Is JT's NC Window Closing?

[Taosman]

Top recruiting classes are a key element. The last 2 have been rated highly so maybe we are looking at another shot soon.
But, how long will the media hold 2006 and 2007 against us?
And who could have predicted the 2002 run?
Is there a "window"? I say no.

[jwinslow]

How about we wait until they actually start penalizing osu. Did you not see our ranking in August?

[sandgk]

Not really trying to be unhelpful, but I like easier conundrums like:

Is the window closing on Charlie Weis winning any national championships? (answer, yes, it closed when he left New England).
Is the window open for RR to win a national championship at STUN? (answer - that's a negative).
Is the window closed on Pete Carrol winning a repeat national championship? (well, he's already done that if you count the half a 'ship in one year an the BCS in the other - but, yes NCAA agents are surrounding his house right now, news at eleven, in 2011, scoop - he's toast).

As for JT, I think the number of chances he has remaining to win are dwindling, but I only say that because he has already indicated that he isn't going to go out like Bowden or Paterno. So, there are a finite number of remaining opportunities.

But, I do think he will net one, or maybe two more NCs before he is done.

[Piney]

LJB - Nice mathematical analysis of the window for National Titles.

But there are a couple of flaws.

First off, like BUCKYLE pointed out, this JT has won 5 National Titles (i know... probable not counting those)

Second is we are now in the BCS era and maybe historical numbers don't translate to this era. Cuz winning National Titles are now more difficult. Before the BCS era you could be playing a lesser team in your bowl game and had an easier path to claiming a National Title. Now you are playing the #2 ranked team.

The way titles were given out has also changed. (The USC AP title withstanding) There were alot of duplicate teams winning National Titles and some titles were given out before the Bowl Games.

Another point... might as well tell Oklahoma fans that Stoops window has closed cuz it was his 8th year last year and he just missed. So no more titles for Oklahoma until they fire Stoops.

[jwinslow]

The junior year for pryor and the brew crew falls on that 8th year.

As for a window closing, balderdash.
The great 02 class was missing the majority of the talent by 06.

2003 was a complete disaster, and was little help in 06 and virtually none in 07. The 04 class was mediocre at best.

If they can make it there with such meager classes, they can do it again with deeper classes.


I think this is a case of statistics distorting reality. Does anyone think the window is closing within 3-4 years on Carroll without ncaa penalties? How about meyer down the road? I don't buy that.

[t_BuckeyeScott]

I still think we're talking about to small of a sample size to draw conclusions from.

[Oneshot]

Originally Posted by BUCKYLE

JT has five NC's.

1991
1993
1994
1997
2002

Amen. Winners will be winners.

Except for Todd Dodge. Man is that a disaster down in Texas...

[LordJeffBuck]

Originally Posted by jwinslow

I think this is a case of statistics distorting reality. Does anyone think the window is closing within 3-4 years on Carroll without ncaa penalties? How about meyer down the road? I don't buy that.

How about JoPa in 1986? Back then, did anyone think that he'd be shut out for the next 20+ years?

Did anyone think that Steve Spurrier would be a one-hit wonder back in 1996?

Maybe JT and Bob Stoops break the mold, but this isn't merely a case of "statistics distorting reality" ... until it happens once, it hasn't happened.

I certainly hope that JT's window isn't closing, but history says that it is.

[BayBuck]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

I certainly hope that JT's window isn't closing, but history says that it is.

I think you're putting too much weight on what t_BuckeyeScott correctly notes is a pretty small sample size. History doesn't say his window is closing, it just provides a variety of statistics which you have limited in such a way as to present this argument (interesting though it may be). You mentioned several coaches who have won NCs more than a decade apart, and these stats do not account for a coach spending half his career at a separate school, nor for the multiple Division I NCs won prior to winning at OSU.

[Taosman]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
- Autobiography of Mark Twain

[jwinslow]

Did joepa run into an 8 year roadblock, or the b10?

I'd argue a more challenging league would benefit Carroll.

Also, he had another title stolen in the mid 90s.

Did the 8 year rule stop spurrier, or his ego/career path to the skins? That led to a major downgrade to south Carolina.


Is it unlikely? Perhaps, but closed?! Overstated.


Titles require great talent, coaching and luck, that's why they are so rare. That's what stopped osu the last two years, not their proximity to 02.

[buckiprof]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

How about JoPa in 1986? Back then, did anyone think that he'd be shut out for the next 20+ years?

Did anyone think that Steve Spurrier would be a one-hit wonder back in 1996?

Maybe JT and Bob Stoops break the mold, but this isn't merely a case of "statistics distorting reality" ... until it happens once, it hasn't happened.

I certainly hope that JT's window isn't closing, but history says that it is.

First, good thread and data gathering LJB!

Once State Penn announced they were joining the Big Ten, I for one realized there annual "prominence" wasn't going to be what it used to be. Now that wasn't known in 1986, but shortly after that it was.

Did anyone in 1996 think that Steve Spurrier would bolt his alma mater not too long after 1996 to venture into the NFL and then return to CFB at a lesser program than FLA? Had the ole ball coach stayed at FLA, do you think he would have won another NC?

The fact is that this is way too small a sample size to make any definitive generalizations. Especially when talking about what history is saying, then history should probably be broken into the pre-BCS era and BCS era. While that may be subject of another thread, looking at the history of the BCS era underscores that the sample size is too small. BCS came into existence in what, 1998? So only looking at the data since 1998 (because honestly, what happened before 1998 is not within the BCS era and we most definitely are in the BCS era), and only looking at the BCS champions, who has won multiple BCS championships? Anyone else besides Urban Meyer? So is the only way to multiple BCS championships in the BCS to have Urban Meyer as your coach?

Now I do think that the thread is still an interesting look at things and one can make nice observations and have neat conversations about the data. There can be great conversation. I honestly think that mixing non-BCS years with BCS years makes the "case" less statistical and I believe that the sample size is way too small, but still, one can have much great discussion about it.

[OCBucksFan]

Originally Posted by Bucky Katt

It isn't closing. It is closed. Something Tressel can't do with OOS recruits.

Fire him and hire that Rodriguez guy from Michigan, please.

I miss fungo already.

[Gatorubet]

Great thread. Statisticaly you'd have to think that the parity of the BCS era, with scholarship limits and all, would only increase the difficulty of repeat. That said, it looks to me like tOSU will actually be at a level greater than the rest of the B-10 for a few years, and you are a good pick to get to the BCSCG the next few years with a QB that is a rare commodity and talent. I say no, the window is still open.

[LordJeffBuck]

Originally Posted by jwinslow

Is it unlikely? Perhaps, but closed?! Overstated.

First, I said "closing", not "closed".

Maybe JT just wins it all in 2009 and doesn't try to challenge history....