Is JT's NC Window Closing?

[LordJeffBuck]

Since national polling began back in 1934, seventeen head coaches have won multiple national championships as recognized by the sports writers (AP) or college football coaches (UPI, BCS, etc.):

Bear Bryant (Alabama): 1961, 1964, 1965, 1973, 1978, 1979
Bernie Bierman (Minnesota): 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940, 1941
Frank Leahy (Notre Dame): 1943, 1946, 1947, 1949, 1953
John McKay (Southern Cal): 1962, 1967, 1972, 1974, 1978
Bud Wilkinson (Oklahoma): 1950, 1955, 1956
Woody Hayes (Ohio State): 1954, 1957, 1968
Darrell Royal (Texas): 1963, 1969, 1970
Barry Switzer (Oklahoma): 1974, 1975, 1985
Tom Osborne (Nebraska): 1994, 1995, 1997
Red Blaik (Army): 1944, 1945
Ara Parseghian (Notre Dame): 1966, 1973
Bob Devaney (Nebraska): 1970, 1971
Joe Paterno (Penn State): 1982, 1986
Dennis Erickson (Miami): 1989, 1991
Bobby Bowden (Florida State): 1993, 1999
Pete Carroll (Southern Cal): 2003, 2004
Urban Meyer (Florida): 2006, 2008

On thirteen occasions, the multiple NC coaches won back-to-back championships, and on another five occasions, they won NC's separated by only one year. On seventeen occasions, the NC's were separated by more than one year. This means that half of the time, coaches who won multiple NC's did so with "dynasty" teams.

The largest period from first NC to last NC is Bear Bryant (19 years, from 1961-1979).

The average period between first NC and last NC is less than eight years (7.82), which means that head coaches have a very small window in which to achieve greatness.

Only eight of the seventeen coaches who have won multiple NC's have done so during a period of eight years or longer ... and three of those eight won all of their NC's within a period of exactly eight years. Only five head coaches have been able to win multiple NC's over the course of a decade or more - Bryant (19 years), McKay (17 years), Hayes (15 years), Switzer (12 years), and Leahy (11 years) - and each of those head coaches won at least three national titles.

The largest period between any two NC's by the same coach is Woody Hayes (12 years, from 1957-1968).

The average period between any two NC's by the same head coach is less than four years (3.83).

Only four times has a head coach gone eight or more years between NC's - Woody Hayes (12 years, see above), Barry Switzer (11 years, from 1975 to 1985), Bear Bryant (9 years, from 1965 to 1973), and Ara Parseghian (8 years, from 1966 to 1973) ... while the other 31 periods between NC's was seven years or less, with 18 of those 31 periods being only one year (back-to-back) or two years.

The largest period between first NC and second NC is eight years for Ara Parseghian (1966-1973), while the average period between first NC and second NC is just over four years (4.06).

The 2009 season will be the eighth since Jim Tressel won his lone national championship. So, if Jim Tressel is going to win another national championship at Ohio State, he is probably going to have to do it soon, because at this point, the historical trends are decidedly starting to turn against him - (1) no coach has ever won his second NC more than eight years after his first NC, with the average gap being four years; (2) only four coaches have gone eight or more years between any two NC's, with the average gap being just under four years; and (3) only eight coaches have gone eight or more years between their first NC and their final NC, and the average window during which coaches win NC's is about eight years.

2009 could be an interesting season in Columbus....

['BusNative]

No, it's not.

[IronBuckI]

The 2009 season will be the eighth since Jim Tressel won his lone national championship.

Seventh

Nice topic though.

edit: Nevermind. You're counting the full season of the first and the full season of the second. Not exactly "years since", but I see what you're doing.

[LordJeffBuck]

2009 is the eighth since Jim Tressel won the NC - 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 - there's eight, count'em.

It might help to consider an actual example: Urban Meyer won NC's in 2006 and 2008, meaning that he won two titles in three years ... although the gap between his titles was only two years.

If JT wins it all in 2009, then he'll have two NC's in eight years, with a gap of seven between the two titles.

Regardless of how you want to interpret the numbers (period versus gap), the math is consistent throughout my post.

[BigWoof31]

LJB - this glass is half empty right?

[Buckeye Nut]

I wonder if any of the other coaches recruiting has been better eight years after the title like Tressel's has? I'm not too worried about it, our recruiting is as strong as it's been in JT's tenure and showing no signs of slowing down which means we're going to continue to be in the hunt.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

2009 is the eighth since Jim Tressel won the NC - 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 - there's eight, count'em.

