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CFB Contenders and Pretenders (Week 4)

Ohio State - The Buckeyes (4-0; #1 AP; #1 CP) have played sloppy ball (10 turnovers) and relied on big plays (9 offensive TDs of 20+ yards; 3 defensive TDs) to score points. Their schedule has been mediocre at best (opponents' combined record is 7-9). But they are still the defending champions and until someone actually knocks them off they are still CONTENDERS.

Michigan State - The Spartans' (4-0; #2 AP; #2 CP) reputation is based on their seemingly big win over Oregon (31-28) at home in week two. That win has since been tainted by Utah, who destroyed Oregon (62-20) at Autzen Stadium. The rest of the Spartans' resume' consists of closer than expected wins over Western Michigan (37-24), Central Michigan (30-10), and Air Force (35-21). Michigan State's vaunted defense ranks 46th in scoring (20.8 ppg) and 77th in yards (395.8 ypg). Despite the lofty poll rankings, this MSU team has taken a step back from its highly successful seasons in 2013 (12-1 record; #3 AP; #3 CP) and 2014 (11-2 record; #5 AP; #5 CP). Sparty is a PRETENDER that will eventually be exposed, perhaps as early as October 17th when they take a trip to Ann Arbor.

Ole Miss - Throw out the blow out wins against Tennessee-Martin (76-3) and Fresno State (73-21) to open the season. In week three, the Rebels (4-0; #3 AP; #5 CP) went into Tuscaloosa and defeated the Crimson Tide (43-37), which is one of the biggest wins for any team so far this year. Granted, the victory over Alabama was somewhat fluky, and Ole Miss followed it up with an unimpressive showing against lowly Vanderbilt (27-16), but for now the Rebels are CONTENDERS.

Alabama, Georgia - These two SEC powerhouses square off this Saturday. The Crimson Tide (3-1; #13 AP; #13 CP) already have one loss and if they lose another they're done. If the Tide can hold off the Dawgs they still have a chance for the playoffs. Georgia (4-0; #8 AP; #6 CP) is undefeated but they need a marquee win to impress the pollsters and the playoff committee, and this looks like their one and only shot at a big-time opponent before the conference title game. The winner of this game is a CONTENDER, the loser can watch the playoffs on television.

Florida - The Gators (4-0; #25 AP; #23 CP) are undefeated but own single-score wins over East Carolina (31-24), Kentucky (14-9), and Tennessee (28-27), not exactly a Murderer's Row of the college football world. Next up is Ole Miss, the #3 team in the country. Florida will officially enter the PRETENDER category some time around 10:00 o'clock Saturday night.

Louisiana State - Leonard Fournette has been very impressive. The rest of the team? Not so much. If Fournette can continue averaging 200+ yards per game then the Bayou Bengals (3-0; #9 AP; #8 CP) have a shot to be the SEC playoff representative. Good luck with that, with Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A+M left on the slate and Les Miles chewing grass on the sidelines. Nevertheless, LSU has still shown enough to be considered a CONTENDER in an SEC that is in a state of flux right now.

Texas A+M - The Aggies (4-0; #14 AP; #15 CP) are currently undefeated, but that should change sometime during the next three weeks as they face #21 Mississippi State, #13 Alabama, and #3 Ole Miss in rapid succession. If one (or more) or that trio doesn't sink the Aggies' title hopes, then #9 LSU will get their shot in the final regular season contest. Texas A+M usually starts out strong and then fades as the games begin to mean something, which is the hallmark of a PRETENDER.

Texas Christian - A six-point win against a Minnesota team that boasts a pair 3-point wins against MAC bottom dwellers. A miraculous last-second fourth-down deflected-pass win against a mediocre Texas Tech squad. A defense that has giving up 89 points in the last two games. The Horned Frogs (4-0; #4 AP; #3 CP) have nothing of note on their schedule until the final two weeks of the season when they face off with #15 Oklahoma and #5 Baylor. TCU has already been exposed as a PRETENDER living off of last season's reputation, we're just waiting for that first loss to make it official.

Baylor - Yes the Bears (4-0; #5 AP; #4 CP) ring up points like a video game, but so would The Little Sisters of the Poor if they played that Charmin-soft schedule. No one with a pulse shows up until mid-November when #15 Oklahoma, #20 Okie State, and #4 TCU finally appear. Will one of those teams send a weepy-eyed Art Briles to a post-game press conference whining about poor officiating or brand names or the composition of the playoff committee? Let's hope so, for the sake of the entire college football universe. There's no way these perennial PRETENDERS belong in a big-boy playoff.

Oklahoma - Big Game Bob. 'Nuff said. PRETENDER.

Notre Dame, Clemson - These two powder puffs battle for ACC supremacy (sort of) this Saturday. Both will certainly fade by the end of the year, but the survivor of this epic pillow fight will be a CONTENDER for at least one more week.

