Who will play in the BCS Championship game?

[Thump]

Originally Posted by jwinslow

If Florida made the title game, they could give OSU a heck of a game.

I would rather see that. Instead of an OSU vs. WVU game. Would like to see how we stand up to the best.

BUT............ OSU has a LOT of work left before we can have that discussion.

[tundra1]

Originally Posted by LordJeffBuck

Right now, only six teams control their own destiny: Ohio State, Michigan, Florida, Southern Cal, West Virginia, and Louisville.

The loser of Ohio State-Michigan is out, and the winnner is in, IF undefeated.

The loser of West Virginia-Louisville is out, and the winner is in, IF undefeated, BUT ONLY IF both Florida and Southern Cal lose. Like it or not, the Big East is still a BCS conference, and an undefeated team from the Big East will (or at least should) make it to the championship game over ANY once-defeated team.

Southern Cal is in IF undefeated, BUT ONLY IF Florida loses.

Florida is in IF undefeated.

LJB--No problem with the analysis. However, the way I look at it, that means that only Florida, OSU, and Michigan control their own destiny, contrary to your first sentence. Everyone else is dependent on an "IF" happening to at least one other team, even if they win out.

[fourteenandoh]

I totally agree tundra. winner of OSU/Mich is in, no doubt. and Fla goes undefeated there is no way they get snubbed for USC. Their schedule is just too damn good.

[NightmaresDad]

Originally Posted by Dryden

My two cents, the best one loss team in the country right now may be Tennessee. It's a tough call between them and Texas, but the Vols resume would look really good if their only loss turns out being by a single point to Florida. Tenn gets LSU at home, but goes to S Carolina (Fullmer v. Spurrier is always good stuff) and to Arkansas. Not easy, but hardly impossible after the offensive display Saturday night between the hedges. Because Tenn lost the head-to-head and Georgia has been exposed, Fla looks like a lock for the SEC CCG as the Easts representative. That might actually help Tennessee, since it would allow them to dodge a very tough game at the end and preserve the #2 ranking in both polls, if they can work up to there.

WVU's sad excuse for a secondary will be exposed by Louisville, USC will probably lose two of their last four games, and Florida will really have to work to stay unbeaten. Texas shouldn't lose another game, and Louisville shouldn't lose a single game all year.

IMHO, the battle for #2 will probably come down to computers and voters juggling one-loss teams Texas and Tennessee to face the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game. Both Texas and Tenn should finish FAR ahead of Louisville (even if undefeated) due to Louisville's weak SOS. Kentucky, Temple, Miami, Kansas St, and M Tenn St were their non-conference opponents -- a combined 9-16 against D1A competition. Sagarin currently has Louisville ranked all the way down at #20 in his BCS rankings. The only two opponents that Louisville will play that are ranked are WVU (Sagarin #29) and Rutgers (Sagarin #28), and their rankings will certainly plummet once Louisville hammers them.

Tennessee and Texas are in the best position, and I'd give Tennessee the nod right now.

I agree with the assessment of the UL / WV game, but I think if everybody else (besides us, of course) has one loss, then TX will definitely be the highest ranked one-loss team.

[BrockSamson]

Obviously every team still has a long road ahead of them - need to keep winning and stay healthy.

It's too early for Longhorn fans to start worrying about. As a 1-loss team, I think we have a good shot because being the defending champion should give us the edge over another 1-loss team. And the more Colt McCoy emerges, and our offense finds an identity the better our odds are.

McCoy still has a ways to go. Less thinking and more reacting = finding the right receiver at the right time. He needs to internalize the stuff he already knows. But I like what I've seen. We still need to get the TEs involved, establish a deep-threat passing game and get an I-form package. I think we can use Shipley more in the I-form than in our base 3WR look, as he'll have less blocking responsibility.

[sandgk]

Originally Posted by BrockSamson

It's too early for Longhorn fans to start worrying about. As a 1-loss team, I think we have a good shot because being the defending champion should give us the edge over another 1-loss team. And the more Colt McCoy emerges, and our offense finds an identity the better our odds are.

Sentence 1 - agreed - anything can happen. Texas may end up as the only one loss team for instance. (Unlikely)
Sentence 2 - sorry, no way, wishful thinking. You are inventing a benefit that isn't there. Being the defending National Champion earns you no brownie points with voters, nor in the computer polls. Worse yet, the latter unforgivingly will include a Strength of Schedule assessment. This will favor Florida (should they end up with one loss) over Texas.
Sentence 3 - This is more wishful thinking, in so far as the NC game is concerned. Though, it is not unreasonable to say that if Texas does not go to the BCS Championship game, they still have a great shot at a BCS game. To which contest you will bring a more experienced and seasoned QB. (But you have to get by Missouri first as it presently stands).

[BuckTwenty]

Great job guys! I love the speculation about the National Championship game already! I hadn't formed my own opinion yet about who I thought we might end up against in the championship game (in the event that we win out). I ended up doing some research, and here are the...

BCS Championship Game Contender Resumes

*Teams in control of their own destinies...*

#1 Ohio State (6-0)
Key Wins: at #2 Texas 24-7, #24 Penn State 28-6, at #13 Iowa 38-17
Key Games Left: at Michigan State (10/14), #4 michigan (11/18)
Upset Alert: Minnesota (10/28) -- I had to put something... Glen Mason will pull out all the stops against OSU

#2 Florida (6-0)
Key Wins: at #13 Tennessee 21-20, Alabama 28-13, #9 LSU 23-10
Key Games Left: at #11 Auburn (10/14), #16 Georgia (10/28), at Florida State (11/25), SEC Championship Game (12/2)
Upset Alert: South Carolina (11/11) -- Steve Spurrier vs Fla. Should be a good one.

