Arizona Senator John McCain (official)

[sandgk]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

Looks to me like he's ripping off the Land's End catalog as much as he's ripping off Obama.

There was a spoof "John McCain proof/edits his new web look" piece out there where McCain was side-noting the red and white receding bars ...

"This makes me look like I'm applying for work at TGIF!!"

[Steve19]

I think that McCain is grabbing a clear edge early on to define the debate of ideas. Obama better add something of substance to his "third term argument".

If I were Obama, I would wait until October and then unleash an incredible "which McCain are we to believe" campaign, showing McCain flipping and flopping on various issues. There's a lot out there. Then you catch him in the final debate just like Ronald Reagan did, "uh, John, there you go again."

From the marketing angle, I think the early lead has to go to McCain. He is doing just fine.

[CookyPuss]

Originally Posted by Steve19

I think that McCain is grabbing a clear edge early on to define the debate of ideas. Obama better add something of substance to his "third term argument".

If I were Obama, I would wait until October and then unleash an incredible "which McCain are we to believe" campaign, showing McCain flipping and flopping on various issues. There's a lot out there. Then you catch him in the final debate just like Ronald Reagan did, "uh, John, there you go again."

From the marketing angle, I think the early lead has to go to McCain. He is doing just fine.

Well, McCain's had 3 months and Obama's had 3 in general election mode. I think Obama will keep playing it smart and safe as he did through the primary. He is going to have a pantheon of surrogates to nail McCain at every turn. McCain is between a rock and a hard place on that front. He can't turn to the full spectrum of Republican surrogates to back him as he has to run away from Bush as well. As the Dems roll out their united front, they will have the ability to overwhelm McCain's message. It's also highly likely Obama will overwhelm him with financially to get his message out. Obama's chief job is make people like him and demonstrate he's "safe enough" of a choice.

['BusNative]

Originally Posted by Steve19

I think that McCain is grabbing a clear edge early on to define the debate of ideas. Obama better add something of substance to his "third term argument".

I agree with this. The Obama campaign is doing a bad job of honing in the details of this claim right now. One of the problems, of course, is that the McCain campaign has not released many specific details either. They've gone with the classic: "big government," "tax and spend" and, hilariously, "Jimmy Carter," to which the Obama campaign could point out that the Bush admin has made government huge, has borrowed-and-spent.

If I were Obama, I would wait until October and then unleash an incredible "which McCain are we to believe" campaign, showing McCain flipping and flopping on various issues. There's a lot out there. Then you catch him in the final debate just like Ronald Reagan did, "uh, John, there you go again."

COMPLETELY agree. This is a gimmie, IMO.

From the marketing angle, I think the early lead has to go to McCain. He is doing just fine.

We'll see. The argument is that he should be much further ahead than tied up at this point. If Obama gets anywhere close to the $100 million mark that some are predicting (TheHill.com), it will be hard to consider that Obama has been anything but successful as well.

Originally Posted by MuckFich06

Well, McCain's had 3 months and Obama's had 3 [days] in general election mode.

That's the rub. We'll see how this progresses.

My feeling is that, with so many young voters - the youngest voters dont even remember the first Bush, let alone Reagan - the Carter references and/or the "tax and spend" and "big government" claims will not be nearly as effective as they may have been in past years, especially on the heels of the high-spending Dubya administration.

[rocketman]

Originally Posted by 'BusNative

My feeling is that, with so many young voters - the youngest voters dont even remember the first Bush, let alone Reagan - the Carter references and/or the "tax and spend" and "big government" claims will not be nearly as effective as they may have been in past years, especially on the heels of the high-spending Dubya administration.

Thats what's getting a lot of would-be Republican voters to take a hard look at Obama. Never in the history of this country have we been in more debt, so "fiscal conservatism" as a descriptor for the whole party doesn't seem to work any more.

[MaxBuck]

Originally Posted by rocketman

Never in the history of this country have we been in more debt...

Not really true, when debt is analyzed in light of GDP. Nonetheless, you're right; the GOP has become the "drunken sailor on leave" party when it comes to spending. It's just that all the spending is on stuff that trickles down slowly, if at all, to the citizenry.

