Reasons for the slump... and is it over now?

[JimsSweaterVest]

Some of you may have heard that tOSU football went through a bit of a "slump" between January 2007 and September 2008, marked by 3 "big-game meltdowns." Over the months, many of you on here, on other forums and blogs, in the media, and in Buckeye Nation at large have tried to give a well-founded diagnosis of what was going on. Here are some of the reasons that stuck in my mind. These are reasons we can see with hindsight, not excuses. None of them alone is responsible for what happened, but together they may explain a lot of it.

Sorry for not crediting the sources for each, as these were accumulated in my mind over the course of many months. I'm not saying I agree with all these, and there may well be others, but hopefully this can get a discussion started, without the doom-and-gloom naysayers bemoaning the death of Buckeye football and telling us how badly we "suck" and how Tress is the "worst D1 coach ever."

Possible reasons for the slump:

1. Sub-optimal recruiting following the 2002 national championship: Recruiting was not at its very best in 2003 and 2004. The class of 2003 mostly withered away (Kirk Barton being a shining exception). Recruiting was hurt by the specter of Maurice Clarett, and incidents like the infamous "$500 handshake" (so beloved of Vulvarine fans) helped other coaches convince potential recruits and their parents that shady happenings were going on in Columbus.

2. The coordinators: We lost Mark Dantonio, who was the last tOSU coordinator to get a head coaching position elsewhere. Jim Bollman became (titular?) OC, and Tress assumed play-calling duties. As far back as 2004, the media have Herbie calling on Tress to relinquish play-calling and hire a new OC. Unlike other elite programs, Tress' coordinators were not being snapped up to head coaching positions elsewhere, raising doubts about just how desirable they are to other schools.

3. Tresselball: defense, special teams, punt, play not to lose, conservative play-calling, "frozen 1950's coach," yadda yadda. In addition, the much-ballyhooed "spread" seemed on the rise (we can thank DickRod's rookie year at Meatchicken for taking some of the luster off this snake-oil gimmick), and Tresselball seemed unable to stop it, especially against Florida.

4. The Debacle in the Desert: an overconfident, uninspired team got beat pretty bad. Some players got fat off the awards circuit (and from eating too much in AZ), rested on their laurels, took the opponent lightly (and they have SEC speed, mind you!), were looking ahead to the NFL, etc. Hubris gave way to humiliation. The younger players on that team took a psychological hit.

5. The ESPN Hatefest: ESPN's business interests conflicted with the launch of the Big Ten Network, so they took out their anger on the Big Ten's major power, and plumbed hitherto-unreached depths in the deep seas of bad sports journalism. This may have hurt morale on the team.

6. The weak Big Ten: As much as we love our conference brothers, for the most part they have been going through some rough times. They did not offer the Buckeyes too many challenges on the field, and the Buckeyes had little opportunity to learn how to "deal with adversity" and "come back from behind" in conference play.

7. Replacing Troy Smith with a "one-dimensional" quarterback: We may not have had much choice at the time, and Todd certainly earned his starting position, but tOSU offense would have benefited from a dual-threat QB, especially considering #11 below.

8. The regression of Todd Boeckman: After winning at Penn State, Todd's performance seems to have regressed through the Illinois game, the LSU game, and the USC game. If you go back to read the threads from the USC game on here, many of you pointed out how shaken he was.

9. The BCS Mess: The 2007 Buckeyes were supposed to be having a "rebuilding" year. Many talking-heads predicted they wouldn't even win the Big Ten Championship. Yet they overachieved, won the conference, and finished their season ranked 7. Not too shabby for a rebuilding year! The BCS mess that followed cornered them into the National Championship game against a much better equipped LSU, and they were set up to lose again, to the mighty SEC. (Remember, people, the SEC have a lot of speed.) There may also have been a sense of "Here we go again." (See #4.)

10. Lessons not learned: The LSU loss was a loss to a better team, but it was also marred by many mistakes on our part. The lessons from that game were clearly not learned between January and September 2008.

