The 2008 Presidential Election (official)

[Flocka]

Originally Posted by OH10

He can't do any of that. And to quote Bob Dole, "He knows it, I know it, and the American people know it." But it works a crowd.

I'm not at all trying to sell you on Obama to vote for him. I will be, but I understand why someone would not. I think the concern you present over whether he can get anything done is overstated, however. If he surrounds himself with the right people, he could accomplish a lot. It wouldn't be the lollipops and flowers he's singing now, but we all know that's just rhetoric to whip up a crowd.

The problem I have with him is that since we know he can't change these things, what does he have going for him since he has no track record? He is doing what has been done before but without any record of change. Like I said, maybe he can do it, but this concern paired with his comments on nuclear weapons raises a big red flag for me.

['BusNative]

Originally Posted by NJ-Buckeye

Then why don't the conservatives like him if he's a status quo - dude?

Edit: conservatives don't like the status quo... ask BuckeyeMike

Future Republican Prospects

Originally Posted by Future Republican Prospects Thread

[shetuck]

Originally Posted by NJ-Buckeye

Then why don't the conservatives like him if he's a status quo - dude?...

because, the people standing to his right (in terms of their political leaning) would tell you that he's not a "true" conservative; i.e., just because he's running as a republican it doesn't mean that his views/platform completely jives with traditional conservative ideals.

[OH10]

Originally Posted by bigballin2987

The problem I have with him is that since we know he can't change these things, what does he have going for him since he has no track record? He is doing what has been done before but without any record of change. Like I said, maybe he can do it, but this concern paired with his comments on nuclear weapons raises a big red flag for me.

From my perspective, as a Democrat, I like him because he's electable. If I were a Republican, I would have no reason to vote for him. But I do not share Republican ideals, and I have very little in common with McCain.

[shetuck]

Originally Posted by bigballin2987

The problem I have with him is that since we know he can't change these things, what does he have going for him since he has no track record? He is doing what has been done before but without any record of change. Like I said, maybe he can do it, but this concern paired with his comments on nuclear weapons raises a big red flag for me.

i think his appeal lies in the perception held by younger voters and those (in both political camps) who have, in the last few cycles, felt that their views have not been heard - the disenfranchised voters - that obama, because of his relative youth (in terms of the age of his political career) doesn't have any ties that bind him to the washington old-boy's network.

i think it's a bit naive to think that anybody who is not independently funding their own campaign (and i'm not talking about romney here) is, once they're seated in office, going to be able to completely distance themselves from those who financially and politically supported their election. but, then again, being naive is the hallmark of youth and inexperience, though that's also the stuff with which the process of change is leavened.

[BuckeyeMike80]

Originally Posted by NJ-Buckeye

Then why don't the conservatives like him if he's a status quo - dude?

Where's Millard Filmore when you need him?

AND here's my REAL PET PEEVE

303 million people in this country... and these are the THREE BEST we got? scary

I've said that before. Usually we will have a governor or two who are viable candidates for national election but that hasn't really happened this time around.

Originally Posted by 'BusNative

Edit: conservatives don't like the status quo... ask BuckeyeMike

Future Republican Prospects

damn skippy!

Originally Posted by shetuck

because, the people standing to his right (in terms of their political leaning) would tell you that he's not a "true" conservative; i.e., just because he's running as a republican it doesn't mean that his views/platform completely jives with traditional conservative ideals.

No McCain isn't whatever a "true" conservative is. No one is perfect

But seriously, in this political climate a "true" conservative isn't electable on a national scale and it's time for some people on the right (Ann "give me a cheeseburger dammit" Coulter for one) to get over themselves.....

[MaxBuck]

The Bush approach - take conservative positions socially but support "drunken-sailor" spending to put money in people's pockets out of the public treasury - resonated positively with the electorate until they figured out what a horrible mess it put our economy in. Now there is a backlash, and the unfortunate thing is that folks do not see that Obama has no more fiscal restraint than Bush. People are [censored]ed, they aren't going to take it any more -- and they're going to vote for someone who isn't going to solve their problems.

I'm not sure McCain would solve their problems either, but at least he has a pretty good history of voting to avoid spending. And he gives us the best chance of exiting Iraq without [censored]ing away the few gains we have realized in this ill-conceived venture.

Wow, talk about damning with faint praise. Lesser of two weevils once again.

['BusNative]

So this question really got me thinking:

Originally Posted by Steve19

I have a factual question. I see these questions about Obama's experience. How does it compare to Hillary Clinton.

Originally Posted by Steve19

I know that it is possible that I am just very badly informed, but as First Lady, I understood that didn't have any executive responsibilities. I know that she was given one major responsibility, national healthcare, and she didn't exactly cover herself in glory on that one, right? I also don't know about anything she has done in elected office that demonstrates leadership abilities.

So, my question remains, what has she done that she makes these claims vis-a-vis Obama?