[Buckeye86]

I think the picture without the caption would be funnier, but I can't find (didn't feel like looking for) the original.

My own caption would be: McCain in '08, catch the excitement!

[sandgk]

Originally Posted by MaxBuck

the GOP has become the "drunken sailor on leave" party ...

If his slogan read "McCain the drunken sailor on leave party!" it would be a walk-off home run.

Originally Posted by Steve19

I think that McCain is grabbing a clear edge early on to define the debate of ideas. Obama better add something of substance to his "third term argument".
...
From the marketing angle, I think the early lead has to go to McCain. He is doing just fine.

That is a very intriguing observation - especially as it comes from an American overseas perspective.
Now, I may be looking at this through azure tinted glasses, but what I cannot see is where McCain is really doing fine in defining the debate, nor in terms of marketing his message.
For the record, I don't lean on the 3 months vs. 3 days argument. As far as I am concerned, once Obama turned down the heat on Clinton his became a more general election oriented campaign. At best I'd give McCain a 2 month head start in trying to deliver his message - and what astonishes me is how shambolic and incoherent his approach has been.
So, I'm wondering, where is it that McCain has mapped out a current and clear message, where is his marketing of self and message highly effective, or even more effective than Obama's efforts? Let's consider approaches and issues.

• Is he really shaping his own brand when he recasts his web portal with visual metaphors copped from Obama's slick and robust effort?
• Words matter - and delivery matters even more - so is McCain helping shape his image when he chooses the very night Obama goes over the top as the nominee to give the Lime Jello speech? A speech excruciating in it's mantra, again copped from Obama and monotonously inverted, dire in performance, before a midget reflection of the thousands applauding Barack in MN. So dreadful was this that even the right-wing friendly Fox News turns up it's nose at the stench.
• Consistency is key - and McCain has not been consistent. The switch from "Trust The Old Guy" to "Ch-Ch-Ch- Change" in front of the green backdrop in Kenner (not New Orleans as he claimed), is just one instance.

After all what does that do to the prior 3-4 months of pounding on the experience and worthiness mantra? Seems to me that McCain by trying to don the mantle of change is falling into the follower trap in politics.

• Issues & Actions vs. Reaction - Perhaps this is where your impression comes from. It is true that Obama has spent some time in the last week counter-punching McCain - on the economy, on the war in Iraq. But, it is also true that he has taken ample opportunity to highlight the many gaffes that issue from McCain's mouth. (Such as when (again) he states that getting the troops home is not that important).

About the only thing McCain has done to really surprise the Obam camp is the rather large TV buy they made in June ($3 Million by all accounts). Still, the above also means that Obama has to spend more time now defining the benefits of a vote for him and the detriments of a vote for McCain. I see that happening already. Putting McCain on the defensive if you will and really shaping the debate. Which debate still resolves to the war (duh) and the economy (stupid).

Originally Posted by Steve19

If I were Obama, I would wait until October and then unleash an incredible "which McCain are we to believe" campaign, showing McCain flipping and flopping on various issues. There's a lot out there. Then you catch him in the final debate just like Ronald Reagan did, "uh, John, there you go again."

That effort is already underway in some fashion - though I suspect you mean a very broad-based, visual and radio media buy - and for that I agree, keep your powder dry. (If McCain wants to waste funds today, that he may not recapture tomorrow, then let him).

I really look forward to your dispassionate outlook on this Steve. As it stands now Obama's message, image and campaign seem very well defined, change, bring the troops home ASAP from Iraq, right the moral, economic and constitutional errors of the last 8 years. If you are seeing it differently, I'd love to know why.

[BayBuck]

Originally Posted by sandgk

As it stands now Obama's message, image and campaign seem very well defined, change, hope, change, hope, third term, change... hope.

Agreed, very well defined.

[Steve19]

Originally Posted by sandgk

I really look forward to your dispassionate outlook on this Steve. As it stands now Obama's message, image and campaign seem very well defined, change, bring the troops home ASAP from Iraq, right the moral, economic and constitutional errors of the last 8 years. If you are seeing it differently, I'd love to know why.

