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Old 09-18-2009, 12:06 PM
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Big Wins!

As I mentioned yesterday when evaluating "big name" coaches and their losses, there is "win-side" data which should also be taken in to consideration when contemplating the replacement of Jim Tressel as head coach at Ohio State which some frustrated fans have been calling for. But, not just any win. The problem these fans have with Tressel, again, is failure to win the "big game" and not a failure to win against teams the Buckeyes should beat. That is to say, as demonstrated in yesterday's analysis, the Buckeyes defeat those teams they should beat nearly 100% of the time - the losses to Illinois 2007 and probably 2004 Northwestern being the only occasions it has occurred since 2002. True, Ohio State fans feel like the Buckeyes should never lose, but in fairness to reality, sometimes the Buckeyes aren't the better team on the field on some particular Saturdays, or are at least pretty close to the talent on the other team, ie Texas 2005.

In any case, the following evaluates the "big game" records of three coaches; Coach Tressel, Coach Carroll, and Coach Meyer. Other Championship winning coaches from yesterday's posts have not been considered for several reasons, some owing to my time to research the issue and some owing to the relevance of doing so, since the hire of Les Miles or Mack Brown, for example, seems remote at best.

The "loss side" data can be found Here. As you will read, "Win" is a lot easier for this author to spell than was the word "lose."

What is a "Big Game?"

 A "big game" for purposes of this analysis are any game which was played against a team which was in the top 10 of the AP ranking the week played, or is a rivalry game regardless of the rival's record or rank at the time. The Data set of games was from the beginning of 2002 - September 12, 2009. In choosing the "big game" line, there are some games which, while quite big, did not make the cut, for example Ohio State v. Penn State 2005 (Penn State was rated 16 at the time). There are other games which ended up being listed, despite the fact that it was hardly considered a "must see" game even when played - for example - Florida v. Kentucky 2007. But, a line had to be drawn, and I drew it at "top 10."

To be sure, there are other ways to consider what is a big game. For example, when Utah played Texas A&M in 2003 and 2004, it's quite probable that Utes fans considered the games "biggies." None-the-less, those games were not considered here. For what it's worth, Utah split the series with TAMU 1-1 in those seasons. I discarded these games not because there is "less value" in Utah playing against, say California (2003 - a Utah win, 31-24), but because we're considering a replacement coach at Ohio State, not a "mid major" program. In other words, beating Cal is nice when you're at Utah and doing so helps you get recognition as an "up and coming" coach. But, it's not quite as big as #1 Ohio State facing #2 Texas, or #2 USC v. #1 Oklahoma. Part of coaching is dealing with pre-game hype. Cal - Utah didn't have it. Florida - LSU did. Regardless, this is the decision I made in defining the line and have now so disclosed.

Likewise, I had to pick rivals for the coaches considered. For Ohio State it was easy, the rival is Michigan and there is no other. Period.

For USC, there was a decision to make as between UCLA and Notre Dame. I settled on UCLA being the "bigger" rival because UCLA and USC both compete in the same conference (PAC 10), despite the fact that the Notre Dame - USC rivalry, first played in 1926, is 3 years older than USC - UCLA (1929). Of course, choosing between UCLA and ND teams is something of a grab bag anyway as each has fielded some pretty bad teams in recent memory. USC has been significantly better than both for the bulk of the data set considered and while different, I doubt calling ND the chief rival instead of UCLA would result in particularly different information.

Finally, Florida has several games which might be considered "rivalry games" including games against out of conference foe, Florida State, and in conference foes, Georgia and Tennessee. As with USC, the in conference game(s) were considered "more important" than out of conference contests for rivalry purposes. Beyond that, Georgia - Florida was chosen owing to it having the longer history, albeit just 1 year. "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" was first played in 1915, while "The Third Saturday in September" began in 1916. Though not considered, it also weighs in Georgia's favor that the Bulldogs tended to be the more significant foe for Florida than did the Vols in the data set.

