Pipeline to the NFL: Schools and States

[vioravis]

A detailed article from USA Today covers the football factories:

Pipeline to the NFL? Big states, schools are key - USATODAY.com

NFL draft history: Finding the talent - USATODAY.com

Ohio produces Buckeyes, pros
Ohio State averaged 8? wins and 4.9 draft picks per year in the 13 seasons before Jim Tressel became head coach in 2001.
Since Tressel took over, the Buckeyes have averaged 10.4 wins and 7.8 draft picks a year. Recruiting is key, and while Tressel says "I don't know if we are doing anything magical," he concedes his staff might devote more time evaluating recruits than some schools.
"We spend a lot of time ranking recruits and watching extra film," Tressel says. "We spend extra time getting to know them, talking to their high school coach, talking to opposing coaches."
Tressel targeted players from Ohio in his first recruiting class because "the 2002 class was just extraordinary."
Nine Buckeyes from that class were drafted in 2006, including five first-round picks, four of whom played high school football in Ohio: linebackers A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter, center Nick Mangold and safety Donte Whitner.
Tressel didn't recruit every Ohio State player that was drafted since 2002, but 70% of Ohio State's draft picks during Tressel's tenure are from Ohio. All eight Buckeyes drafted in 2007 ? Tressel's recruits ? were from the state.
"Our football here is very important culturally," Tressel says. "The coaching is very good. We do a good job recruiting our home state plus the border states and recruiting hotbeds like Florida, Georgia and Texas. We'll go wherever we can to get great players."
While just eight of Ohio State's draft picks under Tressel are from Florida and Texas, 2008 marked the first time one of his recruiting classes is filled with more out-of-state players than in-state ? Florida, Georgia and Texas are represented.

Mods: I am not sure to where to put this in. Please move this to an appropriate place.

[TheIronColonel]

It's interesting, but not terribly informative. The state figures aren't normalized, the number of picks per conference aren't normalized (e.g. the SEC has more teams than any other BCS conference), etc. It does reinforce some popularly held beliefs, though; namely, lots of recruits come from California, Florida, and Texas. Does that mean they represent an abnormally large percentage of recruits? My gut says yes, but the data isn't available in that article.

[HailToMichigan]

Originally Posted by TheIronColonel

It's interesting, but not terribly informative. The state figures aren't normalized, the number of picks per conference aren't normalized (e.g. the SEC has more teams than any other BCS conference), etc.

Agreed. I think it should be obvious that states in closer proximity to college football hotbeds are more heavily recruited, more heavily scouted, and therefore produce more talent. California has 7 D-IA schools, Texas 10, Florida 7, and Ohio 8, so I don't think it's coincidence that these big states are also where the talent comes from. Same for states like Pennsylvania, Virginia....they're populated by a few D-IA schools and surrounded by tons more.

Case in point: New York. It's huge - even without NYC proper it'd be the 6th largest state, ahead of Ohio. But it's barely noticed in football recruiting. Only 3 D-IA schools, only 1 of which is actually serious about it. And it gets beat by tons of states in terms of talent: Michigan, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, all way smaller. Basketball recruiting, though, New York is king. It's a recruiting factory. I respectfully submit that it has something to do with the no less than 21 schools in the state that play D-I basketball, which I believe is the most of any state.

So I just spent two paragraphs stating the obvious. Also there's this: marginal talent in recruiting-heavy states gets picked up by someone, equal talent in the boonies does not. If there's a marginal three-star prospect in Florida (maybe ESPN has him rated 71, 72, say) and Coach Bigshot comes in from State U. to look at someone else, he might notice this three-star guy as he's watching Johnny Superstar. The HS coach might point him out. Coach Bigshot is not gonna make the same trip to New Mexico or Vermont to see that talent, but he would get noticed in Florida. So it's skewed even more toward the hotbeds.