Reds Tidbits (2009 season)

[Bucky Katt]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

2008 NL 3rd basemen: 265/335/441
2008 EE: 251/340/466

He gives the Reds average offensive production for a NL third baseman now at the age of 26.

This is exactly why I say he'll be the next Reds whipping boy. People have an opinion of him (a negative one at that) that isn't supported by facts. He is also a very quiet kid who doesn't outwardly look like he "cares" when he screws up. Marty and company have lost Dunn to trash for these very same type of things, they will now turn their attention to EE. Likewise, the hordes of people who form their opinions based soley on what they hear the Reds media members say will join right along.

Originally Posted by sepia5

I'm confused. What are these stats referring to? Are they some sort of cumulative numbers? I listed his 2008 numbers above.

BA/OBP/SLG

For an average offensive players, I'd prefer they at least be average in he field. I'd be more okay with EE's defensive issues if he were putting up better numbers offensively.

I guess I missed out on the whole Reds-fans-turning-players-into-whipping-boys phenomenon. Granted, I don't live in Cincy anymore, but my feeling is that Cincinnati is and always has been a baseball town, but it is a franchise that's been pretty badly mismanaged for a while now. Prospects often haven't panned out and the team is a perennial celler dweller right now. Knowledgeable, passionate fans aren't going to be forgiving forever.

Marty is one of the great play-by-players of all time, IMO. I don't always agree with him, but I've always thought he does a nice job of balancing homerism with reality and insight.

As far as Dunn goes, I always had mixed feelings about him. On the one hand, I was appauled by the strike outs. On the other, the Phillies are doing just fine with Ryan Howard. In the end though, as a small market team, I'd like to see the Reds adopt the model that other successful small market teams have adopted in the past (ie, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay). Great pitching first, draft well, play great defense, manufacture runs, get good at bats from the 1-8 spots, and either take risks and sign young talent below market value before proven, or trade that talent for prospects when you can't afford it. I have no idea how Adam Dunn, as a defensive liability that strikes out 200 times a year and demands $10-15 million per, fits into that plan.

The treatment Dunn got was pretty brutal. I wasn't his biggest fan, but could still recognize that he was the best run producer on the club. His defense did suck.

And the problem with building a team in the style of the other other small market clubs is that the Reds build a [censored]ing launching pad of a ballpark. They can build around small-ball all they want, but routine flyballs are still going to end up in the seats because of the size and configuration of the park.

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by sepia5

I'm confused. What are these stats referring to? Are they some sort of cumulative numbers? I listed his 2008 numbers above.

That stat line was the BA/OBP/SLG for the average NL 3rd baseman for 2008. I assure you they are correct, I would link it but its premium.

EE's line was for the same criteria for the same year. He provides average to slightly above average offense for 3rd base in the NL. Middle infielders have nothing to do with it.

If you want to criticize him because he isn't an elite player yet then I guess that is your perogative.

I'd also be interested to see how many small market teams succeed with "average" production from their 3rd bagger. Like I said, it's perfectly fine to have defensive minded middle infielders that are going to go .265/15-20/75, but you generally aren't going to win when your 3rd bagger does that.

Its NL average so some may hve been better some were worse. The point is he isn't putting up middle infielder numbers or whatever else. Apples to apples, EE to other NL 3B he is average or slightly above.

Maybe part of Encarnacion's problem of perception is that he was slightly over-hyped? I dunno, but I don't see how you can say that after having been a professional since 18, and in the big leagues now for 3 full seasons, he's lived up to expectations. I fully hope he gets there, and he may well still, but I'm yet to see anything that leads me to believe he can sustain success at the plate over the course of a full season. I hope I'm wrong, b/c I'm a big Reds fan, but I don't think I am to date.

I agree that some feel he was overhyped or hasn't lived up to the billing or whatever but thats why I showed the facts of the matter. He's still very young and has been giving us average offense at 3B, I'm saying lets keep the expectations in check and not write off a 26 year old kid just yet.

I guess I missed out on the whole Reds-fans-turning-players-into-whipping-boys phenomenon. Granted, I don't live in Cincy anymore, but my feeling is that Cincinnati is and always has been a baseball town, but it is a franchise that's been pretty badly mismanaged for a while now. Prospects often haven't panned out and the team is a perennial celler dweller right now. Knowledgeable, passionate fans aren't going to be forgiving forever.