Urban Meyer has coached at three schools in the data set, Florida, Utah and Bowling Green State University. In choosing rivals for Utah, I settled on Utah - BYU instead of Utah - Utah State because BYU and Utah are in the same conference (MWC), even though the Utah - Utah State rivalry (The Battle of the Brothers) spans back to 1892, while the Deseret First Duel began in 1922. For what it's worth, Utah State was 3-9 in 2003 and 3-8 in 2004 when Meyer faced them. Bowling Green's rival was also easy to determine, and is Toledo.

That being said, let's have a look at some numbers.
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Old 09-18-2009, 12:50 PM
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Jim Tressel

Using the criteria outlined above, how has Coach Tressel fared in "big games" since 2002?

Date........rk..Team..................Rec...W/L..Score..Type
09-12-2009...3..Southern California..(2-0)...L...15-18..RS
01-05-2009...3..Texas...............(12-1)...L...21-24..Bowl
11-22-2008..NR..Michigan.............(3-9)...W...42-7...Rivalry
10-25-2008...3..Penn State..........(11-2)...L...6-13...RS
09-13-2008...3..Southern California.(12-1)...L...3-35...RS
01-07-2008...2..LSU.................(12-2)...L...24-38..Bowl
11-17-2007..21..Michigan.............(9-4)...W...14-3...Rivalry
01-08-2007...2..Florida.............(13-1)...L...14-41..Bowl
11-18-2006...2..Michigan............(11-2)...W...42-39..Rivalry
09-09-2006...2..Texas...............(10-3)...W...24-7...RS
01-02-2006...5..Notre Dame...........(9-3)...W...34-20..Bowl
11-19-2005..17..Michigan.............(7-5)...W...25-21..Rivalry
09-10-2005...2..Texas...............(13-0)...L...22-25..RS
12-29-2004..NR..Oklahoma State.......(7-5)...W...33-7...Bowl
11-20-2004...7..Michigan.............(9-3)...W...37-21..Rivalry
01-02-2004..13..Kansas State........(11-4)...W...35-28..Bowl
11-22-2003...5..Michigan............(10-3)...L...21-35..Rivalry
10-18-2003...9..Iowa................(10-3)...W...19-10..RS
01-03-2003...1..Miami, Florida......(12-1)...W...31-24..Bowl
11-23-2002..12..Michigan............(10-3)...W...14-9...Rivalry
09-14-2002..10..Washington State....(10-3)...W...25-7...RS

Total big games: 21
Total Record in big games: 13-8 .619
Record in rivalry games (7 games): 6-1 .857
Record in Bowl games (7 games): 4-3 .571
Record in regular season big games (14 games) : 9-5 .642
Record in regular seasons big games, not rivalry (7 games): 3-4 .429
Record in games against NR opponents (2 games): 2-0
Record in games against top 25 opponents (19 games): 11-8 .579
Record in games against top 10 opponent (15 games): 7-8 .467
Record in games against top 5 opponents (12 games): 4-8 .333

Overall final record of all big game opponents: 203-58 .778 (Avg 10.2 - 2.9) (USC's 2009 record of 2-0 was not counted for avg. record purposes as it is doubtful USC win's just 2 games this season. The 2 wins, however, were counted for final record purposes)
Overall final record of rival: 59-29 .670

Average Scores
All Games: Ohio State 23.9 Opponent 20.6
Against Non-Ranked: Ohio State 37.5 Opponent 7
Against Top 25: Ohio State 22.4 Opponent 22
Against Top 10: Ohio State 22.5 Opponent 23.8
Against Top 5: Ohio State 21.4 Opponent 21.8
Against Rival: Ohio State 27.9 Michigan 19.3
In Ohio State Wins: Ohio State 28.8 Opponent 15.6
In Ohio State losses: Ohio State 15.8 Opponent 25.6
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:09 PM
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Pete Carroll