11. The OSU offense struggled. The O-Line could not protect Todd in the pocket. Todd was getting sacked too often. It sometimes felt as if Beanie Wells WAS the Ohio State offense. Not having him in the USC game hurt us (as did not having Teddy against Florida). (BTW did I mention SEC speed? Remember folks that the SEC got speed!) While not scoring an offensive touchdown against USC can be attributed to the great USC defense, not scoring one against Purdue is an indicator of a struggling offense.

These are all the reasons I can think of so far. Feel free to correct any mistakes, voice your opinions, or add some more to the list.

Now on to reasons why I think the slump is over:

1. Jim Tressel: You can't say enough good things about him, as a coach, as an educator, as a father-figure to his players.Tressel is building up this program for the long-term. He runs a good program, has a solid focus on academics (His players even had MATH camp this year!), and with a more open and imaginative playbook, he may re-invigorate the battered image of Tresselball.

2. Our players (for the most part) are good kids, on and off the field. They are not a bunch of thugs, or sanctimonious hypocritical preachers. It doesn't hurt that they're also very good football players!

3. Recruiting is going very well. Our incoming recruiting classes are ranked high.

4. That new quarterback guy. Enough said!

5. All (or almost all) the guys who were at the Debacle in the Desert (which started this whole thing) are gone. Any psychological left-overs from that game are no longer on the team. The team is new and fresh.

6. The Fiesta, while still a loss, was the most exciting bowl game of the season, down to the last minute! It proved we can compete with anyone and restored a lot of respect to the program.

Now is the time for the new TP-led team to heal, learn the lessons of this season, especially the USC game, and prepare to face the Trojans in Columbus in September. A win will be huge, but if the Trojans are still superior, then a loss with honor will do.

I am very optimistic that the slump is over now, and that bright days are ahead for Buckeye football.

Sorry for the very long post.

[Wells4Heisman]

Great post!

[RugbyBuck]

Got to disagree with the use of the word "slump". I wouldn't characterize us as being in a slump since winning the '02 NC. We lost badly to a UF team that should've beaten us that year (perhaps not that badly) for the NC. We lost another NC game to LSU when we really shouldn't have been there in the first place (as you mentioned). The game was actually closer than the year before, but we were plagued by uncharacteristic mental mistakes. This year we lost badly to USC and close games to PSU and Tejas managing to be embarassed in only one of our three nationally televised night games.

We've won a share of the conference four years in a row, split regular season games with Texas, won 3 of 4 Fiesta Bowls, played in two NC games, and beaten scUM senseless with three different quarterbacks. I just don't see that as a slump. If anything, I'd argue that we've been as good or better since the 14-0 season as before it. You can't win an NC every year. Two in a decade would be impressive and to play in and lose other NC games would be a testament to one's program. If we've been in a slump the last five or six years, I imagine that 111 or 112 of the other schools would like to experience one.

[JimsSweaterVest]

RugbyBuck, I didn't say the slump has been going on since 2003. I said in the first sentence that it lasted from January 2007 through September 2008, in which we lost three big OOC games. In the meantime, we continued to dominate our conference and win the vast majority of our games.

But three consecutive big-game meltdowns in the national spotlight is a slump to me and many others on here. You have every right to disagree, but try to remember what you felt like on the morning of September 14, 2008. Or re-read the posts on this forum from then.

It is a much-discussed topic, so I just put together a synthesis of the main themes of those discussions as I remember them.

[Tresselbeliever]

I think it was mostly due to the defense losing confidence at various times. I'm not talking about the last drive against UT, they played inspired on that drive. But there have been way too many times when they see the offense sputter, and their tackling and pursuit and aggressiveness all began to crumble. I can't explain it, perhaps it was due to the media hype before UF and the return to reality after that. But it's definitely something intangible, because we saw them make the plays against one team that they missed terribly against others.

Anyway, I think that the Texas effort has restored some much needed pride back into this defense, and the depth and talent on DL is going to propel this team to another level next season.

[LordJeffBuck]

Funny, I'm working on an article about this right now....

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

Some of you may have heard that tOSU football went through a bit of a "slump" between January 2007 and September 2008, marked by 3 "big-game meltdowns." Over the months, many of you on here, on other forums and blogs, in the media, and in Buckeye Nation at large have tried to give a well-founded diagnosis of what was going on. Here are some of the reasons that stuck in my mind. These are reasons we can see with hindsight, not excuses. None of them alone is responsible for what happened, but together they may explain a lot of it.