Edit: And, again, I don't have a political agenda in asking that question. I just assume I must be missing something due to the distance.

So I checked each candidate?s (including Hillary) website. Each has an ?issues? tab where they have generated mission statements on various issues:

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/
http://hillaryclinton.com/issues/
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/

FWIW, McCain recognizes 11 issues, Hillary 14 and Obama 21 (though his 21st ?issue? is ?other issues? which includes 6 sub-issues). Obama?s is the only website that lists specific legislation and/or political action that he has put forward or supported in his career, though there are not specifics listed for each of the 21 issues.

Originally Posted by tibor75

Experience is overrated.

Originally Posted by tibor75

Nixon had tons of it. Lincoln had 2 years in the House.

Means nothing.

Originally Posted by methomps

What executive experience does McCain have? Clinton?

Originally Posted by MaxBuck

I'm not arguing that Mrs. Clinton has more substantive experience than Obama, though an argument could conceivably be made that she was closer to a POTUS for 8 years than anyone else during that time...

Originally Posted by MaxBuck

Asfor McCain, no executive experience but much more experience and more substantial track record in Congress than Obama.

Not sure if it?s been posted before, but OnTheIssues.org is a great resource for the comments above regarding experience ?

http://www.ontheissues.org/Barack_Obama.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/Hillary_Clinton.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/John_McCain.htm

You can compare voting records of the candidates. Obama obviously has the least of the three voting records, but that?s clearly due to his tenure. I found the best use of the website is to go over each candidate?s listed record for inconsistencies. And I also discovered some random things that I didn?t know ? like McCain consistently supports embryonic stem cell research, but is against abortion (not sure how you get one without the other...).

Or for example, in March 2005, McCain voted YES for means-testing & restrictions on personal bankruptcy (typical conservative vote) and Obama voted NO. Hillary didn?t vote, but she did vote the republican line in 2001 with a YES vote on restricting rules on personal bankruptcy filings ? the same vote as McCain. Obviously, Obama was not a Senator yet.

I also think that McCain?s post-Iraq voting record is interesting

Voted NO on limiting soldiers' deployment to 12 months. (Jul 2007)
Voted NO on preserving habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees. (Sep 2006)
Voted NO on requiring CIA reports on detainees & interrogation methods. (Sep 2006)
Voted YES on reauthorizing the PATRIOT Act. (Mar 2006)
Voted YES on extending the PATRIOT Act's wiretap provision. (Dec 2005)
Voted NO on restricting business with entities linked to terrorism. (Jul 2005)
Voted NO on restoring $565M for states' and ports' first responders. (Mar 2005)

I know he voted the conservative line on these issues, but he has claimed to be against torture (for obvious reasons) and voting against more money for first responders is interesting to me too...

Anyways, you guys can look for yourselves.

Originally Posted by AKAKBUCK

And... really, we're down to 3 Senators... and... quite honestly, I always leaned more toward the non-"only been congressman" types...

I agree with this ? a voting record isn?t proven leadership ? I wish there was a better resource for all of the bill introduced by each candidate ? I was actually looking for something like that when I stumbled on this website.

Originally Posted by bigballin2987

Yes, but he needs to be very careful about what he says. (Romney and his speech to Economic Club of Detroit immediately come to mind) I recently heard him (Obama) giving a speech in which he was claiming about making sure teachers get paid more, and make sure every child could go to college, etc. These sound like great things, but there is a reason they have done yet. Maybe he has it all figured it out, but it is tough to rely on speculation only.

Obama?s voting record on education:

First Senate bill: increase Pell Grant from $4,050 to $5,100. (Aug 2007)
Sponsored legislations that recruit and reward good teachers. (Sep 2004)
Voted YES on $52M for "21st century community learning centers". (Oct 2005)
Voted YES on $5B for grants to local educational agencies. (Oct 2005)
Voted YES on shifting $11B from corporate tax loopholes to education. (Mar 2005)

['BusNative]

prepare for even more gutter politics...

R.N.C. Snaps Up Domain Names - The Caucus - Politics - New York Times Blog

R.N.C. Snaps Up Domain Names

By Kitty Bennett

Cannotrustclinton.com? clintonisbad.com? At least 25 domain names related to Hillary Rodham Clinton have links to the Republican National Committee: the names were either registered by the R.N.C. last year or showed up on servers the committee uses. Half a dozen seemed to guess at Mrs. Clinton?s eventual running mate, like clintonomalley.com, referring to Gov. Martin O?Malley of Maryland.

The day after Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses, the R.N.C. snapped up at least 20 domains related to his candidacy. Some of them may signal the party?s future strategy: baracknotready.com and norealexperience.com. The party has also begun preemptively registering domains that could be used to attack John McCain, like mccainamigos.com, voteagainstmccain.com, flipflopmccain.com and hatemccain.com (ihatemccain.com was taken.)...

