Is JT's NC Window Closing?

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

How about JoPa in 1986? Back then, did anyone think that he'd be shut out for the next 20+ years?

Did anyone think that Steve Spurrier would be a one-hit wonder back in 1996?

Maybe JT and Bob Stoops break the mold, but this isn't merely a case of "statistics distorting reality" ... until it happens once, it hasn't happened.

I certainly hope that JT's window isn't closing, but history says that it is.

Tressel's been in three of the last seven BCS title games...while he has won only one, he's still getting there on a regular basis. To me, that shows he's keeping that window wide open.

Woody won two NCs in his first seven years, and then had to wait 11 more years until his next one. In fact, after going 4-5 in 1966 and 6-3 in 1967, there were many who were calling for his head, and it did appear that his "NC window" was not only closed but boarded shut. He ended up winning the 1968 NC and had the Bucks in position for 4-5 more through the early/mid '70s.

While I'm not pencilling in 2010 as a NC year like I did the 2006 season before the 2006 season even started, I think with Pryor and "Block O" as experienced juniors we should be the team to beat. Tressel's NC window is wide open and the breeze feels great...

[Bucky Katt]

Originally Posted by OCBucksFan

I miss fungo already.

That post was made prior to the capture of the little bastard. I had nothing to do with that awful, terrible post.

[matcar]

I'd say the window is closing if for no other reason that he's not gettin' any younger. I'd say if it doesn't happen in the next 3 years, it won't.

[FrancisSawyer]

If recruiting classes are any indication, he could be back very soon.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Tom Osborne was at Nebraska for 21 years (started in 1973) before he won his first NC, and then he won three in a four-year span ('94, '95, and '97). Before him Bob Devaney had been there for eight years before winning his two NCs. Paterno was at Penn State for 16 years before winning his first, and he still won another one four years later. Bowden was at FSU for 17 seasons before winning his first NC, and then he won another one six years later. Not winning NCs early in their careers didn't keep them from winning them later. If Tressel can win one NC and get into two other NC games in his first eight years while Devaney, Osborne, Paterno, and Bowden couldn't, there's no reason to think he can't do it down the road also. There are no limits are the amount of NCs a coach can win at one school, as Bryant (6) and McKay (5) have shown...not to mention Tressel's four NCs at YSU.

[Steve19]

LJB, can you tell how long each coach was in his current job when he won?

[Buckeye_Mike]

Before National Championships, no coach had ever won a National Championship.

[mercer_buckeye]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Tom Osborne was at Nebraska for 21 years (started in 1973) before he won his first NC, and then he won three in a four-year span ('94, '95, and '97). Before him Bob Devaney had been there for eight years before winning his two NCs. Paterno was at Penn State for 16 years before winning his first, and he still won another one four years later. Bowden was at FSU for 17 seasons before winning his first NC, and then he won another one six years later. Not winning NCs early in their careers didn't keep them from winning them later. If Tressel can win one NC and get into two other NC games in his first eight years while Devaney, Osborne, Paterno, and Bowden couldn't, there's no reason to think he can't do it down the road also. There are no limits are the amount of NCs a coach can win at one school, as Bryant (6) and McKay (5) have shown...not to mention Tressel's four NCs at YSU.

To add to Mili's point Paul Bryant won a "NC" in 1950 at Kentucky and didn't win another for 11 years. Bryant's window: 1950-1979. I think we're alright.

[LordJeffBuck]

I understand that there are some holes in my theory, which many of you have pointed out. But here are the two main points to take away from this: (1) it's pretty damned difficult to win multiple NC's, since only seventeen coaches have done it during the era or polling (75 years); and (2) most coaches who have won multiple NC's have done so with "dynasty" teams.

Tressel had a chance to turn that 2002 squad into a dynasty, but fell short in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2007. Entering 2009, the Buckeyes are clearly a fully rebuilt and re-invented team - all of the players who played in 2002 or were recruited in the wake of 2002 are gone, and so are some of the key coaches. Now JT has to win it all with a completely new regime, and historically speaking, that has been very hard to accomplish. For the most part, only the greatest coaches have been able to win multiple NC's years apart with dry spells in between - Woody, Bear, John McKay, throw JoPa in there if you want to count all of his perfect seasons along with his actual NC's (1968, 1969, 1973, 1982, 1986, 1994). Will Tressel be able to add his name to that short list?

Originally Posted by mercer_buckeye

To add to Mili's point Paul Bryant won a "NC" in 1950 at Kentucky and didn't win another for 11 years. Bryant's window: 1950-1979. I think we're alright.

A dubious claim.... LINK

If Kentucky gets that one, then I'll take 1996 and 1998, and call John Cooper a great coach.

