A Recruiting Explanation for OSU Big Game Letdowns

[Sportsbuck28]

Originally Posted by Buckeye86

I think people are reading this too much as a critique of Tressel. I wasn't trying to judge Tressel as a coach or compare him to any other coaches or anything like that. Think of the original post as an in depth analysis combined with Buckyle's comment.

[censored] happens. The [censored] that happened to the '03 and '04 recruiting classes hurt Ohio State chances to match up against the best teams in the country in the '06 and '07 National Championship games. That is not a comment on Coach Tressel, his recruiting ability, or his coaching ability, it is simply a comment on the [censored] that has happened.

Actually, I consider this an example of how good of a coach Tressel is and how good of a staff we have when, given the circumstances of the '03 and '04 recruiting classes, he still led us to 2 national title games.

[BB73]

For a further breakdown of this topic:

BP..Recruiting-Class-2003-Revisited

BP.Recruiting-Class-2004-Rrevisited

Although posted by the BRRT, the vast majority of the credit should go to LordJeffBuck.

[DaddyBigBucks]

Originally Posted by BB73

For a further breakdown of this topic:

BP..Recruiting-Class-2003-Revisited

BP.Recruiting-Class-2004-Rrevisited

Although posted by the BRRT, the vast majority of the credit should go to LordJeffBuck.

Although I was only prevented from repping the post at the start of the thread because I had recently repped its author; it is fair to observe that LJB has made versions of this argument in the past.

[Buckeye86]

Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks

Although I was only prevented from repping the post at the start of the thread because I had recently repped its author; it is fair to observe that LJB has made versions of this argument in the past.

Yeah, those posts definitely go more in depth than I did, I probably should have just linked his posts to support my thesis. If anything, I would hope that those two post just support my conclusion though.

[the second link says I don't have access to view it by the way, is it locked away in moderator land?]

[jimotis4heisman]

Originally Posted by Buckeye86

I pulled this from the Big Ten discussion thread, but I figured I put enough work into this that it warranted it's own thread.



This arguement (made many times by various fans of other schools) has always tempted me to go back and look at the recruiting classes and analyze what exactly happened.

My hypothesis is that several years of recruiting classes not panning out (in particular the '03 class) really hurt Ohio State's depth, so while we had top end talent to dominate the Big Ten, there wasn't much behind it which became obvious when we played teams with equal top end talent and depth to boot. I am certain that this is the case, but I have never taken the time to actually break it down, so now I will.

disclaimer: my categories are super hazy and I am having a hard time putting people into the did not contribute categories who were injuried, but I don't really want to debate why people did or did not contribute, I just want to look at how many people in each class made solid contributions to the program, also, I am not going to count special teams contributions, I love guys like Shaun Lane to death for being true Buckeyes through and through, but you don't recruit people to come to Ohio State to play special teams


2002 Class (24)

Stars (5): Bobby Carpenter, A.J. Hawk, Santonio Holmes, Nick Mangold, Troy Smith

Solid Contributors(7): Doug Datish, TJ Downing, Quinn Pitcock, Nate Salley, Rob Sims, Tyler Everett, Brandon Mitchell

Contributors that didn't quite pan out (7): Roy Hall 3 year nfl vet. he had some injury problems and didnt quite fit the system., Mike Kudla made all b10 no?, Joel Penton, Jay Richardson 3 years in nfl, also had knee injuries., Tim Schafer, Stan White, Justin Zwick

Little or No Contributions (4): R.J. Coleman, Mike D'Andrea, Michael Roberts, E.J. Underwood

No Category (1): Clarett

I think it's pretty clear that the 2002 class carried the team for as long as they were on campus. What comes after is where the trouble starts.

2003 Class (15)

Stars (1): Anthony Gonzales

Solid Contributors (5): Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, Kirk Barton, Todd Boeckman, David Patterson

Little or No Contributions (9): Sian Cotton, Marcel Frost, Ira Guilford, Dareus Hiley, Louis Irizarry, Devin Jordan, Curt Lukens, Brandon Maupin, Reggie Smith

I think that the 2003 class really hurt us bad, in 2006 and 2007 this class would have been Juniors and Seniors. The amount of non contributors in this class clearly hurt our depth and experience when in came time to play in big games after the '02 class was gone.