I'm tired. Wife in DC with Harvard, kid having birthday, lots of teaching. So, I'll ramble on a bit, I hope somewhat coherently.

It's early days in this campaign, but I am very surprised that Obama has been so flat. I expected him to come out after McCain immediately but to "keep his powder dry" on the trust issue until the end. That is, wait and see what he says that is sticking and driving voting in his favor and then show the flip flops. I really think McCain has a real challenge on that one.

But, it's been McCain challenging him to debates, McCain drawing attention away from the issues where Obama is strong and little aggressive marketing the other way. Obama wins strong on ending the war, but last month was the best month so far in the war and elders don't want to leave without a victory, even a shambolic one.

One of the strongest values of older people is the desire to leave a legacy. They see the entry into Iraq as part of an old rubric, a tried and trusted pattern of behavior that won World War II and ended communism. They see it and their role in it very simplistically and ignore those pesky problems like Vietnam in between. In terms of jobs and growth and negotiation, I think that they are more likely to see the world as a zero sum game. Jobs going to India are one less job in America instead of outsourcing an uncompetitive part of the firm in order to save the remaining jobs and the brand. They do not understand the unfolding world economy or have the risk seeking attitudes to grab the entrpreneurial nettle.

Attitudes toward risk and the desire for yesterday is strong in people over 60. Even at my age, every now and then, I just want to get on a plane, fly to Columbus, get in a car and drive to a farm deep in Morgan County or somewhere in the Hocking River valley and just turn off the damn news for six months. I just want to walk into a field on some farm, in between southern Ohio hills, and just hear silence. Real silence. I want to turn all this crap off. I don't want to hear about one more bloody suicide bomber, one more case of child abuse, one more anything. It's unrealistic, it doesn't happen often, but I feel it for the first time in my life.

Remembering the Carter presidency, as most over 50s do (and that is half of the electorate), I think that "Carter second term" handle just might be a bigger problem than Obama's campaign might think. Carter also was cerebral. He was perhaps the best educated American president ever and yet managed to be every bit as ineffective as our first Harvard MBA. And he was cold and distant from the electorate.

There are many differences between Carter and Obama and they fall in favor of Obama. Carter meddled in everything and got stuck into details that he should have allowed others to sort out. Talking in that era meant weakness and he emboldened the Iranians and others.

And that is where I think McCain is going. That is how he will paint Obama. Obama needs to visit Iraq, to get out of the US, to be seen to be strong on foreign knowledge and to have contacts there. He needs a bit of "can do" that we aren't seeing. He needs much more personal contact with working class whites. He needs to throw that beer back in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Louisville and to speak on bread and butter working class issues.

Right now, what we see from here is that McCain is the one on the offensive. I suspect that Obama is waiting to be nominated before defining himself against. The question in my mind is, will McCain have typecast him already with that demographic by the time he gets there and will Obama have learned what he needs to say to convince working class whites that he is their man.

I really hope that we get a chance to see the first debate. In my mind, Obama wins or loses it right there with that demographic. If he comes off like Reagan, McCain is on a hiding to nothing I think.

So, I haven't made up my mind about anything, but I am beginning to see the potential of something that favors McCain, especially if Iraq comes right.

[AKAKBUCK]

Originally Posted by sandgk

I really look forward to your dispassionate outlook on this Steve. As it stands now Obama's message, image and campaign seem very well defined, change, bring the troops home ASAP from Iraq, right the moral, economic and constitutional errors of the last 8 years. If you are seeing it differently, I'd love to know why.

Originally Posted by BayBuck

As it stands now Obama's message, image and campaign seem very well defined, change, hope, change, hope, third term, change... hope..

Yeah, that's kind of the rub... the message might be there, but its short on a lot of "hows."

Sandgk, I think your post is right on the money... in a lot of ways, Barack is, no doubt, a smooth operator.

And as much as McCain is stumbling around trying to be everything to everyone... and... as much as that sounds disjointed.... He knows, as Steve has illustrated that Obama's road to the White House is fraught with landmines...

