DiHard
Guest
2004 Pre-Season Predictions for the Big Ten-Part 2
written by DiHard (6/22/2004)
The Big Ten appears to be split into three separate groups for the 2004 season. At the top are clear favorites in Ohio State and Michigan and at the bottom are three teams destined for painfully long seasons (see yesterday’s blog). It is positions 3 through 8 that are going to be really, really fun to watch this year as five teams are all capable of moving up to third place and all five are equally capable of dropping as far as eighth. So….Here are my reverse order predictions for the middle group
8. Michigan State- 2004 is going to be déjà vu for the Spartans. Again they will start the season with a flurry ….then they are likely to drop at least four of their remaining five games to finish off Big Ten play. The simple key to the season for MSU revolves around their ability to stop the run. In 2002 they gave up 214 ypg (4.7 ypc) on the ground, but last year dropped that number to 125 ypg (3.2 ypc). With the ability to stop the run, the Spartan win total doubled. I believe that in 2004 J.L. Smith will feel like road-kill on I-70…he’s going to get run over, then run over again and again and again…….
Key Offensive Player: Eric Knott (6-3,254) TE, SR. Knott was the #1 TE coming out of high school. He suffered an injury in the opener last year and never played to his potential. J.L. relies heavily on the TE….. if he stays healthy, Knott could be 1st Team All-Big Ten.
Key Defensive Player: Clifford Dukes (6-3,257) DE, SR. 2nd Team All-Big Ten last year. Dukes is all MSU has on the D-line and they need a monster year out of him if they have any hopes of reaching the top-half of the conference.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 24-MSU 16
2004 Record: 5-7
7. Purdue- All is right in the world again. Gone is that silly notion of a Joe Tiller team running the ball and playing great defense. Throw out the spikes and put the high-tops back on….its basketball on grass again in W. Lafayette. The bad news for the Boilers is the defense is so bad that a middle of the pack finish is the best they can hope for. The schedule is Purdue’s best ally as they get Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State at home.
Key Offensive Player: Ben Jones (6-0,210) K, JR. One of the top kickers in the country.
Jones hit on 25 of 30 tries last year and was 9-9 from 40-49 yards. With Purdue’s lack of defense,
every point is going to count……and Jones is as good as it gets.
Key Defensive Player: Ryan Baker (6-6,225) DE, tFR. Even though he is a true freshman, Baker is desperately needed to provide some speed on the outside of the D-line. Reminds me a lot of Simon Fraser his first year at Ohio State.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 31- PU 26
2004 Record: 7-4
6. Iowa- Kirk Ferentz has done a tremendous job here the past two years as he has guided the
Hawks to back-to-back National Top Ten Rankings. The streak ends at two though. The Hawkeyes should again be strong on defense, but they only return two starters on the offensive side of the ball. I would pick Iowa higher if the scheduling gods were not so cruel to them as they do not play either Indiana or Northwestern. Their Big Ten schedule is simply brutal….in an eight game stretch they play, Michigan, Mich. St., Ohio State, Penn St., Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ouch. Iowa should be expanding their physical therapy room as I write……..
Key Offensive Player: Mike Jones (6-5,304) LG, tSO. Someone needs to step up in the absence of Robert Gallery, and Jones is the man. His ability to anchor the O-line is crucial to the Hawkeye success in 04. One of the top-rated Lineman coming out of HS.
Key Defensive Player: Abdul Hodge (6-2,232) MLB, JR. 1st Team All-Big Ten in 03. Hodge notched 140 tackles, 2 sacks and 7 tackles for loss. On a strong defense, Hodge is the one who makes it go.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 20- Iowa 17
2004 Record: 7-4
5. Wisconsin- Injuries de-railed the 2003 season for the Badgers and the schedule will do the same for the 2004 team as Alvarez and company have to travel to Ohio State, Purdue and Iowa this year. There is talent everywhere on this team, but depth is a concern. The Badgers could have as many as Six First Team All-Big Ten Players at the end of the year. A negative is that Wisconsin has to break in a new quarterback, but I feel this is more than offset by the return of the top four rushers from 2003. Wisconsin is my sleeper pick to break into the top 2 in the league.
Key Offensive Player: John Stocco (6-2,202) QB, rSO. The Badgers offense is absolutely loaded and all they need is adequate QB play to make a serious run for the league crown. Sounds like every other year for an Alvarez team, doesn’t it? Can Stocco be adequate? If so, the Badgers could be playing on New Years Day.
