Tour de France 2009 - Who wins?

[fourteenandoh]

Originally Posted by dragurd

Yeah but at some point the team will be forced to choose sides, help Lance win or help Alberto win. Like today if the team had decided they wanted Lance in yellow his teamate would of lead the way chasing bat Alberto setting up Lance for an attack.

that's what i don't understand. how do you help someone win?

[jlb1705]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

that's what i don't understand. how do you help someone win?

Teammates take turns doing the pacesetting, allowing the top rider(s) on the team to ride in their slipstream and conserve energy which they can use to attack or stay on an opposing rider's wheel.

Lance and the other Astana teammates that were in the main group could have gone after Contador, and probably could have caught him as a group, but it would have likely resulted in contending riders for the other team coming with them, meaning they'd be giving back Contador's time to other team's contending riders.

There will be a few mountain stages that are more grueling from start to finish - those will be ones where none of the pacesetting teammates can go strong all the way to the finish, leaving just the contenders to go head-to-head. That's where the race is usually won.

[BB73]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

can you explain the team aspect they keep aluding to? lance says it isn't ideal, but when it comes to make a decision either he or the other guy on his team won't like it. what are they talking about? doesn't it come to a point eventually where they can go head to head?

The rest of the guys on the team normally ride to protect the position of the team leader, if he has the yellow jersey or is on a good position to earn it during the tour. That involves setting the pace, and being in front of the team leader for the vast majority of the race, since it takes significantly less energy and effort to follow than it does to lead.

Lower level team members also have other helping duties. Guys called 'domestiques' drop back to the team car to pick uip water and food (energy bars, etc) and then use up some energy catching back up in order to distribute. They'll also drop back and help guys catch back up to the peloton (pack) after a flat tire or a fall. Those are normal team things, though, and aren't what really comes down to team strategy in crunch time.

The tour is normally won and lost on the time differences that are gained in the steep climbs and in the individual time trials. On the climbs, like in today's stage, the team strategy is based on which cyclist has the best chance to win the yellow jersey. Different things come into play. Today, Astana set the pace of the race most of the way - they wanted a fairly quick pace in order to split up the peloton. They wanted to thin out the size of the pack containing the top yellow jersey contenders, so that late in the race contenders from other teams would have very few teammates to help them. They also wanted to crack Cancellara (who had the yellow starting today), since he's a great road racer but not a top climber, in order to claim the yellow jersey. There was no doubt that Lance wanted to grab it today if he could - he mentioned it before the race.

Once the final climb was getting down to the nitty-gritty (after Cancellara cracked and the main group got down to less than 20 guys), for a while Astana was happy to just counter any individual attacks from serious contenders for the GC (General Classification, in which the yellow jersey is won). Guys on other teams that are a GC threat include Cadel Evans, Andy and Frank Schleck, Carlos Sastre, and Christian Vande Velde, but those guys were all between 1 and 3 minutes behind the lead. They need to make up that time in the mountains, because the peloton will always chase down a serious GC contender on any relatively flat stage.

So for most of the climb, the Astana guys were setting a steady pace, and just waiting to counter any attacks from the group of guys I mentioned (plus a handful of others). Astana guys other than Contador, Armstrong, and Leipheimer 'drove the train' as far as they could, and then dropped back. Late in the climb (the last 3K of a 10.6K climb) the serious attacks started. Cadel Evans tried to get away, but Contador and Armstrong stayed with him, and he couldn't break ahead to gain any time. With about 2K left, the group of main GC contenders was down to about 15 guys, and Contador attacked. He was trying to get the yellow jersey, but also trying to gain 19+ seconds on Lance in order to be the leader among the Astana guys.

Team tactics come into play when there's an attack like that. The rest of the group wants to catch up to Contador, and if they ride as a group and take turns leading it improves their chances. The teammates of the guy that made the break can actually mess that up by not taking a turn in the lead, or by doing tactical things like changing the pace.

So at that point Lance had to decide if he would help the group catch Contador (and also help keep himself as the Astana GC leader), or not help the group and allow Contador to maximize his time gain and improve his chances of winning the yellow jersey.

I didn't see Lance comment about the chase tactics after the race, but it seemed like Lance didn't try to help in the chase and was thus a 'team player'. The possibility also exists that he didn't have the energy to do that and was just hanging onto the pack.