Florida State - Wake me up when the Seminoles (3-0; #11 AP; #9 CP) play a ranked team, which might be January at this rate. The Noles actually have a good chance to repeat as a playoff contestant, mainly because they don't really play anybody who has a legitimate shot to beat them. They also have a decent chance of going 13-0 and being left out of the mix in favor of one-loss teams who actually play in a Power conference. UNDECIDED.

UCLA, Utah - Someone has to represent the PAC in the playoffs, right? It might as well be one of these schools, both of whom have decent resumes at this point in the season. Each has a quality win over a ranked opponent and the rest of the conference looks like hot garbage. The Bruins (4-0; #7 AP; #10 CP) and the Utes (4-0; #10 AP; #12 CP) face off at Utah in the penultimate (or second-last, for all you Harvard of the West fans) game of the regular season and each could still be undefeated at that point. Let's call them both CONTENDERS for now.

Northwestern - Okay, so the B1G nerds (4-0; #16 AP; #17 CP) do have wins over the PAC nerds (Stanford) and the ACC nerds (Duke), both pretty decent teams. They also have a 5-point win over Ball State, which doesn't bode well for the future. The rest of the schedule looks fairly.... Hey, wait a minute. Just what in the Hell am I doing here? This is North-Freaking-Western we're talking about! They will never, ever, EVER be a contender for anything other than the SAT championship. PRETENDERS all the way.

Oregon - The Ducks have always been PRETENDERS, they just decided to show their true colors early this season (har har). 7,280 uniform combinations, zero national championships.
 
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It's funny about Michigan State. Yes they're playing good ball and they look more baked than we do at this point in the season. If we played them tomorrow I'd have us losing -- but we don't play them tomorrow, and I think (as good as they are, and I believe they're the second most capable/dangerous team in the B1G) they've absolutely been over-hyped. I think they're a PRETENDER as well, in the grand scheme of things. Time will tell.

Ole Miss, Bama/Georgia, and particularly LSU are all compelling. I would love another championship or playoff shot against LSU. The road to absolute redemption is paved with teams from the SEC, bring them on.
 
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I would love another championship or playoff shot against LSU.
I was thinking the exact same thing.

Right now it looks like Ohio State, Florida State, SEC champ, and PAC champ have the best shot at making the playoffs, although I could see two SEC teams getting in under the right circumstances (undefeated Ole Miss and undefeated UGa make the SEC championship and play a close game, then they both get invited to the playoffs).
 
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I could see two SEC teams getting in under the right circumstances (undefeated Ole Miss and undefeated UGa make the SEC championship and play a close game, then they both get invited to the playoffs).

I don't think the committee takes a team coming off a CCG with a loss no matter which conference it is. Almost every projection that suggests one conference getting two teams into the playoff has those teams coming out of the same division, either the Big Ten East or SEC West.

A more plausible scenario to me is Ole Miss & Alabama both winning out, so Alabama slips in as the 3rd or 4th seed. If Alabama shows growth over the next two months they'll get a pass for a September loss because of the turnovers and fluke nature of some of the Rebels big plays.

Discussion is probably moot though until Notre Dame has one loss, probably even two.
 
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FSU = pretender
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Some people seem to forget that Alleybammy was picked to win the sec and also picked to be in the play-offs (they are not Auburn who was way over rated to start), so don’t count them out just yet. Just because they lost to an Ole Miss team when they had what --five turn-over’s? I think they can get it done at Georgia and that is a good thing for the Bulldogs.

Georgia; whom I would like to see the Buckeye’s play, should still win the sec-E and have a rematch with alleybammy in the sec CCG, we all know in rematches you seldom lose twice.

Unlike Clarity (sorry ole man)) but I don’t wanna play Lucky fen’ State, I personally don’t even wanna be in the same stadium when they do play, can’t stand anything about them-- other than my granddaughter who just graduated from their last spring (never said, everyone in my family was smart!!).
 
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I don't think the committee takes a team coming off a CCG with a loss no matter which conference it is. Almost every projection that suggests one conference getting two teams into the playoff has those teams coming out of the same division, either the Big Ten East or SEC West.

A more plausible scenario to me is Ole Miss & Alabama both winning out, so Alabama slips in as the 3rd or 4th seed. If Alabama shows growth over the next two months they'll get a pass for a September loss because of the turnovers and fluke nature of some of the Rebels big plays.
It all depends on what's more important to the committee: (A) finishing 12-1 after losing a close contest in the CCG, or (B) finishing 11-1 and not even winning your own division, much less your conference. Personally, I'd be more impressed with the Team A, but that's not how things have worked in the past (see 2011, when LSU and Alabama played for the BCS championship).
 
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