2009 Rivals/Scout/etc. National & Regional Rankings

[Muck]

Yes, the Buckeyes have 16 commitments and this class is very strong, but we cannot put Ohio State ahead of LSU and Georgia until these prospects prove their worth on the field.

Folks Tom Luginbill just publicly admitted that his rankings are based on what school a player picks rather than an objectibe analysis of their skills. In writing he just stated for the world "I have no credibility".

That is freakin' awesome!

You stay classy Tom.

[B-town Buckeye]

The last couple of days, I've been digging a little deeper into the ESPN/Scouts Inc. rankings over time...especially as they compare to the two other main websites that have followed recruiting closely in recent time - Scout and Rivals.

Anyway, as we all know, Scout and Rivals have been doing top 100 lists since 2002. All are easily available on both websites. ESPN has joined the game more recently...only having top 100 (top 150 in their case) lists back to 2006.

Basically I went to each of the websites top 100 lists for as far back as records seem to be available to see how each saw the top 100 kids in the nation each year. My thinking was that, since all these websites are looking at basically the same tapes, talking to similar people and have pretty much the same information at hand overall, that the makeup of each list in terms of regional breakdown would be similar. Maybe not exact...but similar. (Also, I was under no delusion that there should be anything close to equal regional distribution on these lists...as it is known that Florida, California and Texas are big-time recruiting states moreso than any other and that they should dominate any top 100 list. But I DID think the numbers for each region would be similar across the board among the 3 recruiting services).


What I found couldn't be further from the truth...especially in the case of the ESPN/Scouts Inc list compared to the other two.

What I did: Looked at where each player on each list played his HS football and broke that down into 6 different catagories - Florida, Texas, California and Ohio...while also adding up kids that went to high schools located in both SEC states (Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi) and Big 10 states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota). Also, I did not make a catagory for 'other' as for this exercise the 1 kid a year from Colorado that makes a list really doesn't matter...


The results...raw data (boring, skip it...just put it here since I jotted it all down and so people couldn't say I was making stuff up. Also, since there's lots of numbers here, I may be off 1 or 2 here and there...sue me. Also, feel free to check my work...I have gone crosseyed at this point)

2002 Scout Top 100
14 Florida
16 Texas
15 California
6 Ohio
16 Other SEC state
9 Other Big 10 state

2003 Scout
14 Florida
13 Texas
14 California
8 Ohio
19 Other SEC
13 Other Big 10

2004 Scout
13 Florida
16 Texas
10 California
3 Ohio
20 Other SEC
16 Other Big 10

2005 Scout
12 Florida
10 Texas
11 California
4 Ohio
20 Other SEC
14 Other Big 10

2006 Scout
7 Florida
12 Texas
16 California
8 Ohio
20 Other SEC
12 Other Big 10

2007 Scout
10 Florida
12 Texas
12 California
5 Ohio
25 Other SEC
14 Other Big 10

2008 Scout
14 Florida
16 Texas
12 California
5 Ohio
19 Other SEC
12 Other Big 10

2009 Scout
14 Florida
14 Texas
9 California
5 Ohio
18 Other SEC
13 Other Big 10

Scout totals
98 Florida (12.25% of all top 100s over the 8 years came from Florida)
109 Texas (13.625%)
99 California (12.375%)
44 Ohio (5.5%)
157 Other SEC state (19.625%)
103 Other Big 10 state (12.875)
255 SEC total (FL + the others) (31.875%)
147 B10 total (OH + the others) (18.375%)



2002 Rivals
14 Florida
13 Texas
16 California
6 Ohio
21 Other SEC
5 Other Big 10

2003 Rivals
16 Florida
14 Texas
17 California
5 Ohio
20 Other SEC
13 Other Big 10

2004 Rivals
17 Florida
14 Texas
9 California
4 Ohio
18 Other SEC
15 Other Big 10

2005 Rivals
14 Florida
11 Texas
10 California
3 Ohio
22 Other SEC
13 Other Big 10

2006 Rivals
13 Florida
14 Texas
14 California
5 Ohio
20 Other SEC
10 Other Big 10

2007 Rivals
11 Florida
11 Texas
11 California
3 Ohio
24 Other SEC
13 Other Big 10

2008 Rivals
16 Florida
15 Texas
13 California
5 Ohio
23 Other SEC
12 Other Big 10

2009 Rivals
16 Florida
10 Texas
11 California
7 Ohio
23 Other SEC
11 Other Big 10

Rivals Totals
117 Florida (14.625%)
102 Texas (12.75%)
101 California (12.625%)
38 Ohio (4.75%)
171 Other SEC (21.3755)
92 Other Big 10 (11.5%)
288 Total SEC state (36%)
130 Total B10 state (16.25%)