Sometimes teams will also have a plan of attack, with different riders taking turns making an attack at different times, in order to make it tougher on the other contenders. Before the race, Johan Bruyneel (Astana Team Mgr) siad that no such plan existed today. (They won't always be honest in those situations, but today I believe he was). He was going to let the team ride together far into the climb, and then let who was stronger get sorted out at the very top. And Contador was clearly a little stronger, at least for today.

But 2 seconds is almost nothing in the tour. However, the only real stages where Lance can gain time is the remaining mountain stages and the individual time trials.

July 11 - Mtn
July 12 - Mtn
July 19 - Mtn
July 21 - Mtn
July 22 - Mtn
July 23 - Indiv time trail
July 25 - Mtn
July 26 - Into Paris, the GC lead almost never changes on the last day

[jlb1705]

This stage raised a lot of questions for me. Was Armstrong really being a "team player" or did he just not have it in him? If he thinks he doesn't have it in him, would he not even try and just defer to the team? I imagine it would not look good at all to see someone of his stature cracking. I want to see him give it everything - give Contador his best shot, and let things fall where they may. Today was probably not the time nor place for that though.

[AKAKBUCK]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

This stage raised a lot of questions for me. Was Armstrong really being a "team player" or did he just not have it in him? If he thinks he doesn't have it in him, would he not even try and just defer to the team? I imagine it would not look good at all to see someone of his stature cracking. I want to see him give it everything - give Contador his best shot, and let things fall where they may. Today was probably not the time nor place for that though.

Nah, Contador decided to run at the jersey himself today at the end, I don't think Lance cared that much... at least not for now.

When the decisive stage comes... the dance will start much earlier than it did today...

Might not be until Ventoux.

[BB73]

Originally Posted by AKAKBUCK

Nah, Contador decided to run at the jersey himself today at the end, I don't think Lance cared that much... at least not for now.

When the decisive stage comes... the dance will start much earlier than it did today...

Might not be until Ventoux.

Assuming the other time trial doesn't separate Lance and Contador by more than a minute, I think it will come down to Ventoux (July 25th). Isn't that the only other mountaintop finish this year?

For those who haven't watched a lot of the tour before, any gains of less than a minute are almost always wiped out on the descent. So guys usually decide it isn't worth draining themselves in order to try to gain time on a climb that has a long descent afterwards.

[Oh8ch]

I don't think Contador's attack was in any way decisive - but it certainly was impressive. If Lance had countered it would certainly exposed a level of competition that was outside any concept of team.

What I still don't understand is why Contador attacked. The team/coach said they didn't need to. The announcer/apologists kept saying they didn't need to - until it happened. Then it was cool.

Looked to me he was flat out trying to take the yellow from his teammate.

That said, Lance did not show much of a reaction when Contador went by.

[jlb1705]

I definitely think it was outside of the "team" concept. I'm glad he wasn't rewarded with the yellow jersey.

[BB73]

Originally Posted by Oh8ch

I don't think Contador's attack was in any way decisive - but it certainly was impressive. If Lance had countered it would certainly exposed a level of competition that was outside any concept of team.

What I still don't understand is why Contador attacked. The team/coach said they didn't need to. The announcer/apologists kept saying they didn't need to - until it happened. Then it was cool.

Looked to me he was flat out trying to take the yellow from his teammate.

That said, Lance did not show much of a reaction when Contador went by.

I wasn't surprised at all that Contador attacked. He's racing Lance for the win, and he was 19 seconds behind. The 3 stages where he can gain real time are yesterday's, the individual time trial and Ventoux. He saw a chance to take time from Lance yesterday and he took it. Because nobody else went with him, it didn't hurt Astana at all in the standings. If Evans, Sastre, or one of the Schleck's would have been able to go with him, then it would have been a problem.

I did have to take note, however, that Eddie Merckx was quoted this morning as saying that Contador shouldn't have done it, since he'll need his teammates later in the race.

But I don't think it will hurt Contador, even if some other teammates didn't like it. Lance and Contador are going to be riding together for virtually every stage left, with the only probable exception being the last 3K on the way up Ventoux two weeks from today. So when the team is doing their pacing and their protecting, they'll do doing it for both Lance and Contador.

Astana can actually benefit from not having the yellow jersey for the next few days. Nocentini's team will have to share in the responsibility to bring back any breakaways that threaten the overall lead.

[Oh8ch]

Astana can actually benefit from not having the yellow jersey for the next few days.

Agree. Note that it was not Astana that tried to drop Nocentini. That only happened because Schleck tried to make a move.

