The 2008 Presidential Election (official)

[NJ-Buckeye]

CNN.com poll today...

Who do you like best for president?
John McCain .......24% 1116
Mike Huckabee ....12% 564
Hillary Clinton ......24% 1126
Barack Obama .....40% 1891
..............Total Votes: 4697

I found this amusing since it pretty much reflects our polls
See how much time, money and effort we could have saved the nation
if they just came to us for advice

[coastalbuck]

Hillary Clinton ......24% 1126

BILL, goddamnit, get in here!!!!!!

[BrutuStrength]

One point of interest (at least to me) here is that this shows why moderates are rarely picked as party nominations. Thinking back to the runup of '04, I remember many people were lamenting how neither candidate appeared to be moderate... it was the battle of a religious conservative versus a flip-flopping liberal.

Now then, in a race between McCain and Obama, Obama is extremely liberal (as demonstrated by his voting record) and McCain is a reasonable moderate (going so far as to having a record of breaking party ranks), yet Obama leads this poll. The people on the left are very supportive of their candidate and feel energized by him, whereas a fair number of people on the right feel abandoned by their party for having a moderate "maverick" as their likely candidate. This will likely lead to a huge turnout by the left and will possibly lead to a relatively low turnout from the right (reduced/diminished voting by evangelicals and such). Should it play out that way, McCain will need to have a considerable majority of Independent voters swing his way just to have a chance in the election, in addition to peeling off some moderate-minded dem voters.

This obviously still has a ways to go, but I think this is a great example as to why this doesn't happen very often. It could certainly play out that Obama could have something badly go his way during the major campaign, or that McCain is miraculously able to win 80%+ of the independent vote and win over some Reagan Democrats, but as of this point and time, I don't see either happening.

['BusNative]

More early polling suggests Obama has a better chance with McCain

But Which Democrat Can Win It All in November? - WSJ.com

Originally Posted by WSJ

WASHINGTON -- U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, knotted in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, are increasingly sniping over who is most capable of defeating Sen. John McCain in the fall.

As Mr. McCain continues on his seemingly inexorable journey to the Republican nomination, Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are frequently citing polls and carefully selected evidence to demonstrate they match up well against the Arizona senator in a head-to-head battle.

Right now, Mr. Obama has the stronger argument: In nine polls in the past two months that are posted by RealClearPolitics.com, the Illinois senator tops Mr. McCain in eight of them, with several of the most recent showing him winning by more than the survey's margin of error. Mrs. Clinton, by contrast, loses seven of the nine head-to-head contests, but only slightly...

Originally Posted by WSJ

[Flocka]

Originally Posted by 'BusNative

More early polling suggests Obama has a better chance with McCain

But Which Democrat Can Win It All in November? - WSJ.com

Watch out. People get offensive if you tell them a poll says their candidate can't win.

[NJ-Buckeye]

I guess what worries me the most about Obama is the "HOW' that goes along with the rhetoric...

HOW will you do the ideological things you evangelize? I don't need a 'visionary' .. I work with bull[censored]ters every day... I need to know who can EXECUTE and GET IT DONE...

Heck, I can come up with ideologue... but HOW will you get them done? explain those details and you get my vote.. keep just sellin the ideologue and I have no choice but to go with McCain.. at least I semi-believe McCain knows HOW to get it done

I'm not convinced Obama could ever persuade a Republican legislative to convert to his side for a non-partisan solution on anything... I'm naive enuf to think McCain can... at least he has a great rapport with Joe Lieberman and Lieberman can help get it done

[OH10]

Originally Posted by NJ-Buckeye

I guess what worries me the most about Obama is the "HOW' that goes along with the rhetoric...

HOW will you do the ideological things you evangelize? I don't need a 'visionary' .. I work with bull[censored]ters every day... I need to know who can EXECUTE and GET IT DONE...

Heck, I can come with ideologue... but HOW will you get them done? explain those details and you get my vote.. keep just sellin the ideologue and I have no choice but to go with McCain.. at least I semi-believe McCain knows HOW to get it done

I'm not convinced Obama could ever persuade a Republican legislative to convert to his side for a non-partisan solution on anything... I'm naive enuf to think McCain can... at least he has a great rapport with Joe Lieberman and Lieberman can help get it done

If the President of the United States wants to dictate legislation, he's got to be a great bull[censored]ter. Congressman will not support and pass legislation that their constituents do not support. That's why you would see Bush touring the county to sell his tax cuts or to sell the war. He needed to sell the American people on those ideas by using rhetoric, fear, and his great skill of delivering bull[censored].

Obama has that talent as well, probably even moreso. He can bull[censored] as well, if not better, than any Presidential candidate I've seen since I could vote. And that's why he's more likely than Clinton or McCain to get things done. His advisors can draw up the policy, and his job will be to sell it using the bully pulpit. He's the strongest candidate in this race to use the bully pulpit.

McCain can get along well with Congressmen, Democrats and Republicans alike. He can backroom deal with the best of them. But does anyone trust that he can really tour coast-to-coast and sell the American people on the ideas? If he can't do that, he's not going to be able to dictate domestic policy in this country as President.

[Flocka]

Originally Posted by OH10

If the President of the United States wants to dictate legislation, he's got to be a great bull[censored]ter. Congressman will not support and pass legislation that their constituents do not support. That's why you would see Bush touring the county to sell his tax cuts or to sell the war. He needed to sell the American people on those ideas by using rhetoric, fear, and his great skill of delivering bull[censored].

