A list of Heisman hopefuls this far ahead of the curve is pretty damned useless in my view.
For example,
three crystal ball gazing pieces, all from mid-year 2007 provided
lists of the likeliest candidates.
None touted Tebow.
But, don't let that stop anyone from compiling these pieces - they are after all only for fun, let us just consider their predictive value. Two shoeable-in candidates for 2007 were certainly Pat White and Brian Brohm at this point, poor losses relatively early in both team's campaigns sank those candidacies. Booty, Booty, Booty was another clarion call that fell by the wayside (injuries, Stanford, phases of the moon, night clubbing), and then we had Tebow rising to the top despite a late flourish by the true presumptive front-runner one DMC.
So, one lesson is that nominating a Heisman winner 12 months early is little better than a parlor game.
Despite which here are a couple of thoughts on the top 6 presented by Fiutak ...
1 - Tebow. To double up back-to-back Tebow would likely have to replicate his 20+/20+ performance from 2007, have Florida running in full contention for an SEC title and BCS berth and remain healthy all year - plus have no viable contenders from the rest of the field.
This year Tebow was featured by Meyer in the Gator Offense. That is not going to be such a clear cut matter next year. Moody gets the majority of the carries in all likelihood, Harvin will be used more fully and Tebow's rushing production diminishes as a result. While Tebow remains a threat to get two Stiff Arm trophies, it will be his Senior season that is is his best shot.
2 - Pat White - first, who says he is going to be back? OK, presuming he is back then you have to ask the following, if he couldn't wow the voters in this, the year of his best chance, are his prospects improved or diminished by the likely departure of Slaton to the pros? The latter seems more likely. Besides which, there is a sense on my part of some recalibrating of White's merits as "best college football player" following the performance in the losses to USF and Pitt. I suspect that if White returns he garners a mention, but not the kudos he would have received with a flawless campaign this year. (Further, such a flawless campaign is what he would require to really elevate himself in 2008). Bottom line I'm selling presumptive #2 rating for White as a 2008 candidate, I'd place him in the deep six at this time.
3 - Sam Bradford - Oklahoma. How likely does anyone believe it is that a Sophomore will win this thing back-to-back? Nobody raising any hands yet? - Me neither. A voting pool dilution candidate, waiting in the wings for his Junior or Senior year campaign.
4 - Chase Daniel - Actually a good candidate name right now, but will he have the supporting cast around him to provide a similar run? Consider that they lose starters and 2-deep contributors from the WR, TE, RB, OT, OG, and Center positions. Mizzou v.2008 is very different from v.2007 on Offense. This candidate ranking becomes
severely downgraded once the 2008 campaign begins.
5 - Graham Harrell - This one I think of as a very interesting mention, I generally agree with Fiutak's reasoning.
6 - Chris Wells. Put simply Chris could be in the right place, at the right time. The changes on O-line are a little hard to predict beyond Barton -
but with the right quotient of returning supporting cast he can blaze a trail to New York next year. Health is the other biggest question mark for Chris or any other RB in the Big 10, yards while healthy are easier to predict.
Color me unimpressed by Fiutak's list, though in his Defense:
Quote:
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Obviously the landscape quickly changes depending on who comes back and who jumps early to the NFL, but this should be another great race with most of this year's stars certain to return. Of course, it all might be over if No. 5 down in Arkansas decides to pass up tens of millions of dollars for his senior year.
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