2004 Class (24)

Stars (1): Ted Ginn

Solid Contributors (6): Marcus Freeman, Vernon Gholston, Rory Nicol, Antonio Pittman, Steve Rehring, A.J. Trapasso

Contributors that didn't quite pan out (5): Dionte Johnson started a bunch of games, hes the fullback, underrated, imo., Ben Person, Brandon Smith, Curtis Terry injured all the time., Nader Abdallahstarter.

Little or No Contributions (12): Alex Barrow, Albert Dukes, Eric Haw, Chad Hoobler, Dennis Kenedy, Shaun Lanespecial teams star., Devon Lyons, Kyle Mitchum, Nick Patterson, Jon Skinner, Brandon Underwood, Sirjo Welch
look at the number of Xs youd put in this list for transfers, non players, non contributors at all.

Another class that had an abnormally large number of non contributors.


2005 Class (18)

Stars (2): Malcolm Jenkins, James Laurinaitis

Solid Contributors (8): Alex Boone, Jim Cordle, Brian Hartline, Todd Denlinger, Brian Robiskie, Lawrence Wilson, Doug Worthington, Donald Washington

Contributors that didn't quite pan out (2): Jamario O'Neal, Maurice Wells

Little or No Contributions (3): Freddie Lennix, Rob Schoenhoft, Ryan Williams

Give them one more year (3): Austin Spitler, Andre Amos, Anderson Russel

In '05 we finally came out of our slump and started having more contributors than non contributors again, and it was this class that formed the core group that took us to four Big Ten championships but a 1-3 bowl record.

It is too early to judge a lot of the players in the classes beyond 2005, but I think it is pretty clear that you don't have to look much further than the 2003 and 2004 recruiting classes to understand Ohio State's troubles in big games recently. I would also say that the arguement that we bring in top ten talent every year is also shot down by an analysis of the 2003 and 2004 classes.

Luckily, we are breaking out of the void that the '03 and '04 classes left on our depth chart and things are only going to get better. And by the way, only at a place like Ohio State can you say that things are only going to get better after going 33-6 in the past three season. It's great to be a Buckeye!

interesting breakdown

[BB73]

Originally Posted by Buckeye86

Yeah, those posts definitely go more in depth than I did, I probably should have just linked his posts to support my thesis. If anything, I would hope that those two post just support my conclusion though.

[the second link says I don't have access to view it by the way, is it locked away in moderator land?]

Yes it is - sorry I didn't notice that. I'm sure the BPRT will publish that sometime this year.

[tsteele316]

Originally Posted by Buckeye86

That is not at all what I was trying to do. The point of quoting the flaming skunkbear was to show what had inspired me to dig a little deeper into the topic.



and they are especially hard to win when you have back to back recruiting classes where over half of the recruits never contribute significant minutes to the program and should be juniors and seniors in the prime of their careers during the National Championship games. In particular when you have only six men in the trenches who even earn a letter in two recruiting classes combined it is difficult to win championship.

That is the point of this analysis.

maybe it's the homerism in me, but i've contended for some time that osu has had a bit of bad luck in terms of recruiting, especially pre 2008.

in '03 osu was coming off of a great '02 class, and making a NC run. they had some decent recruits in a small class, and were waiting on several big names that were deciding late. they got burned by mcglover, michael bush, burgess, and his trusty sidekick bird-legs crable.

the result IMO was offering more kids earlier in the '04 campaign that may not have gotten osu offers under different conditions. i won't name them out of respect, but there were some commits in that class that maybe shouldn't have been at osu.

then, of course, came the clarett fiasco which made it tough on the '05 and '06 classes. you had a smallish class in '07 without being a great year for talent in-state. we all know the results of the '08 and '09 recruiting efforts.

[Steve19]

I think we are doing fine now in recruiting. Tressel is a master recruiter but it was very difficult to row upstream against such a media onslaught.

Let us also not forget about the Big Ten. Two factors come to mind. First, the league has been in a down cycle in football. When Appalachian State gets the skunkbears at home and then we and they choke big time in bowls, it hurts.

There was no choke last year against Texas and I suspect the guys will not disappoint against USC this year or in their bowl. We need ourselves and the Big Ten to get the job done to turn this around.

The Big Ten Network plays its role in all of this too. It is a declaration of war against the networks and they are going to do just about anything they can to drive down the Big Ten's reputation, so that it adds to their more profitable leagues, by subtraction. They will magnify any shortcoming.