Marty is one of the great play-by-players of all time, IMO. I don't always agree with him, but I've always thought he does a nice job of balancing homerism with reality and insight.

As far as Dunn goes, I always had mixed feelings about him. On the one hand, I was appauled by the strike outs. On the other, the Phillies are doing just fine with Ryan Howard. In the end though, as a small market team, I'd like to see the Reds adopt the model that other successful small market teams have adopted in the past (ie, Minnesota, Oakland, Tampa Bay). Great pitching first, draft well, play great defense, manufacture runs, get good at bats from the 1-8 spots, and either take risks and sign young talent below market value before proven, or trade that talent for prospects when you can't afford it. I have no idea how Adam Dunn, as a defensive liability that strikes out 200 times a year and demands $10-15 million per, fits into that plan.

How Dunn fits now with the Reds isn't the point. Marty rode him like a rented mule the past few years.

The problem I had was that with all the other piles of suck on the team the past decade, specifically the historically bad pitching, Marty has convinced a lot of people the losing was because Dunn struck out too much. Its absolutely asinine.

Dunn was the one player the Reds have had lately that did his job very well yet he was crucified for the K's, not running to his position etc. The focus on LF defense to me is just a joke. I understand the guy wasn't very good but this teams fan base has turned this into a crusade for good LF defense and thats just dumb. Sure its nice to have it if you can but LF isn't a premium defensive position by any stretch of the imagination. It's perfectly fine to stach your slugger in LF or 1B or both if you have 2.

Anyway, moving on from that. EE is better than people give him credit for and still plenty young enough to breakout. I just hope he doesn't get the Dunn treatment once the losing starts. However, when Marty needs a whipping boy I fear EE will be the one.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Bucky Katt

And the problem with building a team in the style of the other other small market clubs is that the Reds build a [censored]ing launching pad of a ballpark. They can build around small-ball all they want, but routine flyballs are still going to end up in the seats because of the size and configuration of the park.

Yea, the ballpark is a real problem with that model. Frankly, though, I think it's the only way a small market team can win in this day and age. The Red's won't be able to compete with the Cubs and Cards if they don't adopt the model. The Brewers have a laughable ballpark, and yet they've been able to adopt the model, at least in part. I know they didn't quite make it last season, but the b/c Sheets stayed healthy and they managed their farm system well (Fielder, Braun, etc.), they were able to stay close and make the big free agent move to try to get them over the top, a al what Jim Bowden used to pull off when we were in contention (Kevin Mitchell, comes to mind).

[Jaxbuck]

The only thing that was wrong with the previous model was we had no pitching and wretched defense. There is absolutely nothing that says you can't have a 3 run homer oriented offense with good pitching and defense. The Orioles and Earl Weaver did it for years.

Good offense (regardless of style) and good run prevention are not mutually exclusive. The current regime seems to think that you must sacrifice one for the other and that one certain style of offensive baseball is the "right" way to play. That type of rigid thinking isn't good for any organization, just ask our friends up north.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

That stat line was the BA/OBP/SLG for the average NL 3rd baseman for 2008. I assure you they are correct, I would link it but its premium.

EE's line was for the same criteria for the same year. He provides average to slightly above average offense for 3rd base in the NL. Middle infielders have nothing to do with it.

If you want to criticize him because he isn't an elite player yet then I guess that is your perogative.





Its NL average so some may hve been better some were worse. The point is he isn't putting up middle infielder numbers or whatever else. Apples to apples, EE to other NL 3B he is average or slightly above.




I agree that some feel he was overhyped or hasn't lived up to the billing or whatever but thats why I showed the facts of the matter. He's still very young and has been giving us average offense at 3B, I'm saying lets keep the expectations in check and not write off a 26 year old kid just yet.




How Dunn fits now with the Reds isn't the point. Marty rode him like a rented mule the past few years.

The problem I had was that with all the other piles of suck on the team the past decade, specifically the historically bad pitching, Marty has convinced a lot of people the losing was because Dunn struck out too much. Its absolutely asinine.

