Reds Tidbits (2009 season)

[jlb1705]

What are Brandon Larson & Gookie Dawkins doing these days?

[OmahaBeef]

Originally Posted by jlb1705

What are Brandon Larson & Gookie Dawkins doing these days?

Its funny you should mention that. I was visiting Omaha (where I grew up, although I now live in Cinci) last summer and went to an Omaha Royals game (Kansas City's triple A team). Gookie was playing on the other team, and batting something like 8 or 9. I'm guessing that's why he's in triple A .

One thing he can always hang his hat on, however, is being part of one of the coolest triple play calls.

"Pokey, to Gookie, to Casey -- triple play!"

[Jaxbuck]

PECOTA predictions for the Reds and NL Central

1. Cubs 97-65
2. Brewers 87-75
3. Cards 80-82
4. Reds 79-83
5. Astros 65-97
6. Pirates 64-98

Weakest division in baseball, so we have that going for us.

Reds PECOTA predictions
Record: 79-83
Runs Scored: 788
Runs Allowed: 789
AVG/OBP/SLG: .263/.329/.416

The run differential is projected to be much better than I thought it would be and here is the reason why.

PECOTA for some individual players:
Fast Willy T: 282/336/347 with 48 SB
Bruce: 283/342/509 with 28 HR and 91 RBI's
Votto: 289/370/514 with 27 HR and 90 RBI's
EE: 283/365/493 with 23 and 79

So we need the three young core guys plus BP to all have those kind of years minimum, the defense and pitching to get better and that's just to flirt with .500.

BTW for those who care, Willy T with the above mentioned line has a VORP of .6. Thats right.6. We paid money for a FA to come in and give us .6 IF he improves. Only the Reds.

Anyway, baseball is almost here. Not even the Reds, PEDS and AIDS infected spitters can keep me from enjoying that.


BTW almost forgot. EE's new 2 year deal has a performance bonus for winning a Gold Glove.
Glad to see someone upstairs at least has a sense of humor.

[jlb1705]

Hey, it's called the Golden Glove, not the Golden Arm award. The kid can pick it, it just that after that he'll throw it into the Build-A-Bear stand on the concourse.

I'd be ecstatic if this team got even a sniff of .500 baseball. I think that would be overachievement on the same level as the 1999 team.

[Dryden]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

PECOTA predictions for the Reds and NL Central

1. Cubs 97-65
2. Brewers 87-75
3. Cards 80-82
4. Reds 79-83
5. Astros 65-97
6. Pirates 64-98

What pitching staff is pacing the Brewers to nearly 90 wins? They've got Suppan and ... uh ... Manny Parra? Well, I guess that's 20 wins!

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by Dryden

What pitching staff is pacing the Brewers to nearly 90 wins? They've got Suppan and ... uh ... Manny Parra? Well, I guess that's 20 wins!

Every year I find a lot of things I question when I see their predictions and every year once the dust settles I'm amazed at how consistently accurate they are.

I think they have our offense way too high but time will tell.

As far as the Brew Crew goes I think they are projecting that win total based on the offense scoring enough to overcome a pretty blah rotation. They don't have any crazy projections for their staff.
Dave Bush to win 11 is their top guy by wins
Gallardo and Bush ar ethe top two by VORP

[Dryden]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

Every year I find a lot of things I question when I see their predictions and every year once the dust settles I'm amazed at how consistently accurate they are.

Could be the case, but pegging the Brew Crew to 87 wins jumped out at me. They just finished their best season where Ben Sheets actually made more than 20 starts and they started CC Sabathia every single day for a month, and they still only won 90 games, and they don't have either of those two for this season.

Well, I suppose not running Gagne out there is good for another 8-10 wins.

[Jaxbuck]

BP list of breakout hitters for 2009. Two Reds getting some love.

Edwin Encarnacion, Reds, 3B (.283/.365/.493, 3.3 WARP, 38% Breakout Rate)
Jay Bruce, Reds, RF (.283/.342/.509, 3.7 WARP, 36% Breakout Rate)
Despite last year's spiking strikeout rate, a result of becoming too pull-happy, the 26-year-old Encarnacion has put up consistent .275-.280 EqAs over the past three years. Nonetheless, his managers have beaten him like a red-headed stepchild due to lousy play at the hot corner: 17 runs below average last year, 37 below for his career. The Reds' crowded outfield and the presence of Joey Votto at first base preclude a much-needed position shift, so Encarnacion would benefit from a change of scenery, but even if that doesn't happen, PECOTA remains confident that he can rake, foreseeing career highs in both on-base and slugging percentages. Meanwhile, Bruce topped our prospect list last year and hit .400/.500/.636 in his first two weeks after being recalled around Memorial Day. He struggled mightily thereafter (.232/.282/.425), and was eaten alive by lefties (.190/.263/.299), but PECOTA strongly believes he can overcome that drastic platoon split, forecasting a .257/.313/.468 line against southpaws.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

BP list of breakout hitters for 2009. Two Reds getting some love.

. . . . and we're still waiting for Encarnacion to "break out." I think I'm done waiting at this point, although every season it seems like there's a late bloomer that finally lives up to expectations 5 years past due.

[jlb1705]

The whole time we've been waiting for Edwin, he hasn't really been that bad on the whole - just not a star.

[buckeyefool]

Just a heads up, tickets go on sale fro some games tommorow at 9am

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by sepia5

. . . . and we're still waiting for Encarnacion to "break out." I think I'm done waiting at this point, although every season it seems like there's a late bloomer that finally lives up to expectations 5 years past due.

