Program Expectations, A Ten Year Analysis

[OilerBuck]

A lot of the coaching changes and disgruntled fans around college football have left me thinking about expectations for the programs. Do schools like Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stanford, Etc. really think they should be dramatically better than they have been the last few years?



To be able to accurately analyze a programs realistic expectations, you need to take a lot of factors into consideration:

1. Recruiting Base - Schools with a better local recruiting base have huge advantages because the kids in your local area will always see you on TV, be familiar with the program and are often fans. If you have to rely too much on national recruiting and the perception of kids in another state, a few off years for the program can start a downward spiral.

2. Facilities - Schools with the best facilities attract top-flite kids because they can help with training, exposure and show that a school is devoted to the program.

3. Alumni/Boosters/Fans - Schools with more money and with a supportive alumni base have more financial stability and are able to provide the program with great resources. Great fans pack the stadium and can make an official visit impressive, even in an "off" year (see M*chigan game this year).

4. Tradition - Schools who have succeeded in the past, expect future success and are an easier sell to high school kids. Past results breed future expectations, but it is my belief that ONLY recent tradition has an impact on recruiting.

5. Coaching staff/Administrative Stability - A stable coaching staff with talent and experience together automatically makes a program more consistent and increases expectations. The same goes for the Athletic Dept. and University president, etc. Whenever the University goes through transitions, it filters down to every department and program.

6. Academic requirements - High expectations in the classroom should always lower expectations on the field because it automatically filters out some (not all) of the high school talent.

I've been considering these factors, and I would like to offer my view of what our REALISTIC program expectations are. I would appreciate other people's view on tOSU or their own favorite program. This should inspire quite a debate on what we SHOULD expect as opposed to what we DO expect.

In any generic 10 year period, The Ohio State University Football Program should be expected to...

1. Go to a bowl game EVERY year.
2. Finish in the top three in the conference 7 times.
3. Win or tie for the conference championship 5 times.
4. Finish in the top five of the polls 3 times.
5. Win one NCAA championship.
6. Beat M*chigan 6-7 times.
7. Win 6-7 Bowl games.
8. Produce 50-70 First Team All-Conference players.
9. Produce 15-20 All Americans.
10. Produce 1-2 Heisman Finalists.
11. Produce 20-30 First round NFL Draft picks.
12. Graduate 50%-60% of the players
13. Maintain a clean image nationally.

I appreciate your thoughts on this issue.

[Sloopy45]

Oil: "1. Go to a bowl game EVERY year."

Yes. Ohio State should go to a Bowl game each and every year, without exception. This one's non-negotiable.

"2. Finish in the top three in the conference 7 times."

Yes, Ohio State should be expected to do this as well. I would even venture to say that this should be expected 8 out of 10 years.

"3. Win or tie for the conference championship 5 times."

No. This is a little unrealistic. For example, in the last ten seasons its very hard to argue Ohio State's success: 97-28 (.776), with 5 Top 10 finishes in the country (6 in '95, 2 in '96, 2 in '98, 1 in '02, & 4 in '03), but only three ties for the Big Ten Title. Winning the conference championship is tricky. You have teams that win it without playing you and other circumstances. You can have a good team and a great season without winning the B10 Title. I don't think this is something that can be EXPECTED, considering last year when we were the highest final ranked B10 team but didn't win the B10 Championship.

"4. Finish in the top five of the polls 3 times."

Yes. This should be expected at Ohio State (see above).

"5. Win one NCAA championship."

Yes and no. National Champiuonships are very elusive. You can take the cream of the crop in CFB, take them one by one, and see that winning the National Championship is very elusive:

Florida: One Championsip (1996) all-time, and it wasn't an undefeated season.
Nebraska: Before their recent dominance in the 90's, they were on a 20+ year NC drought.
Oklahoma: Were on a long drought before Stoops won it in 2000.
Florida State: 2 National Titles in 15 years, but only one undefeated season.
USC: Were working on a 20+ year drought before winning it last year.
Tennessee: Won it all in '98, but can't remember when the last time was before that.
LSU: Won first National Title in 50+ (FIFTY!) years last season.
scUM: One National Championship in 55+ Seasons.
Notre Dame: One National Championship (1988) in 20 or 30 Seasons.
Penn State: Last National Championship was 15+ seasons ago.

So, as you can see, no matter how great your Program is, its unrealistic to say you should win it every ten years, but you should be in the mix and competing for the National Title most years.

"6. Beat M*chigan 6-7 times."