Dunn was the one player the Reds have had lately that did his job very well yet he was crucified for the K's, not running to his position etc. The focus on LF defense to me is just a joke. I understand the guy wasn't very good but this teams fan base has turned this into a crusade for good LF defense and thats just dumb. Sure its nice to have it if you can but LF isn't a premium defensive position by any stretch of the imagination. It's perfectly fine to stach your slugger in LF or 1B or both if you have 2.

Anyway, moving on from that. EE is better than people give him credit for and still plenty young enough to breakout. I just hope he doesn't get the Dunn treatment once the losing starts. However, when Marty needs a whipping boy I fear EE will be the one.

Unfortunately, I had to rely on the MLB.com package last season, and I got Welch and Grant (just listen to those guys and you'll feel fortunate that you have Marty). So I hadn't heard about Marty laying into Dunn. And of course, as I said, I don't live in the Cincy/Dayton area anymore, so I didn't get the flavor of the city in that way, either. I agree that the Reds had MUCH bigger problems than Dunn's SOs last year. That said, Dunn was making the big money for a small market team, so the bar is going to be much higher.

And I totally disagree that you can just disregard how poorly the left fielder plays the position. I lived in St. Pete for the past 3 baseball seasons, and I can tell you that the #2 improvement that team made in order to get to the playoffs and eventually the World Series was in the field, defensively, and it payed big dividends (#1 would have to be the improved bullpen, BTW). Good defense is a must, IMO. Is a strong left field as important as a strong SS or CF? No, but if you've got a weak spot, it will get exploited and it will hurt you.

And I also think, fair or unfair, the SOs were just a point of contention with Dunn and the fans. He crossed into veteran territory, he was the guy making the big bucks, and I think plate discipline is largely--and for the most part rightly--deemed something you can work at. And frankly, all the smoke about him being a guy who wasn't that driven probably didn't help either. I generally don't buy into that stuff, but when other GMs and scouts start talking about it, well, maybe those perceptions weren't entirely without foundation.

That said, we all know that if the Reds had been winning, Dunn's D and SOs wouldn't have been an issue with the fans. But then again, which came first, the chicken or the egg?

As far as EE goes, I think you're kind of taking what I've been saying out of context. My point was that I wouldn't bank on him being a "break out" player. We'll find out in the next year or two. 26, 27, 28--that's generally the prime of a ball player's career. I'm yet to see anything that leads me to believe he's going to break out. I see an undisciplined hitter that has to get sent back down to Louisville every year b/c he gets in prolonged slumps he can't get out of, who puts up mediocre or (generously) average numbers, and who is, frankly, a below average 3rd baseman. At the $450k or whatever it is he's making now, I can deal with it and even say he's a comparable bargain. At $4 or 5 million, I'd be singing a different tune. In any event, I don't see a break out coming. Maybe you do, and I certainly hope you're right. Anyway, good conversation, Jax. I hope you're right about EE and I hope the Reds can finally return to their former winning ways. I long for the days of Joe Oliver, Chris Sabo, and Jose Rijo.

[sepia5]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

The only thing that was wrong with the previous model was we had no pitching and wretched defense. There is absolutely nothing that says you can't have a 3 run homer oriented offense with good pitching and defense. The Orioles and Earl Weaver did it for years.

True, but the economic structure of baseball has drastically changed since the day of Earl Weaver. You can't spend $40 million on payroll and expect to compete with the teams spending $120-200 million in this day and age without a sound plan. Middle relief, strong defense, speed, plate discipline, and good young talent can come comparatively cheap. 45 HR power and 120 RBIs not so much.

[BuckeyeMike80]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

The only thing that was wrong with the previous model was we had no pitching and wretched defense. There is absolutely nothing that says you can't have a 3 run homer oriented offense with good pitching and defense. The Orioles and Earl Weaver did it for years.

But they also had something called the "Oriole Way" which meant they drafted well and developed those players throughout their farm system....

the Reds don't do that as religiously as the Orioles did (which is part of the reason why I don't follow them anymore, that POS Angelos has completely disintegrated their minor system and alienated Cal too) and it will take a while to build the system the way the Twins and Devil Rays have....