Sorry for not crediting the sources for each, as these were accumulated in my mind over the course of many months. I'm not saying I agree with all these, and there may well be others, but hopefully this can get a discussion started, without the doom-and-gloom naysayers bemoaning the death of Buckeye football and telling us how badly we "suck" and how Tress is the "worst D1 coach ever."

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

Possible reasons for the slump:

1. Sub-optimal recruiting following the 2002 national championship: Recruiting was not at its very best in 2003 and 2004. The class of 2003 mostly withered away (Kirk Barton being a shining exception). Recruiting was hurt by the specter of Maurice Clarett, and incidents like the infamous "$500 handshake" (so beloved of Vulvarine fans) helped other coaches convince potential recruits and their parents that shady happenings were going on in Columbus.

Yes ... and don't forget about the under-achieving class of 2004 that produced three legit stars (Ginn, Gholston, Pittman), a few solid starters (Freeman, Nicol, Person, Rehring), and little else (including about ten outright busts). Recruiting took small steps forward in 2005-2007, and huge steps forward in 2008 and 2009.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

2. The loss of Mark Dantonio: Jim Bollman became (titular?) OC, and Tress assumed play-calling duties. As far back as 2004, the media have Herbie calling on Tress to relinquish play-calling and hire a new OC. Unlike other elite programs, Tress' coordinators were not being snapped up to head coaching positions elsewhere, raising doubts about just how desirable they are to other schools.

Dantonio was the defensive coordinator, so I'm not sure where you're going with this one. In any event, the loss of Dantonio has not affected the Buckeyes at all (except in the minds of Buckeye fans who somehow seem to associate Mark D. with the "good old days"....). The role of coaches is always over-emphasized by fans. Talent is the difference about 95% of the time.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

3. Tresselball: defense, special teams, punt, play not to lose, conservative play-calling, "frozen 1950's coach," yadda yadda. In addition, the much-ballyhooed "spread" seemed on the rise (we can thank DickRod's rookie year at Meatchicken for taking some of the luster off this snake-oil gimmick), and Tresselball seemed unable to stop it, especially against Florida.

Tresselball works in college and in the NFL, but it requires talent and mental toughness, qualities that have been somewhat lacking in recent years. As Florida showed in 2006 and LSU in 2007 and USC in 2008, a talent gap at a couple of positions combined with a few key mental/physical lapses can turn a fairly evenly matched contest into a blow out. But see Penn State 2008 and Texas 2008 - two games that were basically played "even" - for a reversal of that trend.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

4. The Debacle in the Desert: an overconfident, uninspired team got beat pretty bad. Some players got fat off the awards circuit (and from eating too much in AZ), rested on their laurels, took the opponent lightly (and they have SEC speed, mind you!), were looking ahead to the NFL, etc. Hubris gave way to humiliation. The younger players on that team took a psychological hit.

I'll discuss this one in my article....

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

5. The ESPN Hatefest: ESPN's business interests conflicted with the launch of the Big Ten Network, so they took out their anger on the Big Ten's major power, and plumbed hitherto-unreached depths in the deep seas of bad sports journalism. This may have hurt morale on the team.

1000% irrelevant.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

6. The weak Big Ten: As much as we love our conference brothers, for the most part they have been going through some rough times. They did not offer the Buckeyes too many challenges on the field, and the Buckeyes had little opportunity to learn how to "deal with adversity" and "come back from behind" in conference play.

If you beat all of the teams on your schedule, then you will be in the hunt for a national championship ... so, largely (maybe 98%) irrelevant.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

7. Replacing Troy Smith with a "one-dimensional" quarterback: We may not have had much choice at the time, and Todd certainly earned his starting position, but tOSU offense would have benefited from a dual-threat QB, especially considering #11 below.