[shetuck]

NYT Op-Ed (Bill Kristol): The Shape of the Race to Come

April 7, 2008
Op-Ed Columnist
The Shape of the Race to Come

By WILLIAM KRISTOL

I?ve spent a fair amount of time the last couple of weeks with conservatives of all ages and leanings. Call it my very own listening tour.

It began with a series of conversations with a group of Weekly Standard subscribers. Then, last week, I had lunch with the only three conservatives in Cambridge, Mass.; participated in an event in New York with the leadership of Vets for Freedom; mixed and mingled with Republicans before a speech in Michigan; and, on Friday, attended a reception for friends of Bill Buckley after his memorial service at St. Patrick's, then discussed politics that evening with conservative college students at Georgetown University.

Apart from accumulating a few frequent flier miles, what do I have to show for my travels? I can report that lots of conservatives and Republicans expect Barack Obama to be our next president.

Some Republicans are grasping at the idea that a long, bitter fight for the Democratic nomination will weaken Obama. Their hopes are about to be dashed. After the results are in from Pennsylvania on April 22, or from Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, it should become clear that Hillary Clinton won't be able to catch Obama in the overall popular vote. Without that possibility, Clinton won?t have a shot at persuading superdelegates to break her way.

So Clinton will probably concede by mid-May. She'll be a gracious loser (they'll hide Bill away somewhere). The weeks that follow will be a Democratic lovefest. And the money will keep pouring in to the Obama campaign, ensuring Democratic dominance of the airwaves in the summer.

[...]

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign will be slow taking off. Fund-raising will continue to be anemic. And his team will need to manage a G.O.P. convention at which Bush and Cheney will have to be loyally hailed for their achievements, even as John McCain tries to turn the page.

It?s going to be a summer of love for Obama, and a tough few months for McCain.

McCain's comeback should begin just after Labor Day, on Sept. 4, with a strong acceptance speech at the Republican convention. The presidential debates will also provide an opportunity. Expectations for Obama will be too high, people will forget he isn?t as good a debater as he is a speaker -- and McCain could well rise to the occasion.

[...]

But a surprising number of Democrats with whom I've spoken expect a McCain victory. One told me he was struck by the current polls showing a dead-even race, suggesting both a surprising openness to McCain among Americans who disapprove of Bush and a striking hesitation among the same voters about Obama.

cont'd...

[shetuck]

Latest General Election Results from Rasmussen

Obama with 87% chance of winning Dem nomination.

Dem candidate with 59% chance of winning General election... This one's a bit strange, imo, because isn't McCain polling better nationally in a head-to-head against either of the Dem nominees?

National

To Win 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Hillary Clinton 12.2
Barack Obama 87.0

To Win 2008 Presidential Election
Democratic Party Candidate 59.2
Republican Party Candidate 40.7

Pennsylvania Primary

To Win Democratic Pennsylvania Primary
Hillary Clinton 72.5
Barack Obama 30.2

North Carolina Primary

To Win Democratic North Carolina Primary
Hillary Clinton 8.0
Barack Obama 92.5

General Election

Florida Presidential Election
Democratic Party Candidate 34.0
Republican Party Candidate 66.1

Michigan Presidential Election
Democratic Party Candidate 70.0
Republican Party Candidate 35.0

Ohio Presidential Election
Democratic Party Candidate 62.0
Republican Party Candidate 40.0

Pennsylvania Presidential Election
Democratic Party Candidate 67.0
Republican Party Candidate 37.9

[BuckeyeMike80]

Originally Posted by shetuck

Latest General Election Results from Rasmussen

Obama with 87% chance of winning Dem nomination.

Dem candidate with 59% chance of winning General election... This one's a bit strange, imo, because isn't McCain polling better nationally in a head-to-head against either of the Dem nominees?

The generic Democrat vs. Republican polling is essentially worthless, especially in states like Ohio and/or Pennsylvania where, unfortunately whichever Dem wins will turn the tide due to race.

Head to head polls are what matter and as you stated, McCain is more than holding his own there, ESPECIALLY in the big swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania...

[shetuck]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeMike80

The generic Democrat vs. Republican polling is essentially worthless, ...

Maybe I should go back and read the fine print at Rasmussen, but... does anyone have any idea how those "generic" polls are conducted?

[AKAKBUCK]

Originally Posted by shetuck

Maybe I should go back and read the fine print at Rasmussen, but... does anyone have any idea how those "generic" polls are conducted?

These aren't exactly polls but more like futures markets.

[BuckeyeMike80]

Originally Posted by shetuck

Maybe I should go back and read the fine print at Rasmussen, but... does anyone have any idea how those "generic" polls are conducted?

Originally Posted by AKAKBUCK

These aren't exactly polls but more like futures markets.

I should have looked at the URL.....