Date........rk..Team..................Rec...W/L..Score..Type
09-12-2009...8..Ohio State...........(1-1)...W...18-15..RS
01-01-2009...8..Penn State..........(11-2)...W...38-24..Bowl
12-06-2008..NR..UCLA.................(4-8)...W...28-7...Rivalry
09-13-2008...8..Ohio State..........(10-3)...W...35-3...RS
01-01-2008..13..Illinois.............(9-4)...W...49-17..Bowl
12-01-2007..NR..UCLA.................(6-7)...W...24-7...Rivalry
11-22-2007...6..Arizona State.......(10-3)...W...44-24..RS
10-27-2007...5..Oregon...............(9-4)...L...17-24..RS
01-01-2007...3..Michigan............(11-2)...W...32-18..Bowl
12-02-2006..NR..UCLA.................(7-6)...L....9-13..Rivalry
11-25-2006...6..Notre Dame..........(10-3)...W...44-24..RS
01-04-2006...2..Texas...............(13-0)...L...38-41..Bowl
12-03-2005..11..UCLA................(10-2)...W...66-19..Rivalry
10-15-2005...9..Notre Dame...........(9-3)...W...34-31..RS
01-04-2005...2..Oklahoma............(12-1)...W...55-19..Bowl
12-04-2004..NR..UCLA.................(6-6)...W...29-24..Rivalry
10-09-2004...7..California..........(10-2)...W...23-17..RS
01-01-2004...4..Michigan............(10-3)...W...28-14..Bowl
11-22-2003..NR..UCLA.................(6-7)...W...47-22..Rivalry
11-01-2003...6..Washington State....(10-3)...W...43-16..RS
08-30-2003...6..Auburn...............(8-5)...W...23-0...RS
01-02-2003...3..Iowa................(11-2)...W...38-17..Bowl
11-30-2002...7..Notre Dame..........(10-3)...W...44-13..RS
11-23-2002..25..UCLA.................(8-5)...W...52-21..Rivalry

Total big games: 24
Total Record in big games: 21-3 .875
Record in rivalry games (7 games): 6-1 .857
Record in Bowl games (7 games): 6-1 .857
Record in regular season big games (18 games) : 16-2 .888
Record in regular seasons big games, not rivalry (9 games): 9-1 .900
Record in games against NR opponents (5 games): 4-1 .800
Record in games against top 25 opponents (19 games): 17-2 .895
Record in games against top 10 opponent (16 games): 14-2 .875
Record in games against top 5 opponents (6 games): 4-2 .667

Overall final record of all big game opponents: 211-85 .713 (Avg 9.1 - 3.7) (Ohio State's 2009 record of 1-1 was not counted for avg. record purposes as it is doubtful Ohio State wins just 1 game this season. The 1 win and 1 loss, however, were counted for final record purposes)
Overall final record of rival: 47-41 .534


Average Scores
All Games: USC 35.8 Opponent 18.0
Against Non-Ranked: USC 27.4 Opponent 14.6
Against Top 25: USC 38.0 Opponent 19.0
Against Top 10: USC 36.1 Opponent 19.1
Against Top 5: USC 24.7 Opponent 19.2
Against Rival: USC 36.4 UCLA 16.1
In USC Wins: USC 37.8 Opponent 16.7
In USC losses: USC 21.3 Opponent 26.0


Info: USC - Washington State 2002 (rated 18 and 17 respectively) not counted, loss USC 27-30.
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Old 09-18-2009, 01:39 PM
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Urban Meyer

Date........rk..Team..................Rec...W/L..Score..Type
01-08-2009...1..Oklahoma............(12-2)...W...24-14..Bowl
12-06-2008...1..Alabama.............(12-1)...W...31-20..Champ
11-01-2008...6..Georgia.............(10-3)...W...49-10..Rivalry
10-11-2008...4..LSU..................(8-5)...W...51-21..RS
01-01-2008..NR..Michigan.............(9-4)...L...35-41..Bowl
10-27-2007..18..Georgia.............(10-2)...L...30-42..Rivalry
10-20-2007...7..Kentucky.............(8-5)...W...45-37..RS
10-06-2007...1..LSU.................(12-2)...L...24-28..RS
01-08-2007...1..Ohio State..........(12-1)...W...41-14..Bowl
12-02-2006...8..Arkansas............(10-4)...W...38-28..Champ
10-28-2006..NR..Georgia..............(9-4)...W...21-14..Rivalry
10-07-2006...9..LSU.................(11-2)...W...23-10..RS
01-02-2006..25..Iowa.................(7-5)...W...31-24..Bowl
10-29-2005...4..Georgia.............(10-3)...W...14-10..Rivalry
10-15-2005..10..LSU.................(11-2)...L...17-21..RS
09-17-2005...5..Tennessee............(5-6)...W...16-7...RS
01-01-2005..19..Pittsburgh...........(8-4)...W...35-7...Bowl
11-20-2004..NR..BYU..................(5-6)...W...52-21..Rivalry
12-31-2003..NR..Southern Mississippi.(9-4)...W...17-0...Bowl
11-22-2003..NR..BYU..................(4-8)...W...3-0....Rivalry
11-30-2002..NR..Toledo...............(9-5)...L...24-42..Rivalry