Key Defensive Player: Scott Starks (5-10,176) CB, SR. Starks will be a four- year starter at the corner and is the most underrated defensive player in the league. In his first three seasons Starks has had 38 pbu’s (10,10,18). Team Starks with Jim Leonhard (18 ints last two years) and the Badgers secondary is tough to throw on.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 23 –UW 21
2004 Record: 8-3
4. Minnesota- Minnesota coming off a ten win season….did I hear that right? It’s only been a century since that last happened. What’s scary is this year’s Gopher team should be even better. That is…if they can find a quarterback to fill Abdul-Khaliq’s role. This is the common theme in the Big Ten this year…the play of first-year QB’s. No less than six of the top eight teams are relying on young quarterbacks. That’s why this could be a crazy year in the Big Ten. If this version of the Gophers gets decent play from the QB and believe in themselves every single game….they are a threat to play on New Years Day in the Citrus Bowl.
Key Offensive Player: Greg Eslinger (6-3,285) C, JR. 3rd Team All-American last year. The Gophers attack starts with the uglies. The 03 offensive line was tremendous, but this version…anchored by Eslinger…could be the best in the entire country.
Key Defensive Player: Terrance Campbell (6-2,200) LB, JR. Campbell is a little undersized….as is the entire defense…but he simply makes plays. The Gophers are college footballs version of the no-name defense.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: Don’t Play. If they did. OSU 23- UM 27
2004 Record: 9-2
3. Penn State- The cry for the head of Joe Pa ends this season as the Lions post nine wins and return to the nations elite. The offense is significantly improved over last year, mainly by having a healthy running back corps. Zack Mills should round back into his healthy form and the offensive line has as much talent as anyone in the league. The defense is still a question mark, but the Lions may be the highest scoring team in the league (a far cry from last years 19.4 pts/game). This team is just a small step from sending Joe Paterno into retirement with a Rose Bowl win.
Key Offensive Player: Austin Scott (6-0,214) RB, tSO. The entire offense (and team) is relying on a much, much improved ground game in 04. Austin has the makes to be a great back and is the difference between the Lions posting nine wins or five wins.
Key Defensive Player: Paul Poslusnzy (6-2,228) LB, tSO and Dan Connor (6-3,218) LB, tFR. Connor was in for the spring and Poslusnzy took his redshirt off last year to contribute. If these two can get anywhere near their potential this year, the Nittany defense is going to put the “U” back in LBU.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 27- PSU 30 2OT’s
2004 Record: 9-2
Its going to be fun watching these five teams play it out for third place in the conference this year. If Minnesota, Penn State or Wisconsin catch some breaks and overachieve they could find themselves in second place and playing in a BCS Bowl Game in 04-05.
Top Dawgs to come soon…….
written by DiHard (6/22/2004)
The Big Ten appears to be split into three separate groups for the 2004 season. At the top are clear favorites in Ohio State and Michigan and at the bottom are three teams destined for painfully long seasons (see yesterday’s blog). It is positions 3 through 8 that are going to be really, really fun to watch this year as five teams are all capable of moving up to third place and all five are equally capable of dropping as far as eighth. So….Here are my reverse order predictions for the middle group
8. Michigan State- 2004 is going to be déjà vu for the Spartans. Again they will start the season with a flurry ….then they are likely to drop at least four of their remaining five games to finish off Big Ten play. The simple key to the season for MSU revolves around their ability to stop the run. In 2002 they gave up 214 ypg (4.7 ypc) on the ground, but last year dropped that number to 125 ypg (3.2 ypc). With the ability to stop the run, the Spartan win total doubled. I believe that in 2004 J.L. Smith will feel like road-kill on I-70…he’s going to get run over, then run over again and again and again…….
Key Offensive Player: Eric Knott (6-3,254) TE, SR. Knott was the #1 TE coming out of high school. He suffered an injury in the opener last year and never played to his potential. J.L. relies heavily on the TE….. if he stays healthy, Knott could be 1st Team All-Big Ten.
Key Defensive Player: Clifford Dukes (6-3,257) DE, SR. 2nd Team All-Big Ten last year. Dukes is all MSU has on the D-line and they need a monster year out of him if they have any hopes of reaching the top-half of the conference.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 24-MSU 16
2004 Record: 5-7
7. Purdue- All is right in the world again. Gone is that silly notion of a Joe Tiller team running the ball and playing great defense. Throw out the spikes and put the high-tops back on….its basketball on grass again in W. Lafayette. The bad news for the Boilers is the defense is so bad that a middle of the pack finish is the best they can hope for. The schedule is Purdue’s best ally as they get Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State at home.
Key Offensive Player: Ben Jones (6-0,210) K, JR. One of the top kickers in the country.
Jones hit on 25 of 30 tries last year and was 9-9 from 40-49 yards. With Purdue’s lack of defense,
every point is going to count……and Jones is as good as it gets.
