To me, an OOS kid can only be considered a lock to tOSU if he has given either a public or silent verbal. A kid who names
OSU as his leader but doesn't plan to announce soon can not be considered a lock at all. Michael Brewster is a great example. We can assume that
OSU is his leader at this point, but until he verbals, Florida and other top programs will get very close looks.
Instate kids are usually locks if they grew up rooting for
OSU. And 90% of instate kids do grow up rooting for
OSU. There's the other ten percent whose allegiences to
OSU may not be so solid from the start (Clifford, Gonzalez, Saine) but can easily become Buckeyes because of their school's affinity to
OSU, familiarity with the
OSU program, family or friends' ties to
OSU, etc.
For OOS recruits, if you manage to sign 33% of the "locks", you are in great shape. For instate recruits, if you sign 90% of the locks, you are good. That's just the nature of the beast.