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Stimulus Package: Tax Cuts Versus Spending

Discussion in 'Political Conversation and Debate' started by PlanetFrnd, Jan 27, 2009.

  1. to early to tell.

    i will say the market tends to dislike uncertainty. likely that is more of what is at play. you might have the bill signed but you have lots of uncertainty surrounding it and the homeowner bailouts, detroits bailouts, etc...
  2. Southpaw Stone

    Southpaw Stone 'Chillin on the Beach

    I agree it's too early to tell but we do know the early sentiment to the "stimulus" bill is quite poor.

    I read in an academic journal that a study of countries that have gone through a "financial crisis" such as ours typically have to endure 2.8 years before there is a recovery. The study went back 30 years I think and also looked at the impact of currency crises. I will post the link when I find it....looked everywhere last night.
  3. Gatorubet

    Gatorubet Banned

    Have to lots of other factors affecting the market than the one issue of the passage of the stimulus bill.
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2009
  4. MaxBuck

    MaxBuck Slam Thompson!

    At the very least, its passage has not been enough to counteract other negative influences.
  5. Gatorubet

    Gatorubet Banned

    Well, the numbers have to make you beleive that we are in for at least a couple years more bad news and freefall before we start back up. All those jobs lost will not be replaced in the twinkling of an eye.

    I expect a long recession and then bad inflation to follow.
  6. OSUsushichic

    OSUsushichic Fired up! Ready to go! Staff Member

  7. DaytonBuck

    DaytonBuck I've always liked them

    Bloomberg




    I guess the really confusing thing about this whole situation for me is people who argue against reality. If I believed everything the Democrats/Leftists on this site said and MSNBC Hong Kong would be a smoldering hole right now and the high regulated states of Europe wouldn't be affected by this downturn because they don't buy into "Cowboy Capitalism"


    Now if I told someone on here would just adopt the legal system of France because it's more fair people would scoff at me. I say we should adopt France's economic system and sizeable portion of the board would be in agreement.
  8. fourteenandoh

    fourteenandoh My swing feels like an unfolding lawn chair.

    did you guys hear about the solar company they used. something like they all get paid the same thing and no decision is made without a vote taken by every employee.

    I really don't think the markets have reacted one way or the other to the stimulus bill. when it was announced back in december, that is when the market moved. all the infrastructure plays and the healthcare plays rallied, but that has all been sold into now so the effect is nil.

    what's been really weighing on the market though is the administrations approach (or lack thereof) to the banks. like JO says, markets hate uncertainty. they are totally mum on the subject, so the market has no choice but to price in the worst. look at the performance of wells fargo, bank of america and fifth third this week (to name a few). it was getting so bad friday afternoon that gibbs called a special presser to say that they don't want to nationalize anything, and that actually helped. if a bank gets nationalized the common and preferredd stock goes to zero. insurance companies own preferreds, so they could go to zero also. there's a lot riding on this thing. i think geithner is supposed to talk again this week. i'm hoping he actually has some specific plans this time around.

    as for a recovery time period... without using any figures or models, common sense says this thing has to last at least 4 or 5 years. it took 20 years to happen, so it can't unravel in a year and half. i have to laugh when i hear the analysts calling for a second half recovery. it makes no sense. Like Gator says, the jobs won't come back in a twinkle. it takes months for them to make the decision to make the layoffs, a year or two to evaluate the effects and another few months to decide to rehire. also, you can fire 5000 people with a week's worth of work. it would take months and months to hire 5000 people.
  9. fourteenandoh

    fourteenandoh My swing feels like an unfolding lawn chair.


    I've heard good things about the author's book, "A forgotten man"
  10. CookyPuss

    CookyPuss Welcome to Costco... I love you.

    Too bad it's based upon complete B.S.

    The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression by Amity Shlaes - By Eric Rauchway - Slate Magazine
    fourteenandoh likes this.
  11. fourteenandoh

    fourteenandoh My swing feels like an unfolding lawn chair.

  12. CookyPuss

    CookyPuss Welcome to Costco... I love you.

    For what it's worth, the person who penned the Slate article is a history prof who also wrote a book on the Great Depression and got his PhD in history from Stanford. Shales who wrote "The Forgotten Man" has a BA in English and has been a conservative columnist and author.

    Here's another point-by-point rebuttal of her thesis:
    Hale "Bonddad" Stewart: The Great Depression, Part IV
  13. fourteenandoh

    fourteenandoh My swing feels like an unfolding lawn chair.


    i think i've said this before. it really brings down your argument when you cite huffington post or daily kos or other sites of that ilk. i tried to read your link, but tuned out when i got to this gem

    "and has generally fed at the RW noise machine trough ever since"

    How am I supposed to take someone seriously when they are that blatanly biased?
  14. CookyPuss

    CookyPuss Welcome to Costco... I love you.

    Well, you didn't seem much interested in the more neutral Slate article, written by an academic. :tongue2: I guess I could have linked to Krugman's take on Shales, but he's a well-known left wing hack. Amity Shlaes strikes again - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

    As far as citing biased sources from the left, I'll continue to do it as long as I continue to see biased sources from the right such as Shales posted. I find that if you read enough different biased sources, you get a little closer to the elusive truth. But, then again, I don't think absolute truth is knowable because we are imperfect beings. :wink2: To be totally honest, I don't think posting those links will convince you of anything or "win" me any debate points, I do it to further the discussion so I post things I find interesting or that express a differing point of view.
  15. WaitingforKickoff

    WaitingforKickoff generalist deliberator

    Is this the same Krugman that's calling for the erasing of tier 1 capital so that the USG can nationalize the banks and induce insolvency in the insurance industry? Like losing your insurance policy that you've been paying premiums for is a big deal....

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