Barack Obama (election coverage only-official)

[fourteenandoh]

Originally Posted by jimotis4heisman

based on supply? demand? stronger dollar (weaker world currency)?

also just think of what $70 oil does to these 'windfall' profits?

demand falling and dollar strengthening toward parity with the euro.

[Tresselbeliever]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

demand falling and dollar strengthening toward parity with the euro.

Please explain.

What is cause and effect in your scenario? What would induce demand to fall if prices are low? Alt energy?

[jimotis4heisman]

Originally Posted by Tresselbeliever

Please explain.

What is cause and effect in your scenario? What would induce demand to fall if prices are low? Alt energy?

slowing economies worldwide.
stronger usd vs world currency

[fourteenandoh]

Originally Posted by Tresselbeliever

Please explain.

What is cause and effect in your scenario? What would induce demand to fall if prices are low? Alt energy?

global recession

for instance, china released GDP yesterday at 9% vs 9.9% that was expected.

[Tresselbeliever]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

global recession

for instance, china released GDP yesterday at 9% vs 9.9% that was expected.

9.9% was the projected number months ago. 9% is certainly lower than 11%, but it's a number that is more sustainable in the long term. One thing to keep mind is that China's official figure has consistently been 1% lower than the figure produced by the aggregate of provincial numbers, according to Stephen Green at Standard Charter, and that it was down to 6% during SARS.

World's growth will be largely driven by the urbanization of the third world in the coming decades. That means more infrastructural demand, and that means a new class of consumers with much greater purchasing power. As long as this trend continues, I don't think the demand for oil is going to diminish.

[fourteenandoh]

9.9% was the private consensus number. i'm not thinking decades out, i'm thinking 1-3yrs maybe 5.

[Tresselbeliever]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

9.9% was the private consensus number. i'm not thinking decades out, i'm thinking 1-3yrs maybe 5.

It is certainly an interesting point. If there is indeed a prolonged recession of the real economy in the US, where do you think the world's capital are going? I think a lot of them are headed for places in Asia. I really hate to rely on anecdotal evidence to support my argument, but GE in April, after posting disappointing earnings, came out and declared that they are going to hire 20 inhouse ibankers and make $2 billion worth of acquisitions and deals in China in the next three years. But it seems to be the trend. Wall Mart and Carrefour are not only talking about expanding into the main cities, but also the second tier ones as well. If the US truly slows down, that may provide even more capital to the fastest growing nations.

[fourteenandoh]

Originally Posted by Tresselbeliever

It is certainly an interesting point. If there is indeed a prolonged recession of the real economy in the US, where do you think the world's capital are going? I think a lot of them are headed for places in Asia. I really hate to rely on anecdotal evidence to support my argument, but GE in April, after posting disappointing earnings, came out and declared that they are going to hire 20 inhouse ibankers and make $2 billion worth of acquisitions and deals in China in the next three years. But it seems to be the trend. Wall Mart and Carrefour are not only talking about expanding into the main cities, but also the second tier ones as well. If the US truly slows down, that may provide even more capital to the fastest growing nations.

a lot of the world's capital is evaporating into thin air, thus the deflationary risk. the recent trend is that all of the money is going into USD in the form of short end treasuries.

[jimotis4heisman]

look at it this way, china has 100 cites with 1m plus people. youd be a full not to try and sell your product there...

[Tresselbeliever]

Originally Posted by Tresselbeliever

Wall Mart and Carrefour are not only talking about expanding into the main cities, but also the second tier ones as well.

Did I just spell Walmart 'Wall Mart"?

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

a lot of the world's capital is evaporating into thin air, thus the deflationary risk. the recent trend is that all of the money is going into USD in the form of short end treasuries.

That's true. But the gov't is borrowing foreign capital to replenish domestic capital. So that will essentially bail out the investors in the short term, and the distressed debt funds that BlackRock and Blackstone and others hold will likely recover in value.