EE is 26 years old. He is one year older than Votto. EE has 3 full MLB seasons under his belt, Votto has 1. So instead of learning and developing in the minors he's been thrown to the wolves at the MLB level and still done a very respectable job. Was he supposed to be a star at 21?

These are the types of comments that I think of when I predict EE to become the next Cincinatti whipping boy.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

EE is 26 years old. He is one year older than Votto. EE has 3 full MLB seasons under his belt, Votto has 1. So instead of learning and developing in the minors he's been thrown to the wolves at the MLB level and still done a very respectable job. Was he supposed to be a star at 21?

These are the types of comments that I think of when I predict EE to become the next Cincinatti whipping boy.

I just find these repeated predictions that he'll break out to be redundant at this point. This is the fourth season that I can go out and pick up a pre-season guide and see Encarnacion's name under the "sleeper," or "poised for a breakout" heading. I'm not buying it. His problem is not talent--he clearly has that. His problem is primarily plate discipline, IMO, and he's subject to some of the most drastic slumps and hot streaks I've ever seen out of a Red, which isn't necessarily a bad thing so long as the hot streaks win out.

As far as his performance so far in 3 full seasons:

'06 - .276/15/72
'07 - .289/16/76
'08 - .251/26/68

Those are fine numbers for a middle infielder, but for a 3-bagger, not so much. And it's not like he's Brooks Robinson over there with the glove, either (not suggesting he's not a serviceable defensive third baseman, just that, unlike someone like Scott Rolen, whose power numbers are now down, he doesn't make up for it with incredible defense).

I know he's "only" 26, but the guy did spend 5 seasons in the minors before coming up. It's not, as you say, like he got drafted and immediately thrown to the wolves (oh, and he's spent time in the minors each of the seasons he's been in the big leagues, as well--I think we all know why). Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying his window is closed, but if I were picking guys to break out this season, Encarnacion would not be at the top of my list. It could happen. Many had given up on Joe Crede until the season he had two years ago. I'm just not counting on it.

As far as being a Cincy whipping boy, I'm not sure who else you're referring to, but I do know that not too many small market teams are going to succeed when they get Encarnacion-esque production out of the hot corner.

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by sepia5

Those are fine numbers for a middle infielder, but for a 3-bagger, not so much.

2008 NL 3rd basemen: 265/335/441
2008 EE: 251/340/466

He gives the Reds average offensive production for a NL third baseman now at the age of 26.

This is exactly why I say he'll be the next Reds whipping boy. People have an opinion of him (a negative one at that) that isn't supported by facts. He is also a very quiet kid who doesn't outwardly look like he "cares" when he screws up. Marty and company have lost Dunn to trash for these very same type of things, they will now turn their attention to EE. Likewise, the hordes of people who form their opinions based soley on what they hear the Reds media members say will join right along.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

2008 NL 3rd basemen: 265/335/441
2008 EE: 251/340/466

I'm confused. What are these stats referring to? Are they some sort of cumulative numbers? I listed his 2008 numbers above.

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

He gives the Reds average offensive production for a NL third baseman now at the age of 26.

Well, I'd have to fact check that, b/c, again, I'm not sure what your numbers are referring to. I'd also be interested to see how many small market teams succeed with "average" production from their 3rd bagger. Like I said, it's perfectly fine to have defensive minded middle infielders that are going to go .265/15-20/75, but you generally aren't going to win when your 3rd bagger does that. Maybe part of Encarnacion's problem of perception is that he was slightly over-hyped? I dunno, but I don't see how you can say that after having been a professional since 18, and in the big leagues now for 3 full seasons, he's lived up to expectations. I fully hope he gets there, and he may well still, but I'm yet to see anything that leads me to believe he can sustain success at the plate over the course of a full season. I hope I'm wrong, b/c I'm a big Reds fan, but I don't think I am to date.

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

This is exactly why I say he'll be the next Reds whipping boy. People have an opinion of him (a negative one at that) that isn't supported by facts. He is also a very quiet kid who doesn't outwardly look like he "cares" when he screws up. Marty and company have lost Dunn to trash for these very same type of things, they will now turn their attention to EE. Likewise, the hordes of people who form their opinions based soley on what they hear the Reds media members say will join right along.

I guess I missed out on the whole Reds-fans-turning-players-into-whipping-boys phenomenon. Granted, I don't live in Cincy anymore, but my feeling is that Cincinnati is and always has been a baseball town, but it is a franchise that's been pretty badly mismanaged for a while now. Prospects often haven't panned out and the team is a perennial celler dweller right now. Knowledgeable, passionate fans aren't going to be forgiving forever.

Marty is one of the great play-by-players of all time, IMO. I don't always agree with him, but I've always thought he does a nice job of balancing homerism with reality and insight.

As far as Dunn goes, I always had mixed feelings about him. On the one hand, I was appauled by the strike outs. On the other, the Phillies are doing just fine with Ryan Howard. In the end though, as a small market team, I'd like to see the Reds adopt the model that other successful small market teams have adopted in the past (ie, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay). Great pitching first, draft well, play great defense, manufacture runs, get good at bats from the 1-8 spots, and either take risks and sign young talent below market value before proven, or trade that talent for prospects when you can't afford it. I have no idea how Adam Dunn, as a defensive liability that strikes out 200 times a year and demands $10-15 million per, fits into that plan.