Tour de France 2009 - Who wins?

[BB73]

It was very impressive to see Lance catch up (all by himself) to the elite group that had taken about a 30-second lead on the second (and last) big climb today. Nothing changed in the top 5 overall - Cadel Evans lost more time and is completely out of it.

Jens Voigt took one of the worst falls I've ever seen on a fairly straight section of road. He was at the back of a pack, just a little ways into the final descent, and his bike hit a little bump in the road (just before the youtube starts). He was at a little bit of an angle, and his front wheel may have just been hitting the painted stripe, and he went completely off the bike and did a face-plant at close to 50 mph.

YouTube - Jens Voigt Crash Stage 16 Tour de...

Jens was unconscious for 3 to 4 minutes and was taken to a hospital. Hopefully he's not severely injured - it's a rough break for him, and will hurt SaxoBank teammate Andy Schleck's chances at the podium. But Astana already lost Leipheimer; that's the nature of Le Tour.

NYDaily.News

Juinen/Getty
German cyclist Jens Voigt of team Saxo Bank lies injured on the ground after a high-speed crash Tuesday at the Tour de France.

[BB73]

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. There are 5 climbs, with a pair of Cat-1s early and another pair late, just before a short descent to the finish.

I think the serious attacks will start on Le Col de Romme, the first of the two Cat-1 climbs near the end. But Astana should have the horses to cover any moves made by other GC contenders.

[tmporter]

Originally Posted by BB73

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. There are 5 climbs, with a pair of Cat-1s early and another pair late, just before a short descent to the finish.

I think the serious attacks will start on Le Col de Romme, the first of the two Cat-1 climbs near the end. But Astana should have the horses to cover any moves made by other GC contenders.

I would tend to agree that Astana has the horeses to cover most anything except a crash on one of the descents. I would guess they will attack later so they can use more of their workhorses. Losing Levi sure did not do the rest of them any favors but you won't break Zubeldia, Kloden and Armstrong on the same stage so they will have cover for every move. Early on Rast, Popovych, Murvavyev, and Paulinho can set the pace. That team is just awesome. If Kloden wants to put forth the effort and if he can take the pain Astana could go 1,2,3 in the Tour.

[Thump]

Lance may gain more foreign respect for a non-first place finish and supporting Contador than all of his 7 victories combined.

[BB73]

Jens Voight was reported to have a broken cheekbone from that crash yesterday.

Lance actually did a great team ride today, while dropping from 2nd to 4th overall.

On the Col de Romme, when Andy Scleck took off, Contador and Kloden went with him, leaving Wiggins, Armstrong, Frank Schleck, Vande Velde, and Nibali behind. Lance then marked Wiggins (at the time the most obvious podium contender), not taking a turn in front in order to make it harder for Wiggins to catch the leaders. When Frank Schleck broke off, Lance stayed back, in order to increase Wiggins' time loss. On the last climb, after Vande Velde had dropped off, Lance waited until Wiggins was gassed before leaving him on a steep section. Lance then caught Klioden on the descent, but Wiggins lost over 3 minutes to Contador, and almost 1 minute to Lance and Kloden.

It looked for a while like Astana might have a chance at a 1-2-3 finish. But Contador's late attack on le Col de la Columbiere backfired, leaving only Kloden behind. Contador and the Schlecks finished over 2 minutes ahead of everybody else today. The current GC standings are:

0:00 Contador
2:26 Andy Schleck
3:25 Frank Schleck
3:55 Armstrong
4:44 Kloden
4:53 Wiggins
6:09 Nibali

The Schlecks will lose time (perhaps a couple of minutes) in the individual time trial tomorrow, and Wiggins should do very well, so the podium spots should be a battle among those 3 plus Lance. I don't think Kloden can finish in the top 3 now.

If the Schlecks get knocked out of the top-3 tomorrow (at least 1 of them should), they'll attack on Mt. Ventoux on Saturday to try to recapture a podium spot.

Thor Hushovd had a great first half of the stage today, surprisingly being first over a couple of climbs, and winning 12 points at two green jersey Sprint points.

It looks like all 4 jerseys will stay where they are now: Contador in yellow, Hushovd in green (30 point lead over Cavendish), Andy Schleck in white (best rider under 25 years old), and Pellizotti in the polka-dotted King of the Mountains. Astana also has a 16 minute lead in the team competition, so only stage wins and the final podium positions for GC are in doubt.

Vande Velde also had a great team ride today, repeatedly pushing himself back in front of Wiggins to try to pull him up climbs, so that Garmin still has a shot at a podium finish. I've never been a big fan of his, but he really showed some fight today, all of it for the benefit of a teammate.