[mercer_buckeye]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

A dubious claim.... LINK

If Kentucky gets that one, then I'll take 1996 and 1998, and call John Cooper a great coach.

Hence the "NC." The school claims it. Careful with the Cooper/Bryant banter. Paul Bryant is to John Cooper like an Uzi is to a banana.

[DaytonBuck]

People said Billy Donovan in NCAA hoops was finished the 2 torney's before he went back to back. Selfish teams, probably true, and the talent was slipping in Alligator land. You're a great coach you'll have a chance and you'll never know when you hit ace and king on the table.

[BayBuck]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

it's pretty damned difficult to win multiple NC's.

That's the firmest truth of the matter, and the biggest hurdle to JT eventually winning another title. Early, late, whenever, it's hard to do even once, let alone again and again.

I wonder how this discussion could be expanded to schools in general, regardless of how long a particular coach sticks around. I'd think that when a few decades have passed since a NC, it's tough to get back to that point, and we were darn fortunate to have JT finally win another one after Woody.

[DaytonBuck]

It's pretty hard to one MNC. It took CFB Jesus for Wack Brown to do it.

[BB73]

Originally Posted by Steve19

LJB, can you tell how long each coach was in his current job when he won?

.............1st yr as....1st yr in...1st yr at...1st yr....last yr
Coach........head coach...Div 1-A.....NC school...1-A MNC...of MNC
Bear Bryant....1945........1945.........1958......1961. .....1979
Bernie Bierman.1919........1925.........1932......1934... ...1941
Frank Leahy....1939........1939.........1941......1943.. ....1953
John McKay.....1960........1960.........1960......1962. .....1978
Bud Wilkinson..1947........1947.........1947......1950 ......1956
Woody Hayes....1949........1949.........1951......1954.. ....1968
Darrell Royal..1954........1954.........1957......1963.... ..1970
Barry Switzer..1973........1973.........1973......1974.. ....1985
Tom Osborne....1973........1973.........1973......1994 ......1997
Red Blaik......1934........1934.........1941......1944 ......1945
Ara Parseghian.1951........1951.........1964......1966 ......1973
Bob Devaney....1957........1957.........1962......1970 ......1971
Joe Paterno....1966........1966.........1966......1982 ......1986
Denny Erickson.1982........1986.........1989......1989.. ....1991
Bobby Bowden...1959........1970.........1976......1993.. ....1999
Pete Carroll...2001........2001.........2001......2003. .....2004
Urban Meyer....2001........2001.........2005......2006.. ....2008

[stxbuck]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

How about JoPa in 1986? Back then, did anyone think that he'd be shut out for the next 20+ years?

Did anyone think that Steve Spurrier would be a one-hit wonder back in 1996?

Maybe JT and Bob Stoops break the mold, but this isn't merely a case of "statistics distorting reality" ... until it happens once, it hasn't happened.

I certainly hope that JT's window isn't closing, but history says that it is.

I disagree that JT's window is closing based on a number of things

1-Joe Pa, IMO, is a bad example. His range of undefeated/NC seasons extends from 1968 to 1994-26 years-at the same school. Joe Pa and Bobby aside, there are virtually no long term, "legendary" coaches out there-guys w/ enough juice to have a job as long as they want it. Do Tressel,Saban,Meyer,and Carroll have the potential to do this-absolutely-will they-who knows-the longest any of them have in one D-1 place is 8 years-Tressel and Carroll.

2-Spurrier left Florida for the Skins in 2001. Given his current career arc-Skins, then Gamecocks, he hasn't had much of a realistic chance to win another NC-NFL, major rebuild job in the SEC. If he had stayed at Florida, his-and Urban Meyer's-career might look significantly different-it is what it is. Same thing w/ Jimmy Johnson-he left for the NFL and basically said sayonara to the idea of winning more NCs-he too was in a situation where he had everything running for continual elite status.

3-Osborne,Bryant,Spurrier,Johnson, Switzer(the illegalities make his situation/comparison a bit trickier) all had their recruiting running at the highest levels when they stepped down. Joe Pa and Bobby had the same until their early 70s-the late 90's. Tressel is 56, and I see no reason why the talent flow to tOSU cannot continue unabated for another 10-15 years. The last 2 classes-08,09-have been his best by far, and 10' should be another bumper crop as well. Bottom line, I don't see any indicators-age, recruiting lapses, NFL ambitions, sanctions,fights w/ the administration-that suggest Tressel will not have tOSU at an elite level-consistent Top 5 finishers, the NCs come when they come-for the rest of his tenure at tOSU-I doubt he will hang on until he becomes a figurehead. like Bowden or Paterno.