Tour de France 2009 - Who wins?

[Folanator]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

We haven't talked about the sprinters too much, but what Columbia & Cavendish are doing is quite impressive. Nobody can overtake the man, and his team is doing a perfect job of leading him out. Columbia are dominating the peloton leading out sprints like Postal/Discovery used to dominate in setting up Armstrong for yellow.

It's true, but this is a very very low point for sprinters. There is not much talent out there since Boonan tanked, Chipo retired and everyone else got old like Robbie, Thor and whoever. He's great but there's not much competition to test him. Same can be said for the climbers. Me reading between the lines, it's becasue of drug testing that everyone is similar.

[Oh8ch]

Ouch! Leipheimer is out.

Simple fall yesterday that was his own fault.

This was Lance's biggest asset against Contador. Time to update those odds.

[jlb1705]

Originally Posted by Oh8ch

Ouch! Leipheimer is out.

Simple fall yesterday that was his own fault.

This was Lance's biggest asset against Contador. Time to update those odds.

Damn, that sucks.

[BB73]

Although it's not a huge climb, there's an uphill finish on Sunday at Verbier. So there's a chance for the non-Astana guys to make a move to pick up some time.

Other than that, it should boil down to the individual TT and the finish up Ventoux.

[jlb1705]

Doesn't even look like it's gonna come down to Ventoux. The other top riders are close enough to pay lipservice to trying to win, but Contador is clearly on another level. He is making these climbs look effortless.

Before the stage Armstrong said the end of this stage was like a mini L'Alpe d'Huez - and it turned out to be just as decisive.

Armstrong sits in second but looks like he's gonna have to try to stay close on the climbs and take time in the ITT in order to make the podium.

Contador is gonna run away with the next week.

[dragurd]

These team tactics are starting to annoy me. For once I'd like to see Lance at least try to go with Contador rather then playing the teammate and forcing everyone else who obviously can't go to chase him back.

[jlb1705]

That wasn't a team tactic today. Lance gave everything he had and didn't have enough. He even said as much at the end. It was a great ride for someone his age who's been out of the sport for a few years - but he doesn't have winning form at this point.

If it was about the team and not about what Lance was capable of, then we would've at least seen him stay on the wheel of the guys who finished 2-8 in the stage when they attacked behind Contador.

[BB73]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

That wasn't a team tactic today. Lance gave everything he had and didn't have enough. He even said as much at the end. It was a great ride for someone his age who's been out of the sport for a few years - but he doesn't have winning form at this point.

If it was about the team and not about what Lance was capable of, then we would've at least seen him stay on the wheel of the guys who finished 2-8 in the stage when they attacked behind Contador.

Exactly. Contador showed he"s much the better climber at this point.

And being on Astana isn't hurting Lance. If he wasn't on Astana, he wouldn't have a very good chance at the podium (the team TT really helped him in the GC standings). He can still get the podium, which is an excellent achievement. Plus, Astana-teammate Kloden helped Lance for quite a long way along the last 5K of the climb. It would have been interesting to see what Leipheimer could have done today.

Contador looks to have this in the bag unless he breaks a bone or fails a drug test. But the batlle for the other two podium spots should be a good 4-way fight among Lance, Wiggins, Andy Schleck, and Kloden.

Saxo's strategy played right into Contador today. They rode hard at the start of the climb (Voigt, etc.), breaking up the peloton. Contador went earlier than I thought he would today, but he showed that he knew what he was doing.

[dragurd]

I'm not sure he gave it everything he had. He did look tired but it also looked like he was content to save what energy he had rather then even attempting to go after them. Maybe it was becuase he knew he didn't have enough but I didn't see him crack either just the same steady pace the whole way.

[Thump]

Leipheimer was Lance's best chance to win this race.

When he dropped out, so did Lance's small chance of winning.

He's still been as impressive as hell though!

[Oh8ch]

If Lance is convinced he can't win this thing - and I believe he is - his podium chances are hurt by his role as a domestique. A good domestique burns himself up getting his rider to the front, and then falls back into the pack for lack of reserve energy. The only thing that may get him to the podium is that Contador may not need that much help.

An interesting question about Leipheimer is not how much he could have helped Lance, but what he could have done in his own right. He showed some very strong form up until his injury.

[Taosman]

Lance is in second place overall so he still has a good chance. The best rider doesn't always win. Contador is clearly the best. But Lance is very experienced, his team loves him and that counts for a lot in this Tour.

The HD coverage is amazing and worthy of a major event. Just gorgeous!

[jlb1705]

If Lance is behind Contador, so is everyone else. Besides, for as much the riders might like one guy or another, they also like getting paid, so they'll be backing the clear frontrunner because the winner traditionally divides the purse among his teammates.

I think this might turn out like a more harmonious version of the old T-Mobile team that included Ullrich, Kloden & Vinokourov. Technically they were riding in service of Ullrich's chances, but the others also had strong chances at the podium themselves.

If things fall right, I think we could see three Astana riders on the podium in Paris. I will be mildly shocked if there aren't at least two of them there. Andy Scleck showed good form, but will he give back time in the ITT? Same for Sastre, but to an even greater extent. The rider I'm most interested in is Wiggins. I think he surprised everybody yesterday. Can he sustain that throughout the next week? He'll probably be the best time trial rider out of the non-Astana contenders, so it'll be interesting to see how he does now that Vande Velde will be pulling him up the mountains.

[Folanator]

Finally, some excitement. I have been board stiff with this years tour so far.

Very impressive by AC. Nice climb. He is the winner.

LA will make the podeum. I think he ends up 3rd behind Wiggens. They have to be careful of Sastre because he could overtake LA on Venteux. Andy Schleck cannot make enough time to overcome his TT issues.

A little inside scoop, don't be suprised if Alberto ends up with Garmin next year. There is some serious chatter, and yes this is the one area I have some "insider" knowlege.

[dragurd]

Wow I was beginning to think Lance had really lost it after he got dropped but he showed that he still has that when I want to go I will go and you can't stop me left. Makes me question sunday even more. That and I think if Contador wasn't in yellow he might of kept on going right past them.