Total big games: 21
Total Record in big games: 16-5 .761
Record in rivalry games (7 games):5-2 .714
Record in Bowl games (7 games): 5-1 .833
Record in regular season big games (13 games) : 9-4 .600
Record in regular seasons big games, not rivalry (6 games): 4-2 .667 (Does not include SEC Championship games where Meyer is 2-0 1.000)
Record in games against NR opponents (6 games): 4-2 .667
Record in games against top 25 opponents (15 games): 12-3 .800
Record in games against top 10 opponent (12 games): 10-2 .833
Record in games against top 5 opponents (6 games): 6-1 .857

Overall final record of all big game opponents: 191-78 .710 (Avg 9.1 - 3.7)
Overall final record of rival: 57-31 .647

Average Scores
All Games: Florida/Utah/BGSU 29.6 Opponent 19.6
Against Non-Ranked: Florida/Utah/BGSU 25.3 Opponent 19.7
Against Top 25: Florida/Utah/BGSU 31.3 Opponent 18.3
Against Top 10: Florida/Utah/BGSU 29.7 Opponent 18.3
Against Top 5: Florida/Utah/BGSU 33.5 Opponent 19.0
Against Rival: Florida/Utah/BGSU 27.6 Opponent 19.9
In Meyer Wins: Florida/Utah/BGSU 30.7 Opponent 19.8
In Meyer losses: Florida/Utah/BGSU 26 Opponent 34.8
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Old 09-18-2009, 04:24 PM
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Observations

There's a great deal of information available for us here. I've taken care to make sure my numbers are right, but I must confess to having some struggles doing so over the course of drafting these posts. If I missed a game, or miscalculated a statistic, I apologize.

Regardless, there are some things that seem clear. First, owing to recent failures, Tressel does indeed compare unfavorably to both Meyer and Carroll in their records in "big games." As I suspected yesterday, there is little question that Pete Carroll brings his A game in big games. In this respect, I was surprised to see that Carroll has more big games on his resume than either Meyer or Tressel. However, some of that could be the result of UCLA counting as a big game on the criteria chosen. Likewise, Meyer's stats get a 2 game bump by the inclusion of the SEC Championship game, but that "bump" doesn't sit funny with me considering that there are other Florida "rivalries" which we not considered.

It is notable that Tressel's record would be on par with both Meyer and Carroll if the last 6 of 8 big games had not occurred, or if the result was different. That is to say, of course, Tressel has had a tough run recently, but before that had lost only 2 big games (2005 Texas and 2003 Michigan) prior the the 2006 BCS Championship game loss to Florida. In those games, again - prior to the 2006 BCS Championship game - Tressel's won loss record was 11-2 .846. Can we forgive Tressel his 2-6 record in his last 8 if we realize he beat Michigan twice? maybe. How about if we also consider of the 6 losses, Ohio State was not favored in any of them except the Florida game? Probably not, right? None-the-less, in as much as the Buckeyes were dogs in those contests, Ohio State fans surely had to be prepared for the possibility that the Buckeyes might lose any of them. Unfortunately, they lost them all, even though Penn State 2008, Texas 2008 and USC 2009 were all 1 score games. Facts show, Meyer and Carroll win those games, and Tressel has a recent history of failure in that regard. Such a criticism, then, seems "fair."