Take the treatment of the Big East this year. Slow, plodding Big Ten MSU didn't have a chance against any top eight team in the Big East.

When MSU stomps Louisville, well, gosh, this couldn't really be MSU. When they stomp UConn, well, gosh, this couldn't really be MSU. When they get embarrassed by UNC in the national championship, well, gosh, there you are, another Big Ten team choking in the national championship game.

How the hell were they choking when they played their way into it beating #1 seeds and weren't expected to win anyway? That, my friends, is just media bias, and if you think it isn't intentional (not personal, it's business), then we disagree.

The lesson? Get it done in football and this goes away.

[Taosman]

Expectations have been so lowered the next big opportunity there could be a surprise to the haters. The conference may be down, but it's not down tremendously(as evidenced by teams like Wiscy and State Penn, and even a mediocre scUM, winning against the mighty SEC).
Is anyone talking about mighty Alabama losing (badly) in it's Bowl game?
The Big Ten did pretty well in it's basketball season. Winning the NIT and playing for the National Championship.
And there is a nice influx of young, aggressive coaches in football.
It's all about a media perception. That won't instantly change.
Perception, perception, perception.

[DaddyBigBucks]

There has been a great deal of discussion about the big game troubles lately. All of the talk inspired me to go back and look at our opponents' records over the past 4 years.

The results were what you'd expect. The Buckeyes beat one team that finished with 2 losses in that span ('06 TSUN) and two teams that finished with 3 losses ('05 ND and '06 Texas). In all seven games where the other team finished with fewer than 3 losses, the Buckeyes came up short.

What I didn't expect though is how those big game opponents fared in their following games. And it wasn't just the big game opponents... It turns out, the week after playing the Buckeyes, winning percentage goes down across the board.

Teams that the Buckeyes beat over the past 4 years won 54.1% of the rest of their games. But the week after playing Ohio State, they won only 47.6% of their games (as opposed to winning 59% of their games the week before playing the Buckeyes).

This trend pales however when compared to the teams to whom Ohio State lost. Teams that beat the Buckeyes between 2005-2008 won 87.6% of their other games. But those who had a game after their tilt with the Scarlet and Grey (all but the Bowl opponents), won only 40% of their games that immediately followed the big win over the Buckeyes.

To put it another way, of the 5 teams that beat Ohio State during the regular season over the last 4 years, 3 of those teams lost their next game, and in all 3 cases it was that team's only regular season loss of the year. The only teams to win the game after beating the Buckeyes were the '05 Longhorns (played Rice and had VY) and the '07 Illini (played Northwestern).

It certainly appears that the teams that beat the Buckeyes in these big games were so emotionally high that they crashed the following week. None of the losses following a win over the Buckeyes was to a team that went to a BCS bowl that year.

Curiously though, not one of these teams was caught looking ahead to the game with the Buckeyes. Teams that beat Ohio State were 8-0 in the previous game ('05-'08).

Conversely, when the opponent won both the game before and the game after their tilt with the Buckeyes, they were almost always thoroughly pounded. Since 2005, only 15 times has a team won the game before playing Ohio State and the game after. Ohio State has won 13 of those games, with the closest of them being the 17 point victory over the '06 Longhorns, which was by far Texas' biggest loss of the season. All other victories were by 20 points or more. The only losses were to the '05 'Horns and the '07 Illini; and that loss to the Illini is probably attributable to it being the week before The Game.

Conclusion: It appears then that when a team plays out of their minds and gives the Buckeyes everything, they more often then not collapse in their next game (if they have to play one). Teams that show no sign of looking ahead to their game with Ohio State and then get pounded have always rebounded the following week.

One other note: at no time in the past 4 years did Ohio State lose to a team that had lost their previous game. The Buckeyes themselves have not lost consecutive games since 2004.

[kolOhioState88]

i wouldnt say abdallah and johnson were non factors

[cbrian815]

Originally Posted by DaddyBigBucks

There has been a great deal of discussion about the big game troubles lately. All of the talk inspired me to go back and look at our opponents' records over the past 4 years.

The results were what you'd expect. The Buckeyes beat one team that finished with 2 losses in that span ('06 TSUN) and two teams that finished with 3 losses ('05 ND and '06 Texas). In all seven games where the other team finished with fewer than 3 losses, the Buckeyes came up short.

