and texas loose... you have the same nightmare perception scenario that occurred to the big 10 in 06. and god help us if ou looses badly. if that happens we did nothing more than beat an overrated texas from a wildly overrated conference and deserve no consideration what-so-ever. if we loose its even worse. especially if penn state looses to USC. right wrong or indifferent, judgment of tOSU for this season rests on the nc game for the 3rd straight year.

heres the funny part. if ou beats florida we could loose to texas and STILL finish with a better perception than if ou gets blown out and we destroy texas. i still believe that usc next year is a far bigger game perception wise than texas this year. not from a reality standpoint, but from a media perception one. beating usc changes everything. beating texas... well that only matters if ou beats florida.

really, tOSU would have been FAR better off playing georgia in the citrus. personally, i don't think tOSU would have any problems handling georgia and the sec imo is far less likely to face criticism should they loose one or both bcs games.

[BB73]

Another thing to consider is the prestige associated with having the most BCS bowl wins all-time.

Wins by tOSU and Penn State would result in tOSU sharing the record with USC: 5 BCS bowl wins.

[ant80]

Originally Posted by BB73

Another thing to consider is the prestige associated with having the most BCS bowl wins all-time.

Wins by tOSU and Penn State would result in tOSU sharing the record with USC: 5 BCS bowl wins.

Guess the record's going to stay with USC for now.

But back on topic, I really doubt anybody is going to put OSU behind PSU given that they only lost by 14. I know... that's not representative of the total domination, and that USC actually sleepwalked through the 2nd half, but there's going to be a lot of pollsters who go off of the final score.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by ant80

...but there's going to be a lot of pollsters who go off of the final score.

Since that was the only [censored]ing game on at the time, if they so do they should have their voting privileges shoved up their collective asses.

Back to the topic, all we need now is for Utah to lose and teams #6 thru #9 will have all lost.

[Hawk Spielman]

Mililani, that Utah blowout is looking good right now...lol.

[ant80]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Back to the topic, all we need now is for Utah to lose and teams #6 thru #9 will have all lost.

Man... this week is just not your week... isn't it...

[scarletngray]

Well, as things have played out, IF we beat Texas, we should indeed finish in the top 5.

[JXC]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Since that was the only [censored]ing game on at the time, if they so do they should have their voting privileges shoved up their collective asses.

Back to the topic, all we need now is for Utah to lose and teams #6 thru #9 will have all lost.

I think Utah winning didn't matter as far as our ranking if we beat Texas. We will jump Alabama if we beat Texas. I think the polls are pretty obvious as far as how they will end up if Ohio State wins, at least in my mind.

1. UF/OU winner
2. Utah
3. USC
4. UF/OU loser
5. Ohio State