It's interesting to note that Tressel has played far more games than either Meyer or Carroll against Top 5 competition. Tressel's 12 games against the truly elite doubles Carroll's 6 efforts and is 5 games more than Meyer. Still, 4-8 in those games is little solace considering Carroll's 4-2 and Meyer's 6-1. Even more impressive for Meyer is that he has only lost 1 game to a team rated #1 (LSU 2007) while winning 3 others (Oklahoma 2008, Alabama 2008, Ohio State 2006). Carroll has not defeated a team rated #1 (probably because that's where his team is so much of the time), while Tressel did so in 2002 (Miami, Florida).

Both Meyer and Carroll are sporting much loftier Bowl records than Tressel, as each has only 1 loss, while Tressel is 4-3, while in regular season big games Meyer and Tressel are close in terms of success even considering the recent past. However, much of that success is Tressel's dominance over Michigan. If you don't count those contests, Tressel is just 3-4 in Regular season big games, while Meyer is 4-2. Carroll's demolition of UCLA included or excluded still leads the way, however as he's 16-2 counting UCLA and 9-1 not counting them.

Ohio State fans like to think there is no other rivalry close to Ohio State - Michigan, and this author would of course agree. It is interesting to note that Michigan's overall record has been 59-29 .670 (even including last season's dreadful 3-9) while UCLA has barely been above .500, at 47-41. Meyer's rivals (he's had 3) tend to be closer to Michigan than does UCLA, but it's fair to say Ohio State has performed the best against rivals, and did so against the most competent of the rivals considered. While all coaches sport at least one rivalry loss, Tressel's came to a top 5 Michigan team (2003), Carroll's to an unrated UCLA (2006) and Meyer's to an 18th ranked Georgia (2007) and an unranked Toledo (while at BGSU in 2002). In that respect, then, it's sensible that fans that take a rivalry as seriously as Buckeye fans do are still more than pleased with the results Tressel has provided. In as much as both Meyer and Carroll have indicia of "let downs" against rivals - might suggest that neither is "the right man" for the Ohio State job.

The average scores against a rival supports those last comments. In all big games, USC scores 35.8 points a game while giving up just 18. Meyer's teams, a picture of consistency, tend to a score of 29.6 to 19.6 per "big game" Tressel, as should come as no surprise scores only 23.9 while giving up 20.6. However, in rivalry games, Ohio State scores 4 points more, and gives up more than a point less - 27.9 - 19.3, while USC beats up UCLA pretty much the same way it beats everyone else 36.4 - 16.1, while Meyer's teams score 2 points less 27.6, while yielding virtually the same 19.6 they otherwise give up in big games, or 19.9 specifically. The short of it is, then, Jim Tressel saves a little something for Michigan, though in fairness, that scoring is skewed a bit by last year's 42-7 thrashing. But, then, USC has had similar demolitions of UCLA, and Meyer the same with Georgia.

As was suggested in yesterday's loss-side analysis, both Carroll and Meyer tend to play down towards their competition, particularly where the unrated teams are concerned, while Tressel beats them badly. In games against unranked opponents who happen to be big game opponents (ie bowls and poorly performing rivals), Tressel wins by a score of 37.5 - 7, while Carroll scores more than a TD less, 27.4, than average and Meyer some 4 points less than avergae (25.3 compared to 29.6). An average big game opponent will score 20.6 on Ohio State, but unranked opponents managed, again, 7. Carroll's teams are better defensively than average, but USC has a loss to a non ranked team, while Tressel does not. Meyer's clubs always seem to give just about 19 points, regardless of the situation.

But, that said, Ohio State seems to turn it down a notch when playing top 25 teams, top 10 teams and top 5 teams scoring less than average in each category, though only 2 points less at its wost (versus top 10, 21.4). USC, on the other hand, scores 38 against top 25 teams and 36.1 against top 10 teams, though production does fall off against top 5 teams by almost 2 full TDs off the avergae. Meyer's teams seem to get up for any top 25 contest, scoring 31.3 while giving up less than average (18.3 compared to 19.6), are almost perfectly average against top 10 clubs, but really step it up when it's top 5 teams on the other side of the ball, scoring 33.5 per game, while giving up 19. This suggests Meyer's youth, perhaps, having not been "burned" by mistakes born of his more free wheeling philosophy, he is more likely to play a riskier breed of football than either Carroll or Tressel. Will Meyer start to get burned? Hard to say. Probability suggests "yes." It's hard to say Pete Carroll's teams are conservative. But, in point of fact, USC doesn't run anything flashy. No. Instead, they execute perfectly and the scores add up. I think a fair criticism of Tressel's teams is a failure to execute, then.

