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2017 College Football Playoffs (and Other Bowl Games)

There's no way for Bama to lose 2. IF they lose to Auburn they aren't playing in the conf title game

Best case scenario for next week

1)OSU takes *Ichigan to the woodshed
2)Bama beats Auburn
3)Miami loses to Pitt
4)Clemson loses to SC
5)ND loses to Stanford

I put ND in there because, well, fuckem

Miami losing before the conf game would help because then it wouldn't matter who wins the ACC as loser is out now

This. An ACC loss this weekend for either team would be excellent. Even if it's Clemson. Because, quite frankly, I think Clemson has a very very good chance against Miami.
 
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I'm not sure if they'd put OSU in over a 2 loss Clemson. Maybe, but I'd still need to see it to believe it. I think Miami or Clemson needs to lose this week and then lose in the championship game. If that happens and Bama/Oklahoma win out, I'd put OSU's chances at 90%. If it doesn't I'd say 10%.

We need to root for Clemson to beat Miami and beat them bad imo. Clemson is getting in over us win or lose (unless the loss is like 45-3). Most likely the only 1 loss team will be Miami and it will be between us or them for the 4th spot (assuming we handle business obviously)
 
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BTW, an observation they're sending to the B1G (or allowing themselves to put in 2 SEC teams).

They moved Mississippi State up 2... only 1 of 2 teams to climb that far. DESPITE struggling and nearly losing to Arkansas.

Michigan State was only bumped up 1.
 
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“We continue to be impressed with the Southern California team who has played very well as of late.

that just barely beat a bad UCLA team. :sarcastic:

Ok, my cynicism aside I do still believe the CFP committee isn't all that impressed with the B1G this year.

OSU is only the third highest ranked 2 loss team
Wisconsin is overall #5 behind every undefeated team (save UCF) and two 1 loss teams.
Sparty, otoh, is the second best 3 loss team ahead of both Stanford and Washington, which flys in the face of what the CFP guy said about loving him some USC but who knows.

OSU is flat out going to need some more help imo but who cares? The Game is all that matters right now.
 
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We need to root for Clemson to beat Miami and beat them bad imo. Clemson is getting in over us win or lose (unless the loss is like 45-3). Most likely the only 1 loss team will be Miami and it will be between us or them for the 4th spot (assuming we handle business obviously)

I agree with this. Clemson is getting credit for only half a loss to Syracuse. Plus they're the reigning NC Champions.

It would suck balls for Clemson and Bama to get in AGAIN. If they play each other in the NC for the THIRD TIME, I'm not sure I will even watch it. Then again, they may LOL at the possibility of Clemson playing tOSU again and just not put us in because of, you know.
 
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that just barely beat a bad UCLA team. :sarcastic:

Ok, my cynicism aside I do still believe the CFP committee isn't all that impressed with the B1G this year.

OSU is only the third highest ranked 2 loss team
Wisconsin is overall #5 behind every undefeated team (save UCF) and two 1 loss teams.
Sparty, otoh, is the second best 3 loss team ahead of both Stanford and Washington, which flys in the face of what the CFP guy said about loving him some USC but who knows.

OSU is flat out going to need some more help imo but who cares? The Game is all that matters right now.

When I read that and this:

“The selection committee was extremely impressed with the win and the manner in which the win came about last week against Michigan State. The win over Michigan State and the win over Penn State are victories the selection committee continues to be impressed with. But again, the losses to Oklahoma and Iowa also weakened their resume at this particular time.”

I believe he said something else about it weighing heavily. I just think he's setting it up for us to be left out barring several losses this weekend and certain things happening. I have a feeling they're keeping us out unless they have absolutely NO ONE else to put in. Which, the more I think about it, may be OK.

At least our losses came to OU and Iowa. I would rather lose by 31 points to Iowa and not get in than lose our only game to scUM and get in. I don't care if we go to the Playoffs if we don't beat scUM.
 
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“The selection committee was extremely impressed with the win and the manner in which the win came about last week against Michigan State. The win over Michigan State and the win over Penn State are victories the selection committee continues to be impressed with. But again, the losses to Oklahoma and Iowa also weakened their resume at this particular time.”

You could read that as "The good wins and bad losses even out. What they do from here determines how we rank them."

Again, I'm not real worried about it. Going to have to win out and look pretty good doing so, then get a few more games to go OSU's way.

start's with winning The Game, win that and fail in any other way to get a CFP berth and I'm ok.
 
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Repeating, it's more likely imo the U wins big over Clemson than vice/versa. Again, the U has been progressing while Clemson has been regressing. Which is why I think the key game is Clemson vs SC.

Go Gamecocks!

>

btw, it's amazing there still is a discussion after the Iowa game. Re: the committee, if everything falls the way the Buckeyes need then the final tipping point will be the tv ratings Buckeye freight train! :nod:
 
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We need to root for Clemson to beat Miami and beat them bad imo. Clemson is getting in over us win or lose (unless the loss is like 45-3). Most likely the only 1 loss team will be Miami and it will be between us or them for the 4th spot (assuming we handle business obviously)

Honestly, we're pretty proper fucked at this stage. We need to absolutely roll Simple Jim and Wiscy, and JT needs to show very well in both games. Then, I still think we get in over any 2-loss CG loser then, which is why I'll be rooting for the Canes. Our worst case scenario is Alabama losing one of the next two games. And don't be so certain that they're positioning things to let a second ACC or SEC school in (cough...cough...Notre Dame).
 
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I don't think the committee puts Clemson in over us with 2 losses. Think of the message the committee would be sending, it's ok to not win your conference and lose two games and get in over a team that lost 2 games but won their conference. Plus they would leaving out a major conference champion with the same record. I would be more worried about Miami staying over us if they lose to Clemson personally, since Miami would still only have 1 loss, and the committee obviously likes Miami seeing as they just moved up for barely escaping against a crappy team. Then that could be a OSU vs PSU situation like last year only this time Miami is us and we are PSU w/o even the benefit of a H2H win no less.

I'm not worried about U$C or ND honestly, U$C is already behind us with only 1 game to go and it would be against an underwhelming Stanford team, we'd be beating a strong UM team just as good as Stanford and beating a hopefully undefeated Wisky team in the B10. As for ND, they are ahead of us by one but with no conference title game, I don't see any chance they get in, especially with that blowout to Miami.

In my opinion we badly need Bama and Miami to win out, if either lose, they could be the team that stays ahead of us and keeps us out.

I'm sort of ticked at myself for starting to gather some hope, a few weeks ago I was accepting of the fact that Iowa beatdown was the nail in the coffin for us, but then this situation happened and now we are positioned with an outside shot, and it completely got my interest flowing again.
 
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Honestly, we're pretty proper fucked at this stage. We need to absolutely roll Simple Jim and Wiscy, and JT needs to show very well in both games. Then, I still think we get in over any 2-loss CG loser then, which is why I'll be rooting for the Canes. Our worst case scenario is Alabama losing one of the next two games. And don't be so certain that they're positioning things to let a second ACC or SEC school in (cough...cough...Notre Dame).
Bama loses. They are done for the season. Barn vs Bama for the SEC West
 
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/?addata=espn:ncf:playoff

This has probably already been posted, but is kind of an interesting toy to put different scenarios into motion. From what I can gather, it makes virtually no difference to our playoff chances if Wisky beats scUM or not.

If we win out, it shows a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

View attachment 16896

Fooled with this thing now and some scenarios have us as much as 88% likely to make it. It feels like it's overestimating our chances to me. Two losses by an average of 23 points seems like a lot to overcome.

But let's win our last two games and see what happens.
 
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