2006 ESPN (their starting point)
11 Florida
13 Texas
11 California
6 Ohio
26 Other SEC
11 Other Big 10

2007 ESPN
18 Florida
13 Texas
9 California
3 Ohio
29 Other SEC
6 Other Big 10

2008 ESPN
24 Florida
17 Texas
7 California
2 Ohio
29 Other SEC
7 Other Big 10


ESPN totals
53 Florida (17.666%)
43 Texas (14.33%)
27 California (9%)
11 Ohio (3.66%)
84 Other SEC state (28%)
24 Other Big 10 state (8%)
137 Total SEC state (45.666%)
35 Total B10 state (11.66%)


(2009 ESPN top 100/150 is not out yet and therefore cannot be used in this exercise....)



How they compare (short, handy version with added emphasis from me...)

Scout totals
98 Florida (12.25% of all top 100s over the 8 years came from Florida)
109 Texas (13.625%)
99 California (12.375%)
44 Ohio (5.5%)
157 Other SEC state (19.625%)
103 Other Big 10 state (12.875)
255 SEC total (FL + the others) (31.875%)
147 B10 total (OH + the others) (18.375%)


Rivals Totals
117 Florida (14.625%)
102 Texas (12.75%)
101 California (12.625%)
38 Ohio (4.75%)
171 Other SEC (21.3755)
92 Other Big 10 (11.5%)
288 Total SEC state (36%)
130 Total B10 state (16.25%)

ESPN totals (only 3 years, so total numbers are smaller...% are legit)
53 Florida (17.666%)
43 Texas (14.33%)
27 California (9%)
11 Ohio (3.66%)
84 Other SEC state (28%)
24 Other Big 10 state (8%)
137 Total SEC state (45.666%)
35 Total B10 state (11.66%)


My conclusion...well, ESPN/Scouts Inc loves southeastern high school football players in a way that I would consider to be statistically significant. It seems that the long-standing belief is that Rivals has the major southern/Texas tilt and bias, but ESPN/Scouts Inc. completely blows them out of the water here IMO. Also, some leeway can be given ESPN since their sample size is smaller (but judging by what I've seen of their 2009 rankings and top 150 watch list...it looks like more of the same to me...)

Also, scout and rivals seem to have the top 3 states of Florida, Texas and California real close but ESPN breaks that a bit there as well, as California falls off quite a bit (relatively) from the two others in a way that was surprising to me.



So...to sum up (and to get this into Buckeye terms) - all of the above is why ESPN's rather dismissive opinion of Ohio State committments should never come as a surprise. The Buckeyes, while stepping up OOS recruiting efforts...especially in Florida, will always be fighting an uphill battle with the ESPN/Scouts Inc. crew because they seem to devalue the area in which OSU gets most of its recruits, while inflating others. Not a big deal in the scheme of things...but I think there's enough evidence there to indicate their overall point of view.


(And kudos to anyone who actually read all this...)

[Blackburn]

The State of Ohio has over 20% of the top 150 you mention. Ohio has less than four percent of the country's population.

The states you mention are way bigger than Ohio. Florida is the closest, and they have 40% more people. The SEC "area" is much more populated than the mid west as well. Of the tens of thousands of high school football players, trying to nail down a top 150, 100 etc. is futile.

Damn you! Now you have me at my calculator.

[B-town Buckeye]

my calculator is not happy with me either lol...


...for the record, my point wasn't to try to say there should necessarily be more Ohio guys...just more to point out exactly how different ESPN/Scouts Inc. is seeing the recruiting world in comparison to their counterparts.

Going in, I expected somewhere between the scout and rivals numbers for the SEC/B10 state comparison (roughly 2-to-1)...but the ESPN/Scouts Inc. numbers (roughly 4 to 1)...just seem way out of whack to me.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Claretwasframed

The State of Ohio has over 20% of the top 150 you mention. Ohio has less than four percent of the country's population.

The states you mention are way bigger than Ohio. Florida is the closest, and they have 40% more people. The SEC "area" is much more populated than the mid west as well. Of the tens of thousands of high school football players, trying to nail down a top 150, 100 etc. is futile.

Damn you! Now you have me at my calculator.

Actually, the states that make up the SEC are much less populated than the Midwestern states that make up the Big 10.

[mb7015a]

Nothing to see here

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by mb7015a

Doing some quick and dirty calculations, it seems the Southern states had 300,000 more folks in 2007, according to Wikipedia, though fewer per state.