Obama has that talent as well, probably even moreso. He can bull[censored] as well, if not better, than any Presidential candidate I've seen since I could vote. And that's why he's more likely than Clinton or McCain to get things done. His advisors can draw up the policy, and his job will be to sell it using the bully pulpit. He's the strongest candidate in this race to use the bully pulpit.

McCain can get along well with Congressmen, Democrats and Republicans alike. He can backroom deal with the best of them. But does anyone trust that he can really tour coast-to-coast and sell the American people on the ideas. If he can't do that, he's not going to be able to dictate domestic policy in this country as President.

There is a reason the things he saying often sound too good to be true. If he had done anything in his time in the Senate it would be different, but he better hope if he gets elected he can somehow come up with a way to get these things done.

[BuckeyeMike80]

The question for me is will Obama be able to bull[censored] Iran, North Korea and/or China??

[Flocka]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeMike80

The question for me is will Obama be able to bull[censored] Iran, North Korea and/or China??

No, and you he won't bull[censored] Congress either. Only thing he can bull[censored] is the voters.

[OH10]

Originally Posted by bigballin2987

There is a reason the things he saying often sound too good to be true. If he had done anything in his time in the Senate it would be different, but he better hope if he gets elected he can somehow come up with a way to get these things done.

That's the great this about his campaign. He's not saying anything. He keeps alluding to vague ideas of "hope" and "change" without elaborating on how he's going to accomplish anything. It's smart. He's not tying himself down to anything that he can be attacked for yet.

At the end of the day, McCain will have to attack Obama for inexperience - and that will come as a big shock to no one, because it's not a secret.

If he wins the Presidency, he can surround himself with people who are experienced policymakers. Then he can sell their ideas with his great bull[censored]ting ability.

No, and you he won't bull[censored] Congress either. Only thing he can bull[censored] is the voters.

Like I said before... if you bull[censored] the voters, then you have Congress. They respond to the will of their constituents above all else.

The question for me is will Obama be able to bull[censored] Iran, North Korea and/or China??

Well, all he has to do is begin the dialogue to do better than the current administration.

[Flocka]

Originally Posted by OH10

That's the great this about his campaign. He's not saying anything. He keeps alluding to vague ideas of "hope" and "change" without elaborating on how he's going to accomplish anything. It's smart. He's not tying himself down to anything that he can be attacked for yet.

At the end of the day, McCain will have to attack Obama for inexperience - and that will come as a big shock to no one, because it's not a secret.

If he wins the Presidency, he can surround himself with people who are experienced policymakers. Then he can sell their ideas with his great bull[censored]ting ability.



Like I said before... if you bull[censored] the voters, then you have Congress. They respond to the will of their constituents above all else.

Not with the [censored] he is trying to pull. Last night he was talking about paying teachers more, and making sure all kids can go to college, and all these great things that would have done by now if possible. Not only is he saying things he wants to change, he has no track record of changing anything. Can he do it? Who knows. I know I won't be voting for someone with no track record hoping they are the one candidate that somehow has it all figured out.

['BusNative]

Originally Posted by NJ-Buckeye

I guess what worries me the most about Obama is the "HOW' that goes along with the rhetoric...

HOW will you do the ideological things you evangelize? I don't need a 'visionary' .. I work with bull[censored]ters every day... I need to know who can EXECUTE and GET IT DONE...

Heck, I can come up with ideologue... but HOW will you get them done? explain those details and you get my vote.. keep just sellin the ideologue and I have no choice but to go with McCain.. at least I semi-believe McCain knows HOW to get it done

I'm not convinced Obama could ever persuade a Republican legislative to convert to his side for a non-partisan solution on anything... I'm naive enuf to think McCain can... at least he has a great rapport with Joe Lieberman and Lieberman can help get it done

I hear what you're saying, and I don't disagree that this is a legit concern - but couldn't it also be that it's easier to envision McCain enacting what he's been promising in his campaign because he's not materially proposing to change anything?

War - stay (staus quo)
Taxes - keep the Bush tax cut (status quo)
Healthcare - ? (assume status quo?)

The only 'change' I've heard in McCain's speeches is better treatment of returning veterans - a legit campaign promise, but not a material policy change.

It's harder to imagine the HOW when the idealogue is not the status quo.

[NJ-Buckeye]

Originally Posted by 'BusNative

... couldn't it also be that it's easier to envision McCain enacting what he's been promising in his campaign because he's not materially proposing to change anything? ...

It's harder to imagine the HOW when the ideologue is not the status quo.

Then why don't the conservatives like him if he's a status quo - dude?

Where's Millard Filmore when you need him?

AND here's my REAL PET PEEVE

303 million people in this country... and these are the THREE BEST we got? scary

[OH10]

Originally Posted by bigballin2987

Can he do it? Who knows. I know I won't be voting for someone with no track record hoping they are the one candidate that somehow has it all figured out.

He can't do any of that. And to quote Bob Dole, "He knows it, I know it, and the American people know it." But it works a crowd.

I'm not at all trying to sell you on Obama to vote for him. I will be, but I understand why someone would not. I think the concern you present over whether he can get anything done is overstated, however. If he surrounds himself with the right people, he could accomplish a lot. It wouldn't be the lollipops and flowers he's singing now, but we all know that's just rhetoric to whip up a crowd.