Tressel won the title for the 2002 season, so that season shouldn't be counted as a season since he won a title. 2003 was the first season since his last NC, 2004 the second, etc. 2008 was the sixth season since the 2002 NC season, so 2009 will be the seventh. IronBuckI is right. So there.

As for his window closing...no way. Look at the great recruiting classes he's getting and how he's continually cranking BCS bowl teams. Hell, Bear Bryant had to wait eight seasons from his 1965 national title when he won it in 1973, and then he turned around and won two more five and six years after (1978, 1979). If anything, Bryant proved you can win NCs nearly 20 years apart.

[Bucky Katt]

It isn't closing. It is closed. Something Tressel can't do with OOS recruits.

Fire him and hire that Rodriguez guy from Michigan, please.

[BayBuck]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

The largest period between any two NC's by the same coach is Woody Hayes (12 years, from 1957-1968).

At least we do have history on our side with Woody showing there's no real cutoff between one and the next. And of course, there's a first time for everything (especially in sports statistics), so with JT's recruiting getting better and better I don't see the historical trends as too much of a factor for how the rest of his career can play out.

Great compilation of stats, though.

[BB73]

Of the 13 repeat titles, 3 of them are owned by Bernie Bierman and 2 by Bear Bryant. Bierman very rarely gets the credit he deserves.

For anybody wondering about '47 and '48 for TSUN, they had different coaches in those years (Crisler/Oosterbaan), and the poll taken after Rose Bowl following the '47 season wasn't recognized as official by the AP anyway.

The only coaches to win their third title after the 70s are Switzer and Osborne, who both deserve an astersisk. Oklahoma's '74 title came when they were on probation and didn't play in a bowl game; and Osborne's '97 title was a parting gift from the other coaches.

[Wingate1217]

Originally Posted by BayBuck

At least we do have history on our side with Woody showing there's no real cutoff between one and the next. And of course, there's a first time for everything (especially in sports statistics), so with JT's recruiting getting better and better I don't see the historical trends as too much of a factor for how the rest of his career can play out.

Great compilation of stats, though.

And don't forgot Woody has some close calls. The upset at AA in '69, the upset in the Rose Bowl in '71 (that one cost us a NC), the tie with Scum in '73, the loss to USC in '75 and the upset by UCLAin the '76 RB (who we beat earlier in the year) in the Rose Bowl. I believe that is six ones we could have won right there......You could argue it is not the time on the job but the age of the coach and is he willing to change. Woody didn't do that even though his assistant begged him to during the season or especially during the games....

Will JT be able to adapt? I hope so and he has showed a tendency to change depending on his personnel.....

[BUCKYLE]

JT has five NC's.

1991
1993
1994
1997
2002

[Buckeyefrankmp]

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

Tressel won the title for the 2002 season, so that season shouldn't be counted as a season since he won a title. 2003 was the first season since his last NC, 2004 the second, etc. 2008 was the sixth season since the 2002 NC season, so 2009 will be the seventh. IronBuckI is right.

Although I don't think one year means much, I agree with this statement if you are talking about years since.

[LordJeffBuck]

Originally Posted by Wingate1217

And don't forgot Woody has some close calls. The upset at AA in '69, the upset in the Rose Bowl in '71 (that one cost us a NC), the tie with Scum in '73, the loss to USC in '75 and the upset by UCLAin the '76 RB (who we beat earlier in the year) in the Rose Bowl. I believe that is six ones we could have won right there......You could argue it is not the time on the job but the age of the coach and is he willing to change. Woody didn't do that even though his assistant begged him to during the season or especially during the games....

Will JT be able to adapt? I hope so and he has showed a tendency to change depending on his personnel.....

Clearly, some luck is involved. Also, you have to have the voters on your side. Joe Paterno has NC's for 1982 and 1986, but he also had perfect seasons in 1968, 1969, 1973, and 1994 for which he was not awarded an NC. The period from 1968 to 1994 is 27 years, which far surpasses Bryant's reign of excellence (1961-1979).

[sepia5]

I have no doubt your historical analysis is correct, but I don't think you can draw the conclusion the door is closing on JT to win another NC.

Originally Posted by MililaniBuckeye

As for his window closing...no way. Look at the great recruiting classes he's getting and how he's continually cranking BCS bowl teams.

This is the key to me. Tressel is now recruiting like never before (I reach this conclusion by examining the level of talent he's bringing in, and by considering that he's doing so in multiple consecutive classes), and at a time when the rest of the Big Ten (perhaps--perhaps mind you--save PSU) is looking at an extended period of mediocrity. To me, that translates to at least a handful more NC appearances in the coming years, and with more talent than we've had for the past two attempts.