This shouldn't be EXPECTED, but it should be hoped for. OSU-scUM are .500 against each other in the last 50 years. A minimum expectation should be 5 wins every ten seasons, and everything else is gravy.

"7. Win 6-7 Bowl games."

Unrealistic. Ohio State (in over 100 years of football) is 17-19 (.472) in Bowl Games. Over the last ten seasons, OSU is 5-4. I think a reasonable goal for any big program is 5 wins out of every ten Bowl games.

"8 to 12"

No comment.

"13. Maintain a clean image nationally."

If you're referring to PERCEPTION, then yes, a program should maintain a clean perception across the country. However, this is not at the University's control. All the major programs practice the same "dirty" violations, its only a matter of which of the programs ESPN chooses to barbecue.

[BuckeyeBaiter]

I think you're right on Oiler, particularly with #13. I do believe the state of college athletics will face a decline the likes of which we have never seen in the past. My reasoning is the huge amounts of money coaches now receive. Multi- million dollar contracts coupled with the tens of millions in revenue generated by the universities leaves the players [entertainers] with there hand out. Can't say I blame em either.

[OSU1978]

In any generic 10 year period, The Ohio State University Football Program should be expected to...


1. Go to a bowl game EVERY year. Sounds good
2. Finish in the top three in the conference 7 times. Every year
3. Win or tie for the conference championship 5 times. 4-5
4. Finish in the top five of the polls 3 times. Sounds good
5. Win one NCAA championship. Sounds good
6. Beat M*chigan 6-7 times. 6 would be a reasonable goal
7. Win 6-7 Bowl games. Seven is high
8. Produce 50-70 First Team All-Conference players. Not sure on this one
9. Produce 15-20 All Americans. Sounds good
10. Produce 1-2 Heisman Finalists. Sounds good
11. Produce 20-30 First round NFL Draft picks. Sounds good
12. Graduate 50%-60% of the players. Sounds good
13. Maintain a clean image nationally. Sounds good

[BB73]

1. Go to a bowl game EVERY year.

2. Finish in the top three in the conference 7 times.
3. Win or tie for the conference championship 4 or 5 times.
4. Finish in the top five of the polls 3 or 4 times.
5. Win one NCAA championship.
6. Beat M*chigan 5-7 times.
7. Win 5-6 Bowl games.
8. Produce 40-60 First Team All-Conference players. (Counting multi-year winners each time).
9. Produce 15-20 All Americans.
10. Produce 2-3 Heisman Finalists, and 1 winner.
11. Produce 15-25 First round NFL Draft picks.
12. Graduate 60%-75% of the players.
13. Maintain a clean image nationally.

My modified expectations are in bold. I believe that as a top-6 program of all-time, 1 NC and 1 Heisman winner per decade are reasonable expectations.

[cincibuckeyenut]

If these are the universal expectations, no wonder we hear so much bitching and whining. I would venture to guess that not a single 10 year stretch in OSUs history meets all those expectations. They could be goals, but expectations is completely unreasonable.

Here is my view of reasonable for each.
1. Go to a bowl game EVERY year. OK
2. Finish in the top three in the conference 7 times. OK
3. Win or tie for the conference championship 5 times. 2 is reasonable
4. Finish in the top five of the polls 3 times. 2 is reasonable, although I could live with 3
5. Win one NCAA championship. Any MNC expectation is unreasonable. We hadn't won one in 35 years. That is always the goal, but to win it all should always be a goal, never an expectation. Otherwise you will be disappointed
6. Beat M*chigan 6-7 times. 5 is reasonable
7. Win 6-7 Bowl games. 5 is reasonable
8. Produce 50-70 First Team All-Conference players. 5-7 a year? 20% of all conference are buckeyes? Seems a little high. I would put it at 35-40 if it has to be first team. If it was first or second, I would agree with your number
9. Produce 15-20 All Americans. First team, I assume? If it is first team, I would say 10-15. If it included second team and honorable mention, I would argue for 20-30.
10. Produce 1-2 Heisman Finalists. Given our heisman history, I can live with this.
11. Produce 20-30 First round NFL Draft picks. 2-3 a year? way too high. 2-3 is a great year for any team. I might amend this to say 50 players drafted by NFL or something like that. Average 5 a year drafted? Seems more reasonable.
12. Graduate 50%-60% of the players This seems low as an expectation to me, but I don't have historical numbers to compare.
13. Maintain a clean image nationally. Fair enough.