What I didn't expect though is how those big game opponents fared in their following games. And it wasn't just the big game opponents... It turns out, the week after playing the Buckeyes, winning percentage goes down across the board.

Teams that the Buckeyes beat over the past 4 years won 54.1% of the rest of their games. But the week after playing Ohio State, they won only 47.6% of their games (as opposed to winning 59% of their games the week before playing the Buckeyes).

This trend pales however when compared to the teams to whom Ohio State lost. Teams that beat the Buckeyes between 2005-2008 won 87.6% of their other games. But those who had a game after their tilt with the Scarlet and Grey (all but the Bowl opponents), won only 40% of their games that immediately followed the big win over the Buckeyes.

To put it another way, of the 5 teams that beat Ohio State during the regular season over the last 4 years, 3 of those teams lost their next game, and in all 3 cases it was that team's only regular season loss of the year. The only teams to win the game after beating the Buckeyes were the '05 Longhorns (played Rice and had VY) and the '07 Illini (played Northwestern).

It certainly appears that the teams that beat the Buckeyes in these big games were so emotionally high that they crashed the following week. None of the losses following a win over the Buckeyes was to a team that went to a BCS bowl that year.

Curiously though, not one of these teams was caught looking ahead to the game with the Buckeyes. Teams that beat Ohio State were 8-0 in the previous game ('05-'08).

Conversely, when the opponent won both the game before and the game after their tilt with the Buckeyes, they were almost always thoroughly pounded. Since 2005, only 15 times has a team won the game before playing Ohio State and the game after. Ohio State has won 13 of those games, with the closest of them being the 17 point victory over the '06 Longhorns, which was by far Texas' biggest loss of the season. All other victories were by 20 points or more. The only losses were to the '05 'Horns and the '07 Illini; and that loss to the Illini is probably attributable to it being the week before The Game.

Conclusion: It appears then that when a team plays out of their minds and gives the Buckeyes everything, they more often then not collapse in their next game (if they have to play one). Teams that show no sign of looking ahead to their game with Ohio State and then get pounded have always rebounded the following week.

One other note: at no time in the past 4 years did Ohio State lose to a team that had lost their previous game. The Buckeyes themselves have not lost consecutive games since 2004.

Great stuff. Ohio State will always be considered a big win for other teams. We are the marked team in the big10 and around the country. Teams have to have a certain mindset and a bit of a swagger to keep winning when you are the big dog. I really believe TS had that attitude. Go Bucks

[martinss01]

there is one thing you miss when you only look at the recruiting classes that i feel is vitally important. the utilization of redshirts to fit classes together and how quickly players develop/are ready to see the field. take a quick look at a few names from our 02 recruiting class:

Bobby Carpenter, A.J. Hawk, Santonio Holmes, Nick Mangold, Troy Smith, Doug Datish, TJ Downing, Quinn Pitcock, Nate Salley, Rob Sims, Tyler Everett, Brandon Mitchell, Roy Hall, Mike Kudla, Joel Penton, Jay Richardson, Tim Schafer, Stan White.

now take a quick look at a few names from 03:

Donte Whitner, Ashton Youboty, Kirk Barton, David Patterson

now take a long hard look at our starting lineup for the 06 nc game...

i realize a few of these guys declared a year early. but lets just assume for a minute that they didn't. just for the sake of argument imagine troy smith looking over at his three starting wr's ginn, gonzo, and holmes. pittman and beanie of course would still be sharing time in the backfield. theoretically our oline might have been filled with names like datish, downing, mangold, barton and sims.

the defense that was so gimpy we played zone no matter how much it got taken advantage of? jenkins plays in dime packages only if youboty and everett are still in the lineup. safety which was kept in place largely with duck tape looks a "tad" more solid with a couple of guys named nate salley and donte whitner. a pair of nobodies named hawk and carp might have found a way to earn starting positions at linebacker.

not saying the coaching staff made any mistakes in development or utilization of redshirts. what im saying is if your looking to win a nc, it is absolutely vital that your talent peaks at the same time. for tOSU that simply didn't happen. our d peaked in 05. unfortunately our o didn't turn in a full season until 06. thats where all our "big game" struggles began. simply because we didn't line up 2 recruting classes properly. a mistake that i doubt many would have argued with without the benefit of hindsight. that my friends is the difference between being viewed as the best team of the decade and being an overrated team who chokes against anyone with a pulse...

before i get the replies. i hate the shoulda woulda coulda arguments as much as anyone. but in this specific case i think it is a valid point as it shows just how difficult it is to match the talent required and how thin the line is between winning it all and being embarrassed.