Right now because of the uncertainty in the capital markets people may be stuffing their money in their mattresses, but it won't take long before they realize other ways to invest that money, especially if China's urbanization drive continues.

Originally Posted by jimotis4heisman

look at it this way, china has 100 cites with 1m plus people. youd be a full not to try and sell your product there...

What's crazier is that the Chinese gov't just semi-privatized farming land, thus allowing farmers to sell/lease their land for a long duration to move into the cities. You are talking about 700 million people here.

[fourteenandoh]

how long till this gets split off?

some people think china's growth is a massive house of cards waiting to come back to earth. if that happens, look out.

[jimotis4heisman]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

how long till this gets split off?

some people think china's growth is a massive house of cards waiting to come back to earth. if that happens, look out.

the cards have lead paint on them?

[Tresselbeliever]

Originally Posted by fourteenandoh

how long till this gets split off?

some people think china's growth is a massive house of cards waiting to come back to earth. if that happens, look out.

I look at the world economy as niches. We are the most wealthy nation in the world, as we have the best scientists and businessmen. Yet we've been making terrible investments with our money on things that have net zero or negative returns. Why don't we start to invest in alt energies, which can truly transform the world economy and propel us to the top again? Instead of spending billions on star wars, why don't we find better uses for space technologies? I think we can thrive as long as we go back to being innovative and resourceful regardless of what China or anyone else does.

[jimotis4heisman]

star wars is the tech that led to the yellow first down line, great investment imo...

Early Voting Attracts Outsize Portion of Blacks - WSJ.com

ATLANTA -- Lorene Smith was in her twenties when she marched with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. as a member of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. She witnessed first-hand all kinds of history-book images -- the fire hoses, police dogs and flailing billy clubs.
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Associated PressFlorida supporters of Sen. Barack Obama attend a campaign rally Oct. 20 in Tampa, Fla.






Now, at 65, she has graying hair and a bad back that prevents her from standing too long. She is taking no chances with a ballot she once believed could never be cast -- a vote for an African-American presidential candidate. "We gonna have two little black girls in the White House running up and down the hallways to find their dog," she said as she voted Tuesday.
Americans are voting early in large numbers this year -- and African-Americans in several states are turning out in disproportionate numbers. Some fear that polling places in predominantly black neighborhoods will be overwhelmed by a record turnout on Election Day. Others are voting early to be certain the chance to elect the first black U.S. president doesn't slip away.
In Georgia, where early voting began on Sept. 22, African-Americans account for 29% of active voters but have so far made up nearly 36% of about 758,000 early voters. By comparison, African-Americans represented 25% of the overall turnout in 2004.
In Florida, African-Americans accounted for 21% of ballots cast Monday even though they make up 13% of voters. In North Carolina, African-Americans accounted for 33% of ballots cast as of Monday even though they make up 21% of voters.
New registrations, due partly to excitement over the candidacy of Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and a voter-registration drive by his campaign, are driving much of the higher participation. In Georgia, nearly 165,000 blacks joined the rolls this year, up from 129,878 in 2004. While black women voters outnumber black men, this year more black men registered than black women.
There was a sense of history among early voters who stood in line Tuesday for as long as 90 minutes at the Fulton County Registration and Election headquarters in downtown Atlanta. The building is less than two miles from Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. King preached and planned the civil-rights movement. Twenty miles east is Stone Mountain, the birthplace of the modern Ku Klux Klan.



cont...

[DaytonBuck]

Originally Posted by Tresselbeliever

I look at the world economy as niches. We are the most wealthy nation in the world, as we have the best scientists and businessmen. Yet we've been making terrible investments with our money on things that have net zero or negative returns. Why don't we start to invest in alt energies, which can truly transform the world economy and propel us to the top again? Instead of spending billions on star wars, why don't we find better uses for space technologies? I think we can thrive as long as we go back to being innovative and resourceful regardless of what China or anyone else does.

What would a better use of space technologies be?