I wasn't surprised at all that Contador attacked. He's racing Lance for the win, and he was 19 seconds behind. The 3 stages where he can gain real time are yesterday's, the individual time trial and Ventoux. He saw a chance to take time from Lance yesterday and he took it. Because nobody else went with him, it didn't hurt Astana at all in the standings. If Evans, Sastre, or one of the Schleck's would have been able to go with him, then it would have been a problem.

I was surprised only because I thought they would hold together as a team longer. For the little he gained I thought it was a mistake to expose himself this early and create the amount of dissension he did within the team. He took advantage of the situation to attack Lance and the entire team (Levi is still a contender as well) when he knew they were not likely to counter whether they could or not. In that sense it clearly hurt Astana. I also believe that if push comes to shove this team supports Lance. In that regard it was not a smart thing to do.

[jlb1705]

Tour de France 2009: A Reckless Move?

A Reckless Move? Alberto Contador's attack at the end of stage 7 may prove to hurt him in the long run.
By James Startt

Lance Armstrong rolled alone down the mountain after the seventh stage of the Tour de France, and his race-hardened face told a story all its own: In his mind, Astana teammate Alberto Contador had just lost the Tour de France.

The growing rivalry between Armstrong and Contador has been the saga of this year's Tour, one that pits the race's legendary champion against the greatest rider of the current generation. Going into the day's stage--which would conclude with a mountaintop finish in Andorra Arcalis--Armstrong held a 19-second lead over Contador, and with it, the symbolic leadership of the Astana team.

Strong headwinds greeted the pack as they ascended the final climb. The winds made it nearly impossible for any dramatic breakaways as the Astana controlled the pace at the front. The scenario was perfect for Armstrong-it allowed him to secure his hold on second place without expending too much energy. The situation proved too frustrating for Contador, however. With 2 kilometers to go before the finish line, he broke away from the rest of his team and shot up the mountain alone. He made up 21 seconds, which bumped Armstrong to third place and placed Contador in second.

At the finish, Armstrong appeared betrayed. "That wasn't really the plan," Armstrong said of Contador's attack, unable to put a positive spin on a story that had suddenly gone wrong. "But I didn't expect him to go by the plan. I wasn't surprised." According to Armstrong, the team planned to conserve energy and not place the
team in a position of force too early in the race.

Liggett & Sherwen were talking about this during today's coverage. They were reading between the lines of Armstrong's responses saying that he was basically thinking, "That's nice, but I'm about to win the TdF."

I really hope that battle comes to pass and that Armstrong smokes everybody.

[jlb1705]

Read two columns on the Tour last night.

In the first one, Gregg Doyel apparently stopped watching Oxygen long enough to write an article saying that Lance would destroy his legacy by winning this year's tour, and that Michael Jordan was superior because he sucked when he came back. When I gave up on ESPN years ago I started visiting Sportsline as my go-to site. For the most part I've been able to shrug off clowns like him and Dodd. I'm done with them now. This is the second article in a row I've read from him where he spouted off on something where it was apparent he didn't even care enough to watch or read any facts. I'm not gonna link the article, but you can still get to it from their front page if you're morbidly curious. I'm not going to bother to give them a link.

The second article was here, from SI.com: Lance Armstrong represents clash of cultures in Tour de France - The Bonus - SI.com

It goes into depth about the differences in the cultural perceptions of the sport and doping in Europe, the USA, and among the peloton. Discusses how Armstrong has deftly managed his image among all these constituents thru his career. Highly recommended. I think I will be taking my regular readership to them from now on.

[buckeyesin07]

Originally Posted by BB73

I did have to take note, however, that Eddie Merckx was quoted this morning as saying that Contador shouldn't have done it, since he'll need his teammates later in the race.

I think Contador saw this as his only chance to get the support of the team. If he doesn't surpass Lance in Stage 7, then he's 18 seconds behind and Lance is the de facto team leader.

[Folanator]

Originally Posted by Oh8ch

I don't think Contador's attack was in any way decisive - but it certainly was impressive. If Lance had countered it would certainly exposed a level of competition that was outside any concept of team.

Dissagree, he only gained 20 seconds in 2K. Not impressed. He had a great jump, but did not stretch it out. This is what you are seeing now that these guys are not all juiced up, they cannot sustain the 500 watt efforts for 20 min, they go hard for a min. and then bonk just like a normal human.

[jlb1705]

We haven't talked about the sprinters too much, but what Columbia & Cavendish are doing is quite impressive. Nobody can overtake the man, and his team is doing a perfect job of leading him out. Columbia are dominating the peloton leading out sprints like Postal/Discovery used to dominate in setting up Armstrong for yellow.