[dragurd]

Yeah I think Armstrong waited too long to attack. Sure he he hurt Wiggens but I'm pretty sure he cost himself any chance he had at Contador. Not that he had much of a chance to catch him in the first place as it looks like no one is breaking contador on the mountains and he was slower then Contador in the last time trial.

[jlb1705]

Contador looks to be a great rider but an awful teammate. It's good for him that he's good enough to win in spite of that, and that his teammates are are better to him than he is to them. It was lousy of him to drop Kloeden like that, and not very smart to put him self in an isolated position against the Schleck brothers.

On the bright side the tension he's brought back to Astana, along with the coming announcement of the new Armstrong/Bruyneel team for 2010 are doing a good job of setting up next year's tour. Maybe we'll get the Armstrong/Contador showdown next year for real - when they won't be restricted by the unwritten rules of the sport. Lance will have another year of training, but also another year of age.

I can easily see what will likely be the Livestrong/Nike team (or whoever the corporate sponsor is) having Leipheimer, Popovych and a roster full of other strong riders that can help Lance challenge for yellow next year. Everything that has happened so far after Verbier has me convinced that Lance can be even more competitive next year.

Meanwhile, if Contador is going to Garmin as rumored earlier in the thread, who will be there ride for him? I imagine he'll bring some strong Spanish riders with him, but I can't imagine guys like Wiggins or Vande Velde wanting to stick around and ride for him.

[dragurd]

Yeah dispite all the reports of Arm,strong supposedly being an arrogant jerk it seems he's a good teammate. He lets his termates win stages if the people are not a threat in the gc. Lets them have the yellow jersey and generally seems to get along well with them. While contador seems to freelance a lot more and worry only about himself winning. Though of course probably part of that is bias through out wanting to see lance do well glasses.

[MililaniBuckeye]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

Lance will have another year of training, but also another year of age.

The difference between age 37 and age 38, in any sport, is essentially nil. If Armstrong really, no-[censored], wants to win next year's TDF, he will.

[dragurd]

If Armstrong rides [censored]ed off like he has been known to in the past I think he can get to second and maybe get with a minute or a minute and a half of contador tomorrow. The question is if he does that will he be able to recover before Sat or will he blow himself to pieces. From what I gather though even though Contador has established himself the leader he's not making many friends on Astana which begs the question. Which side would the team and bruynell support if Lance wants to attack Contador on Ventoux

[Taosman]

He's rounding into top form at this point. Let's just see what Lance can do at age 37. I think he finishes second and on the podium in Paris.

[gracelhink]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

Contador looks to be a great rider but an awful teammate. It's good for him that he's good enough to win in spite of that, and that his teammates are better to him than he is to them.

Agree that the reputation of LA is soaring around the world for his team first attitude and deeds.

It was lousy of him to drop Kloeden like that, and not very smart to put him self in an isolated position against the Schleck brothers.

Right now Contador believes the Schleck brothers are his strongest rivals for the Tour de France victory, not LA or Bradley Wiggins. Contador is the strongest rider on the tour acc. to Astana tour manager Bruyneel.
What may have been perceived as "dropping Kloden" was a safer option for Contador than fading behind the Schleck's because Kloden was fatigued. If Contador had faded with Kloden they would have been forced to chase the Schleck's or drop back to the Peleton.
The "isolated position" is more a factor for lone breakaway cyclists. With the Schleck's Contador had two pacesetters to draft, fading with Kloden gave him one. Keeping pace with the Schleck's breakaway was Contador's smarter option.

On the bright side the tension he's brought back to Astana, along with the coming announcement of the new Armstrong/Bruyneel team for 2010 are doing a good job of setting up next year's tour.

Actually Astana was Contador's team when Armstrong asked to join it this year.

'The strongest always wins' -- and it's not Lance - Cycling - Yahoo! Sports

Meanwhile, if Contador is going to Garmin as rumored earlier in the thread, who will be there ride for him? I imagine he'll bring some strong Spanish riders with him, but I can't imagine guys like Wiggins or Vande Velde wanting to stick around and ride for him.

Armstrong finds new sponsor for Astana - Cycling - Yahoo! Sports

Lance Armstrong says he?s found a new American sponsor to back Astana next year. He won?t say if he will stay with the team or start his own squad.
?Making a very cool announcement on Thursday re: a new American partner for our team in 2010 (and beyond). Stay tuned!? Armstrong said on his Twitter feed Tuesday, without elaborating.