I was shocked to see Ohio State's defense performs the worst in most of the categories listed. Both Meyer and Carroll seems to give about 19 points to any team their playing, regardless of rank. Carroll's numbers fluctuate more than Meyer's, but all tend towards the 19 point mark. Still, when Ohio State loses, they give up just 25.6 (scoring a dreadful 15.8) while USC gives up 26 and Florida 34.8! It's a tad ironic that Tressel has the "get's blown out in big games" reputation considering it is Meyer's teams who give up nearly 5 TDs in losses. Of course, Meyer's teams also score 26 points per loss, and thus those losses may seem more "respectable."

On a side note, it's hard to swallow that Ohio State held USC to 18 points, a FG below their average score when they lose, but only managed 15 points - which is exactly what they score in their losses. This suggests exactly what we saw on September 12, 2009 - a Defense doing everything it could to win the game, while the Offense struggled to take advantage of opportunities or fail to execute.

So - do these big game results tend your views towards either Carroll or Meyer over Tressel?

Again, there is little question Carroll brings his teams ready to play on the big stage, but we cannot forget that despite all that big game success, he has just as many Crystal footballs as Tressel and has lost more than a handful of games to teams which were significantly inferior. I'm sure Buckeye fans would truly enjoy winning the big one - Buckeye fans in particular, considering Ohio State's past of "close calls" and "coulda shoulda woulda" seasons like 1998, 1996, 1995, 1993, 1979, 1969-1975. But, one has to wonder, would Ohio State have been in position to even lose those "big games" with Carrol coaching Ohio State and dropping the occasional game to a 41 point dog? It's hard to say, and we each have to answer this for ourselves. I do know that even Woody Hayes had his detractors, and he won more National Championships than Tressel and Carroll combined.

With Meyer, you get youth and consistency as the numbers attest. He's flashier and takes more risk, but he also "gets it done" in the big ones as his two Crystal Footballs attest. But, one wonders also - will he fall? Neither Carroll nor Tressel are flashy, really, when it comes to Xs and Os - USC just executes to perfection which gives the illusion of flashiness. Consider when Ohio State executes perfectly, you get 42-7 scores too. Meyer's offensive philosophy is much more free-wheeling, though also very successful thus far. But, when Meyer's teams wiff, they wiff badly. In an average big game, again, Meyer's teams give up just 19.6 - when they lose, they give up 34.8. Carroll's teams will give up 8 more points than average in losses, while Tressel's teams are still in relatively good position to win, the defense yielding just 5 more. In a nut shell - when Ohio State loses - it's because the offense gets stuffed. When USC loses it's because their offense gets stuffed (to the tune of 2 TDs off average) and they give up an extra score. When Meyer's teams lose, it's because the defense gets absolutley shredded. Is that Ohio State football?

You decide.
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Old 09-18-2009, 04:44 PM
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I think you have done a very good job of summarizing the case for and against Jim Tressel. Thanks for these great posts.

As people begin to consider the Tressel years, I find myself wondering what might have been if we had not had the whole ESPiN/Clarett affair. Although Buckeye fans put a brave face on it, that whole thing really stopped Tressel's recruiting momentum and we lost some good recruits.

That loss of momentum is a story hidden in these numbers.
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Old 09-18-2009, 05:36 PM
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Thanks again, great info!!

Interesting that in the info you give that Tress faced 10 teams ranked in the top 3. PC faced only 4 teams ranked in the top 3. And Meyer also faced only 4 teams ranked in the top 3 (actually playing against four #1 ranked teams and winning 3 times.)

Meaning that the competition level that Tress has faced, on a consistent basis, has been both more and higher than either Carrol or Meyer. Also, when playing against those 10 top 3 teams, I believe that we were ranked behind 5 of them at the time we played.

Last edited by scarletngray; 09-18-2009 at 08:58 PM.
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