#3 USC (5-0)
Key Wins: at Arkansas 50-14, #19 Nebraska 28-10
Key Games Left: #18 Oregon (11/11), #10 California (11/18), #9 Notre Dame (11/25), at UCLA (12/02)
Upset Alert: Arizona State (10/14) -- ASU's two blemishes were against Cal and Oregon. They'll be looking to stop their 2-game losing skid next weekend at USC.

#4 michigan (6-0)
Key Wins: at #2 Notre Dame 47-21, Wisconsin 27-13
Key Games Left: at Penn State (10/14), #15 Iowa (10/21), at #1 Ohio State (11/18)
Upset Alert: at Indiana (11/11) -- Seriously, that's the closest team to upsets them outside of their key games left.

#5 West Virginia (5-0)
Key Wins: ::crickets chirping:: ...Maryland 45-24?
Key Games Left: at #7 Louisville (11/02), at Pittsburgh (11/16), #24 Rutgers (12/02)
Upset Alert: Syracuse (10/14) -- After closer-than-they-look games against East Carolina and Mississippi State, this too may be closer than the media will be predicting it to be...

#7 Louisville (5-0)
Key Wins: #17 Miami 31-7
Key Games Left: #5 West Virginia (11/02), at #24 Rutgers (11/09), at Pittsburgh (11/25)
Upset Alert: at Syracuse (10/21) -- Iowa proved it's hard to play in The Dome.


*Teams that need a little help... (the best of the 1-loss teams thus far)*

#6 Texas (5-1)
Key Wins: at #14 Oklahoma 28-14
Loss: #1 Ohio State 7-24
Key Games Left: at #21 Nebraska (10/21), at Texas Tech (10/28), Big 12 Championship Game (12/02)
Upset Alert: Texas A&M (11/24) -- Texas hate Aggie, Aggie hate Texas. 'Nuf said.

#8 Tennessee (5-1)
Key Wins: #9 California 35-18, at #10 Georgia 51-33
Loss: #7 Florida 20-21
Key Games Left: at South Carolina (10/28), #14 LSU (11/04), at #17 Arkansas (11/11), SEC Championship Game (if Florida losses 2 SEC games-- not likely - 12/02)
Upset Alert: Alabama (10/21) -- The Tide roll in after a bye week for the Vols. Us Buckeyes know what can happen after bye weeks...

#9 Notre Dame (5-1)
Key Wins: at Georgia Tech 14-10, #19 Penn State 41-17
Loss: #11 michigan 21-47
Key Games Left: UCLA (10/21), at #3 USC (11/25
Upset Alert: at Navy (10/28) -- ND's defense doesn't like QB's that run. Meet Navy, who found Nebraska's old option playbook in the trash one day. If the Domers come in to Annapolis with heads as big as their coach...

#10 California (5-1)
Key Wins: #22 Arizona State 49-21, #11 Oregon 45-24
Loss: at #23 Tennessee 18-35
Key Games Left: UCLA (11/04), at #3 USC (11/18)
Upset Alert: Washington (10/21) -- The Fightin' Willinghams already have wins over Fresno State and UCLA, and gave USC a run for their money.

#11 Auburn (5-1)
Key Wins:#6 LSU 7-3, at South Carolina 24-17
Loss: Arkansas 10-27
Key Games Left: #2 Florida (10/14), #16 Georgia (11/11), SEC Championship Game (if Arkansas losses 2 SEC games -- possible - 12/02)
Upset Alert: at Alabama (11/18) -- Traveling to 'Bama for the Iron Bowl and the teams shouldn't disappoint.

#12 Clemson (5-1)
Key Wins: at #9 Florida State 27-20, at Wake Forest 27-17
Loss: at Boston College 33-34
Key Games Left: #13 Georgia Tech (10/21), at #22 Virginia Tech (10/26), South Carolina (11/25), ACC Championship Game (if NC State losses 2 ACC games or losses to Clemson -- very likely - 12/02)
Upset Alert: NC State (11/25) -- May LOOK like a cupcake game the way NCST started the season, but NCST has consecutive wins over #20 Boston College and #17 Florida State on its resume.


Waiting List With Arguments: #13 Georgia Tech (W at VT), #17 Arkansas (W at AUB), #18 Oregon (W vs Okla)

Waiting List Without Arguments (yet): #15 Iowa, #16 Georgia, #19 Missouri, #20 Boise State, #21 Nebraska, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 Rutgers

Note: All games played were with rankings AT THE TIME OF THE GAME and all games to be played are with current rankings (as of October 8th)

----------------------

B-20's Honest Opinion: With all respect to our good friends from Texas, I think Tennessee is the best 1-loss team CURRENTLY, with wins over two top 10 teams. Notre Dame's ONLY shot at the championship game is if they win out, including a CONVINCING with at USC, which I will happily put money on them not pulling off. Watch Clemson. They're in a really dangerous spot to pull the #1 one-loss contender spot from Tenn and Texas.

As for the unbeatens, it's hard to get a good read on WV and Louisville because of the poor competition they have faced thus far in the season. However, due to Louisville doing so well without Bush and Brohm, having beaten a reeling Miami team, AND the game being at their place at night, I think the Cardinals pull the upset. USC has a TOUGH schedule yet to play and should have a loud argument if they win out. I'm also gonna be in the minority and pick that scUM losses one of their two big games pre-Nov 18th (at night at PSU, vs Iowa). If Florida wins out, they'll play us in the championship game. Mark that one down. They've played great thus far and have just as hard of a schedule left to play.

I have predictions about who will be in the title game, but I want to keep reading this thread and see what other people think before I post my thoughts