As Steve mentions... and as crazy as it sounded coming from Senator Clinton knowing her chances were over... she was right. Obama is going to have a problem with middle class whites.

And...

The response from the rest of the Democrats cannot be (as it was in WV, and KY, and all those places), "Look at the dumb racist rednecks voting for the white woman."

Seems ironic of course, and Obama himself will not be perpetuating that image... but... there is danger in some liberal circles of playing the "look how smart our candidate is" game. And, they will do it.

Also, yes, the "Carter" comparison has been described as laughable--this really should not be taken lightly... but... I was actually thinking the same thing before McCain said it. Not as a direct rebuttal to a 3rd term, but Steve is right on, Carter was a bright, well educated guy... and... an ineffectual leader.

Finally... McCain's "disparate" message may not be entirely accidental. I think there might be some thinking that they need to make Obama cover a lot of bases, and as such there might be chinks in the armor. In the coming months, the "How" question will be presented to Obama in response to "Change and hope and out of Iraq and talking with Iran." In the end, he's going to answer the questions... Clinton saw to that, actually she made it close and long enough to ahve Obama spend a good deal of that capital. The argument that McCain should be well ahead at this point is actually quite wishful thinking on the part of the Obama camp, IMO. If the electorate was truly looking for change-- or in fact the "third term" is going to be the big issue-- the default setting should be that the Republican candidate is starting in a hole, and the onus should be on McCain to set himself apart from the Bushies.

Bottom line is, things are bad, and I haven't seen a real, tangible plan to make things better from either one of them.

['BusNative]

With regards to McCain's message - and more specifically his "Thats not Change We Can Believe In" show last week - there is something that really [censored]es me off, though its not something that the McCain campaign created.

When comfronted by a change candidate, a typcial political reaction is the "that's just not realistic" line. I hate that. If the Dubya adminstration has proved anything, its that an administration CAN ABSOLUTELY make a direct impact and in immensely material ways.

So, as Obama is rolling out his specifics and McCain's campaign answers with the common comebacks of "not realistic," "naive," or whatever, lets keep in mind how much Bush has been able to do on his own and/or with a complicit congress (which Obama, should he win, will likely have).

Don't let McCain tell you that change isn't possible - it is. If you dont like that type of change that Obama is offering, don't vote for him. But if you're thinking that Obama - or McCain for that matter - can't deliver on what they are promising, think again. Bush took us into a war that he wanted - a freaking war - and he didn't even have to do it in the correct way, process-wise. Don't think the next president can't end it, or keep us there. Don't think the next president can't go after healthcare or lobbyists or pork-barrel spending or energy independence, etc., etc.

[AKAKBUCK]

Originally Posted by 'BusNative

With regards to McCain's message - and more specifically his "Thats not Change We Can Believe In" show last week - there is something that really [censored]es me off, though its not something that the McCain campaign created.

When comfronted by a change candidate, a typcial political reaction is the "that's just not realistic" line. I hate that. If the Dubya adminstration has proved anything, its that an administration CAN ABSOLUTELY make a direct impact and in immensely material ways.

So, as Obama is rolling out his specifics and McCain's campaign answers with the common comebacks of "not realistic," "naive," or whatever, lets keep in mind how much Bush has been able to do on his own and/or with a complicit congress (which Obama, should he win, will likely have).

Don't let McCain tell you that change isn't possible - it is. If you dont like that type of change that Obama is offering, don't vote for him. But if you're thinking that Obama - or McCain for that matter - can't deliver on what they are promising, think again. Bush took us into a war that he wanted - a freaking war - and he didn't even have to do it in the correct way, process-wise. Don't think the next president can't end it, or keep us there. Don't think the next president can't go after healthcare or lobbyists or pork-barrel spending or energy independence, etc., etc.

Shall we start a "[censored] that [censored]es you off thread?"

['BusNative]

Originally Posted by AKAKBUCK

Shall we start a "[censored] that [censored]es you off thread?"

Can we do that? That would be sweet.

[sandgk]

Originally Posted by AKAKBUCK

Shall we start a "[censored] that [censored]es you off thread?"

And another thing that [censored]es me off ...