Key Defensive Player: Ryan Baker (6-6,225) DE, tFR. Even though he is a true freshman, Baker is desperately needed to provide some speed on the outside of the D-line. Reminds me a lot of Simon Fraser his first year at Ohio State.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 31- PU 26
2004 Record: 7-4
6. Iowa- Kirk Ferentz has done a tremendous job here the past two years as he has guided the
Hawks to back-to-back National Top Ten Rankings. The streak ends at two though. The Hawkeyes should again be strong on defense, but they only return two starters on the offensive side of the ball. I would pick Iowa higher if the scheduling gods were not so cruel to them as they do not play either Indiana or Northwestern. Their Big Ten schedule is simply brutal….in an eight game stretch they play, Michigan, Mich. St., Ohio State, Penn St., Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ouch. Iowa should be expanding their physical therapy room as I write……..
Key Offensive Player: Mike Jones (6-5,304) LG, tSO. Someone needs to step up in the absence of Robert Gallery, and Jones is the man. His ability to anchor the O-line is crucial to the Hawkeye success in 04. One of the top-rated Lineman coming out of HS.
Key Defensive Player: Abdul Hodge (6-2,232) MLB, JR. 1st Team All-Big Ten in 03. Hodge notched 140 tackles, 2 sacks and 7 tackles for loss. On a strong defense, Hodge is the one who makes it go.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 20- Iowa 17
2004 Record: 7-4
5. Wisconsin- Injuries de-railed the 2003 season for the Badgers and the schedule will do the same for the 2004 team as Alvarez and company have to travel to Ohio State, Purdue and Iowa this year. There is talent everywhere on this team, but depth is a concern. The Badgers could have as many as Six First Team All-Big Ten Players at the end of the year. A negative is that Wisconsin has to break in a new quarterback, but I feel this is more than offset by the return of the top four rushers from 2003. Wisconsin is my sleeper pick to break into the top 2 in the league.
Key Offensive Player: John Stocco (6-2,202) QB, rSO. The Badgers offense is absolutely loaded and all they need is adequate QB play to make a serious run for the league crown. Sounds like every other year for an Alvarez team, doesn’t it? Can Stocco be adequate? If so, the Badgers could be playing on New Years Day.
Key Defensive Player: Scott Starks (5-10,176) CB, SR. Starks will be a four- year starter at the corner and is the most underrated defensive player in the league. In his first three seasons Starks has had 38 pbu’s (10,10,18). Team Starks with Jim Leonhard (18 ints last two years) and the Badgers secondary is tough to throw on.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 23 –UW 21
2004 Record: 8-3
4. Minnesota- Minnesota coming off a ten win season….did I hear that right? It’s only been a century since that last happened. What’s scary is this year’s Gopher team should be even better. That is…if they can find a quarterback to fill Abdul-Khaliq’s role. This is the common theme in the Big Ten this year…the play of first-year QB’s. No less than six of the top eight teams are relying on young quarterbacks. That’s why this could be a crazy year in the Big Ten. If this version of the Gophers gets decent play from the QB and believe in themselves every single game….they are a threat to play on New Years Day in the Citrus Bowl.
Key Offensive Player: Greg Eslinger (6-3,285) C, JR. 3rd Team All-American last year. The Gophers attack starts with the uglies. The 03 offensive line was tremendous, but this version…anchored by Eslinger…could be the best in the entire country.
Key Defensive Player: Terrance Campbell (6-2,200) LB, JR. Campbell is a little undersized….as is the entire defense…but he simply makes plays. The Gophers are college footballs version of the no-name defense.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: Don’t Play. If they did. OSU 23- UM 27
2004 Record: 9-2
3. Penn State- The cry for the head of Joe Pa ends this season as the Lions post nine wins and return to the nations elite. The offense is significantly improved over last year, mainly by having a healthy running back corps. Zack Mills should round back into his healthy form and the offensive line has as much talent as anyone in the league. The defense is still a question mark, but the Lions may be the highest scoring team in the league (a far cry from last years 19.4 pts/game). This team is just a small step from sending Joe Paterno into retirement with a Rose Bowl win.
Key Offensive Player: Austin Scott (6-0,214) RB, tSO. The entire offense (and team) is relying on a much, much improved ground game in 04. Austin has the makes to be a great back and is the difference between the Lions posting nine wins or five wins.
Key Defensive Player: Paul Poslusnzy (6-2,228) LB, tSO and Dan Connor (6-3,218) LB, tFR. Connor was in for the spring and Poslusnzy took his redshirt off last year to contribute. If these two can get anywhere near their potential this year, the Nittany defense is going to put the “U” back in LBU.
2004 OSU Predicted Score: OSU 27- PSU 30 2OT’s
2004 Record: 9-2
Its going to be fun watching these five teams play it out for third place in the conference this year. If Minnesota, Penn State or Wisconsin catch some breaks and overachieve they could find themselves in second place and playing in a BCS Bowl Game in 04-05.
Top Dawgs to come soon…….