Sounds like LA is readying for either a new team or . . .
preparing to take over control of Astana next year.

[BB73]

What may have been perceived as "dropping Kloden" was a safer option for Contador than fading behind the Schleck's because Kloden was fatigued. If Contador had faded with Kloden they would have been forced to chase the Schleck's or drop back to the Peleton.

The "isolated position" is more a factor for lone breakaway cyclists. With the Schleck's Contador had two pacesetters to draft, fading with Kloden gave him one. Keeping pace with the Schleck's breakaway was Contador's smarter option.

Contador didn't make a decision to stay with the Schlecks, the decision was to attack them, and that's why Kloden fell behind.

The four of them were well clear, and Contador and Kloden had been following the Schlecks for the top half of the Le Col de Romme and most of the way up Le Col de la Columbiere. The Schlecks were doing all of the work. About 2K from the top, a couple of minutes after speaking with Kloden, Contador did an attack. The Schlecks stayed with him, but Kloden couldn't. It was that move by Contador that got Kloden isolated. He obviously had to stay with the Schlecks, but his acceleration is what cracked Kloden and forced him to go it alone.

The only justifiable reason for Contador to attack was to get another stage win. He didn't need to take any more time from the Schlecks to protect the yellow jersey. He probably thought he could get away from the Schlecks, who'd been doing all the pacing for a long time, and that Kloden could stay with them, since he had only been following.

Kloden may have been about to drop off anyway, but the way things happened it really hurt his chances at the podium. An Astana podium sweep would have been quite an accomplishment - Liggett said yesterday that no team has done that since 1914.

Here are some quotes from after the stage:

Link

"I spoke about attacking the Schleck brothers with [team director] Johan Bruyneel, the goal was to gain minutes. I also spoke with Kl?den on the climb, and he told me to go for it," Contador said.

"I thought I could go alone but the brothers managed to come back. When I saw Andreas could not follow, it was too late. He was really struggling at that moment."

"I told [Contador], 'you don't have to attack today to win the Tour de France.' The difference was already there to Bradley Wiggins, who we were most worried about," said Bruyneel. "It is a bit of pity Andreas could not hang on because I think we could have been first, second and third in the classification."

[jlb1705]

Right now Contador believes the Schleck brothers are his strongest rivals for the Tour de France victory, not LA or Bradley Wiggins. Contador is the strongest rider on the tour acc. to Astana tour manager Bruyneel.
What may have been perceived as "dropping Kloden" was a safer option for Contador than fading behind the Schleck's because Kloden was fatigued. If Contador had faded with Kloden they would have been forced to chase the Schleck's or drop back to the Peleton.
The "isolated position" is more a factor for lone breakaway cyclists. With the Schleck's Contador had two pacesetters to draft, fading with Kloden gave him one. Keeping pace with the Schleck's breakaway was Contador's smarter option.

LA is not a threat because he's been a good teammate. Wiggins is not a threat because LA was a good teammate and sat on Wiggins' wheel and lost time himself instead of carrying him back to the group.

Also, there's no two ways about it - Contador dropped Kloeden and just happened to get away with it. The rest of the team have pretty much said as much. It's not as if Contador would've stayed with him no matter what. If he couldn't hang with the regular pace of the group or with a Schleck bros. attack, then so be it. It was Contador's move that dropped him though - it was unnecessary, outside the manager's plan and really not smart on his part because he opened up no time on his main rival while isolating himself against him and his teammate. What if he got caught out by an acceleration (unlikely given his form, but still). What if there were a mechanical problem?

Sounds like LA is readying for either a new team or . . .
preparing to take over control of Astana next year.

Armstrong will not be on Astana next year - and neither will virtually anybody else of importance who's currently on the roster. That team was created expressly for Alexandre Vinokourov, who is currently serving a suspension for doping. His suspension ends after the TdF, and Vino & the Kazakh government have stated in no uncertain terms that he will be the leader of the team upon his return and he has no use for Bruyneel & his riders, who were brought in to "clean up" the team in the wake of the mini-scandal that nabbed Vinokourov.

[jlb1705]

Originally Posted by BB73

The only justifiable reason for Contador to attack was to get another stage win. He didn't need to take any more time from the Schlecks to protect the yellow jersey. He probably thought he could get away from the Schlecks, who'd been doing all the pacing for a long time, and that Kloden could stay with them, since he had only been following.

Even if he had Kloden's blessing (I hadn't seen that yet), it was still a display of inexperience because he clearly misjudged the energy level of his main rivals.