[NateG]

My response to DaddyBigBucks is that the majority games you are talking about (reg season games) aren't what created the overrated/ bad perception talk about Ohio State. 3 Games in particular cause the damage and all the were a mix of bad luck, bad timing, and false perception prior to the games.
I do not remember hearing bashes for UT 05', PSU 05' and 08' plus Ill 07' was a joke. The fact that Jim Delany allowed that official crew to ref the game between the Big Ten's top team and a team that fits the Main Refs hometown after the issues they had the week before was laughable at best. I hate the "well if we would have gotten this call" talk but there were many instances where calls were blatantly missed and the officials were punished for it. So I psuedo-throw out that game.

I know most here understand this,
But back to the 3 most painful losses perception-wise (in order of damage caused to OSU):

1. Florida MNC 07'- Ohio State was the (02-03)Miami of 06-07. Michigan was the only viable option for a 1 vs 2 the whole year. Leading into the Michigan game the Media began their "Greatest Game of all time and that the winner WAS the National Champ" per their perception. Granted All the players gave EVERYTHING they had to win that game. When Ohio State won the media declared them the rightful owners to the title, TS got the most prestigious award, Boone and the line and I'm sure others celebrated as such while Florida could sit unsuspecting and hope that the media was done with Michigan. They were and the trap was set. Urban played that card to the fullest and his team ate it up. Even on the sideline after the kick return. That's the bad timing part. Bad luck entered when Roy Hall fell on TG's ankle throwing half of the play book and probably the remaining 1/2 of the teams functional brain out of the window. TIME FOR THE SHELL SHOCK OF A LIFE TIME. Unfortunately not even the coaches could rally anything of worth outside of one drive lead by Antonio Pittman.

2- USC 08'- With the talent coming back on both teams and the exalted nature of this game it was talked about right after the MNC was over. That was the game OSU HAD TO WIN. Again Bad luck entered with Youngstown St. Add to the loss of Wells the QB issues and division that grew the second Beanie went down. Issues that fully didn't seem to dissapate until the MSU game. Now add the West coast factor and having another ultra hungry team licking its chops knowing that really half OSU's playbook was gone. An unproven RB and a happy-footed QB were coming, All we have to do is pressure the way Flor did and we win. Just another time bomb for the media to chew up. 35-3 is not debatable.

3- LSU 08'- OSU did not deserve to be in this game. The fact that somewhere in the range of 15-20 top 10 teams lost in the last 3-4 weeks was completely unheard of. OSU ate up a weak schedule leading to ILL of 07' and that should have been it. The losses came and it was fun, but the second they voted OSU in vs LSU the media was estatic. This being the first "Ohio State come let us eat you up at OUR place game". They were more talented, deeper, and knew that it was their trophy to lose. Bad luck awaited us either way though, if OSU missed the MNC OSU would take ILL spot and possibly get drummed in So Cal anyway... we never will know. Just a bad situation that continued the stir of "keep OSU out of here".

Having those players leave, though talented will only help the mindset of this years team. Even Tressell said "after the fiesta bowl(09), you didn't have that bad taste in your mouth of not giving your very best" The players on this years team know not to ever give up(down 17-6 going into the fourth) and that they can play with anyone. TP is going to be a culture change this year, you could see it in games last year. Sept 12th may be the biggest game in recent OSU history as towards the strength of the Big 10 and OSU. (right now the 03' title and 1 vs 2 OSU-MICH rank there for me). Plus maybe it's time for some good luck to go OSU's way.

[DaddyBigBucks]

Originally Posted by NateG

My response to DaddyBigBucks ...

Interesting that you think my post solicits a "response". My post was an observation of a statistical trend, nothing more.

To put the main gist of my post another way: In the last 4 regular seasons we've played 3 teams that have lost 1 regular season game, and every one of those teams suffered that loss the week after playing the Buckeyes.

To me, that is fascinating. To me, that has nothing whatever to do with the discussion that was moved to the Reference Locker.

By the way, that discussion was moved to the Reference Locker for a reason and it should remain there, or be moved to the Holding Cell. Both your post and this one should probably be moved to that thread.