Todd Boeckman will be the last of his kind at Ohio State ... at least so long as Tressel is head coach. If tOSU had a "dual threat" QB waiting in the wings for 2007, it certainly would have made the TS-TP transition much smoother and easier ... and it might have given Pryor some more time to "learn on the job" as opposed to being "The Man" in his fourth-ever college football game.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

8. The regression of Todd Boeckman: After winning at Penn State, Todd's performance seems to have regressed through the Illinois game, the LSU game, and the USC game. If you go back to read the threads from the USC game on here, many of you pointed out how shaken he was.

Regression never helps, especially with the starting quarterback.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

9. The BCS Mess: The 2007 Buckeyes were supposed to be having a "rebuilding" year. Many talking-heads predicted they wouldn't even win the Big Ten Championship. Yet they overachieved, won the conference, and finished their season ranked 7. Not too shabby for a rebuilding year! The BCS mess that followed cornered them into the National Championship game against a much better equipped LSU, and they were set up to lose again, to the mighty SEC. (Remember, people, the SEC have a lot of speed.) There may also have been a sense of "Here we go again." (See #4.)

1000% irrelevant - crap like this just gives the talking heads something to jaw about during the halftime shows.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

10. Lessons not learned: The LSU loss was a loss to a better team, but it was also marred by many mistakes on our part. The lessons from that game were clearly not learned between January and September 2008.

Don't see the point here....

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

11. The OSU offense struggled. The O-Line could not protect Todd in the pocket. Todd was getting sacked too often. It sometimes felt as if Beanie Wells WAS the Ohio State offense. Not having him in the USC game hurt us (as did not having Teddy against Florida). (BTW did I mention SEC speed? Remember folks that the SEC got speed!) While not scoring an offensive touchdown against USC can be attributed to the great USC defense, not scoring one against Purdue is an indicator of a struggling offense.

Self-evident. Offenses tend to struggle when a true freshman is playing quarterback. Offenses also tend to struggle when the head coach plays Tresselball, which emphasizes strong defense and special teams. Should the offense be better? Yes. Will the offense improve in 2009? Yes. Will we see the Bucks putting up sixty points a game like Oklahoma? No ... which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

Now on to reasons why I think the slump is over:

1. Jim Tressel: You can't say enough good things about him, as a coach, as an educator, as a father-figure to his players.Tressel is building up this program for the long-term. He runs a good program, has a solid focus on academics (His players even had MATH camp this year!), and with a more open and imaginative playbook, he may re-invigorate the battered image of Tresselball.

2. Our players (for the most part) are good kids, on and off the field. They are not a bunch of thugs, or sanctimonious hypocritical preachers. It doesn't hurt that they're also very good football players!

3. Recruiting is going very well. Our incoming recruiting classes are ranked high.

4. That new quarterback guy. Enough said!

5. All (or almost all) the guys who were at the Debacle in the Desert (which started this whole thing) are gone. Any psychological left-overs from that game are no longer on the team. The team is new and fresh.

6. The Fiesta, while still a loss, was the most exciting bowl game of the season, down to the last minute! It proved we can compete with anyone and restored a lot of respect to the program.

One reason - talent. I will say right now that the 2008 and 2009 classes combined have brought in more raw talent than the 2004-2007 classes combined. The talent in Columbus for the 2010 season will be absolutely unreal.

Originally Posted by JimsSweaterVest

[JimsSweaterVest]

LordJeffBuck, that was a pretty quick reply! I am guessing you type at SEC speed!

Good luck with the article!

[RugbyBuck]

You're right, my apologies. I guess I looked at your bullet point on sub-par recruiting post-2002 and ran with it.

I'll give you the big losses to UF, LSU, and USC, but I'm still not sure that they amount to a slump. We simply weren't good enough to beat those teams in 1/07 - 9/08 or before. As you and LJ have said, our talent level is now getting to the point where we can consistently compete and win against those types of schools. Dropping a few after that would be a slump.

[Buckeneye]

Originally Posted by RugbyBuck

We simply weren't good enough to beat those teams in 1/07

I can't say I agree with that on any level what-so-ever.

[WoodyWorshiper]

Maybe I'm missing something here, and I'm not trashing, but this thread made absolutely zero sense to me. I'm sorry, but that's the way that I read it. The only thing that held any substance was your apology for making this "very long post." I think I know what you were "trying" to do, in laying a foundation for future greatness despite recent disappointments, but this thing went off in way too many directions.