Don't know where you get that. Here's the math from the 2007 numbers listed on Wikipedia:

SEC States
State (Conference schools therein) - Population
Florida (UF) - 18,251,243
Georgia (UGA) - 9,544,750
Tennessee (Tenn, Vandy) - 6,156,719
Alabama (Alabama, Auburn) - 4,627,851
South Carolina (USC) - 4,407,709
Louisiana (LSU) - 4,293,204
Kentucky (UK) - 4,241,474
Mississippi (Miss, Miss St) - 2,918,785
Arkansas (Arkansas) - 2,834,797
Total - 57,276,532

Big Ten States
State (Conference schools therein) - Population
Illinois (Illinois, Northwestern) - 12,852,548
Pennsylvania (PSU) - 12,432,792
Ohio (OSU) - 11,466,917
Michigan (scUM, MSU) - 10,071,822
Indiana (Indiana, Purdue) - 6,345,289
Wisconsin (Wisconsin) - 5,601,640
Minnesota (The 'U') - 5,197,621
Iowa (Iowa) - 2,988,046
Total - 66,956,675

Source: List of U.S. states by population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Big Ten states have nearly 10,000,000 more people, despite being represented by one fewer state. Maybe you forgot to include PA since it is not traditionally considered part of the Midwest? Or maybe you included southern states that don't actually represent the SEC, like North Carolina? These numbers all makes sense, of course, since the Midwest is much more urbanized than the Southeast.

[Blackburn]

Here is an interresting article about where football talent comes from. It was on the free rivals board, so I think it is OK to post.

Rivals.com Football Recruiting - Where's all the talent coming from?

[TheIronColonel]

Not sure if this is the right place to link this, but...

Tom Luginbill: I've never watched football before

Everyone is welcome to their opinion, but calling out OSU's recruits for not having proved anything but lavishing praise on all the other schools recruits seems pretty ridiculous.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by B-town Buckeye

(And kudos to anyone who actually read all this...)

I did...GPA for all that research.

[HotMic]

Originally Posted by TheIronColonel

Not sure if this is the right place to link this, but...

Tom Luginbill: I've never watched football before

Everyone is welcome to their opinion, but calling out OSU's recruits for not having proved anything but lavishing praise on all the other schools recruits seems pretty ridiculous.

Someone should ask that tool box how Pryor is doing at WVU...errrrr....Tennessee....errrrr......Michigan. ....errrrr.....Oregon.

Anything he says is about equal to what you'll find on the floor of a hog pen.

[B-town Buckeye]

Originally Posted by TheIronColonel

Not sure if this is the right place to link this, but...

Tom Luginbill: I've never watched football before

Everyone is welcome to their opinion, but calling out OSU's recruits for not having proved anything but lavishing praise on all the other schools recruits seems pretty ridiculous.

Only way OSU's commits could 'prove it' to ESPN/Scouts Inc. is by all moving to the southeast or Texas, it seems. My guess is signing on for their All-Star game wouldn't hurt, either (judging by some of the press given some of the kids that have already agreed to their game).

Will be very interesting when their top 150 is released. I WILL have my calculator at the ready when that day rolls around


Also Rivals is updating their rankings this week, with a new top 100 coming out on Monday. Will be most interested in how they handle Emilien...as he has 'blown up' as much as anyone on the OSU radar in the last 6 weeks or so.

[OregonBuckeye]

Originally Posted by B-town Buckeye

Also Rivals is updating their rankings this week, with a new top 100 coming out on Monday. Will be most interested in how they handle Emilien...as he has 'blown up' as much as anyone on the OSU radar in the last 6 weeks or so.

I'll be interested in seeing if Simon and Mewhort get their just due.

[B-town Buckeye]

Not holding my breath Rivals giving Simon some (much deserved) love. They didn't seem to like him too much in their DT breakdown they put out last week. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if they left him off their top 100, actually.

Mewhort should be a different story since he has done the camps and combines and seems to have performed pretty well each time.

Will also be interesting to see what they do with Fields since Rivals has him considerably higher than scout and ESPN/Scouts Inc.

[TheIronColonel]

Originally Posted by B-town Buckeye

Only way OSU's commits could 'prove it' to ESPN/Scouts Inc. is by all moving to the southeast or Texas, it seems. My guess is signing on for their All-Star game wouldn't hurt, either (judging by some of the press given some of the kids that have already agreed to their game).

I don't follow recruiting that closely, but this is the exact thing that bugged me about Luginbill's assessment. All of the kids on the list are high school juniors, yet somehow only Ohio State's kids haven't proved anything. Ultimately it doesn't matter what he thinks, since it has no impact on how good the football team is, but it's certainly irksome to see such a cognitive dissonance in someone who, supposedly, is an expert in the field.