[Jaxbuck]

Sepia: I agree defense is a must but LF defense isn't. Give me the bat and stick him in LF. People have turned Dunns LF defense into something much bigger than it ever needed to be.

As far as the K's go thats another topic completely. Suffice it to say I am one that believes all outs are bad, K's have nomore inherent badness in them than anything else.

Dunns OBP showed he had tremendous plate discipline, moreso than anyone else on the team actually. His K's were the result of having a hole in swing big enough to drive a truck through. Again, as with the LF defense bugaboo, its what sluggers do. They take big ass swings to hit HR's and as a result K a lot.

Originally Posted by sepia5

True, but the economic structure of baseball has drastically changed since the day of Earl Weaver. You can't spend $40 million on payroll and expect to compete with the teams spending $120-200 million in this day and age without a sound plan. Middle relief, strong defense, speed, plate discipline, and good young talent can come comparatively cheap. 45 HR power and 120 RBIs not so much.

Agree with everything but would point out you can develop your own young cheap power just as easy as anything else. When we had it we failed to give it any pitching or defense so we had a terrible team. Lots of Reds fans have somehow come to equate a power oriented team with losing because of this period. I couldn't disagree more with that.

Lousy pitching you can equate with losing. Having the best run scoring team in the NL with the worst pitching in the NL and blaming the losing on the offense is just [censored]ing ignorant but its a common theme I hear all the time from Reds fans.

Originally Posted by BuckeyeMike80

But they also had something called the "Oriole Way" which meant they drafted well and developed those players throughout their farm system....

the Reds don't do that as religiously as the Orioles did (which is part of the reason why I don't follow them anymore, that POS Angelos has completely disintegrated their minor system and alienated Cal too) and it will take a while to build the system the way the Twins and Devil Rays have....

Have you ever heard me say anything contrary to those sound fundamental principles? An organization like the Reds MUST build from within, they are never going to outspend anyone and frankly you shouldn't ever have to. Most FA contracts are for older guys who are on the downside of their career. Teams are by and large overpaying for the privilage of having these guys.

I would give a nut for a decade or so of the old "Oriole Way". Sick part is we would have had it all through the 2000's if management could have put together even an average pitching staff.

Making good efficient decisions is a must for a team like the Reds. Signing the likes of Willie Taveras to a FA contract when you have cheaper younger players under control that can do the same if not better job isn't one of those type of decisions. I'm not so sure trying to play small ball for small ball's sake in a park like GAB is a very smart one either.

[Jaxbuck]

Classic stuff from Beyond the Box Scores graph contest

[EDDIE GGGG27]

Reds are 1-0 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Volquez pitched 3 scoreless, Cueto pitched 3 scoreless ,and Homer pitched 1 scoreless.

[EDDIE GGGG27]

Tour of Chris Dickerson's spring training home:

YouTube - Chris Dickerson's spring training video...

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by EDDIE GGGG27

Reds are 1-0 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Volquez pitched 3 scoreless, Cueto pitched 3 scoreless ,and Homer pitched 1 scoreless.

But all the offense came via the longball. Just two meaningless rally killers. No small ball at all.

I thought that was supposed to be a bad thing? Are you telling me it doesn't matter how we score runs as long as the pitching allows less than we score? Is that too much to infer from one spring training game?

[schwab]

My opinion of the long ball, as it is.. We could sign 8 starters based on their defense, with none of them capable of more than 20 homeruns. Field that team, put them in the Great American Launching Pad, and we could end up with more than 1 with 30+. I think Phillips, Bruce, and Votto all end up 25+ plus this season, and 30 wouldn't surprise me out of any of them.

Build the team around pitching, defense, and more pitching, and let the park make stat monsters out of anyone who is worthy. We do not lack talent in that lineup, it is just mostly pretty young. Solid line drives have been known to end up as cheap homers, so lets go with some more of that.

And pitching, of course.

[Jaxbuck]

Originally Posted by schwab

And pitching, of course.

and don't forget pitching

[schwab]

Originally Posted by Jaxbuck

and don't forget pitching

I can't believe I forgot pitching.

So, I guess it looks like we are world series bound now, after putting a hurt on the Rays today.

Hope Springs Eternal, eh?