JMO

Peace.

[shetuck]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

...and don't forget about the under-achieving class of 2004 that produced three legit stars (Ginn, Gholston, Pittman), a few solid starters (Freeman, Nicol, Person, Rehring), and little else (including about ten outright busts). Recruiting took small steps forward in 2005-2007, and huge steps forward in 2008 and 2009.

... I will say right now that the 2008 and 2009 classes combined have brought in more raw talent than the 2004-2007 classes combined. The talent in Columbus for the 2010 season will be absolutely unreal.

FWIW. Just got posted yesterday...

A Look Back at Buckeyes Recruiting in the Jim Tressel Era | Bleacher Report

[...]

After a real look back at the recruiting of Ohio State, it is little surprise that Ohio State struggled so after the last of the 2002 class left. The depth and success of talent on the team was not good, some excellent players, but far too many busts for this team to get over the top.

In short, this supports the idea that Ohio State has been overrated, living off the reputation of that 2002 class that dominated bowl season for four years.

There were enough of these Buckeyes left in 2006 for amazing season but not able to finish it off with a flat showing against Florida.

When the 2005 class took over, it just did not have the depth and development to be able to compete with the top teams. This isn't a knock against the elite players on these Ohio State teams; they will be drafted and have excellent NFL careers.

Too many injuries and setbacks among defensive line prospects; lack of O-line prospects; and lack of speed on the outside seriously hurt the Buckeyes.

It seems very clear that down periods in recruiting and weak Big 10 play have led to Ohio State struggles since their beating at the hands of Florida.

Ohio State fans will admit that OSU really wasn't ready for LSU in 2006, but we were happy for the shot since the rest of college football seemed happy to choke away their shot at the title.

Now the 2005 class has moved on and Tressel is starting a new with his first Top 5 class since 2002. The 2008 class was a god-send for the Buckeyes desperate for a deep class of athletes.

Add the speed of the 2009 class, and Ohio State may be a legitimate contender with the top teams in college football again.

The 2008 and 2009 classes could set up Ohio State up for another big bowl game run, a mobile, strong armed QB with serious speed surrounding him and a bookended O Line.

On defense, the new Buckeyes at linebacker can just fly, and the secondary has always been a strong point of Tressel teams.

This turn in recruiting could bring Ohio State back to the first tier of college football. That said, it is a certainty they will not let the Buckeyes back in easily and coming oh-so-close isn't going to cut it.

[MililaniBuckeye]

This turn in recruiting could bring Ohio State back to the first tier of college football.

Finishing #4, #2, #5, and #9 in the last four AP polls isn't being in the first tier?

[Steve19]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Finishing #4, #2, #5, and #9 in the last four AP polls isn't being in the first tier?

No! Darnit! We want #1 every year! If not, then I want my $77 back and I am off to ESPN! It's easier there and you can support the team of the day! Eleventy eleventy!

[OCBucksFan]

I think a lot of the "slump" as you call it had to do with the fact that we built our offense around a dual threat quarterback in Troy Smith, when he left, we thought Henton would step up and be the man. I thought he would be starting midway through last year, but legal troubles stopped that from happening, and then we got Pryor, so he fled. Todd was a good quarterback, but we had a system in place that wasn't quite the "spread option" but it was a nice variant of it that utilized the quarterbacks legs while still leaving the deep ball open and available. This year the adjustment that was made after the USC game changed a lot, Pryor's throws aren't quite there yet, leaving Robo and the other receivers pretty much unused for most of the game. I do wish short throws to Ballard had been put into the offense more, I felt there were a lot of games where we had the short pass for 5-6 yards over the middle and I think that would have helped TP's confidence a lot.

We also need to evaluate who we lost to in Bowl games, the two National Champions and the #3 team in the nation. I think we've done well, and I think next year the play calling will be a bit more exciting, but the system was changed to suit Todd and there just wasn't enough time in the season to change everything for TP.

[3074326]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Finishing #4, #2, #5, and #9 in the last four AP polls isn't being in the first tier?

If you ain't first, you're last!