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An attempt at objective conference analysis

Discussion in 'Buckeye Football' started by BB73, Sep 26, 2004.

  1. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    Let's look at the top 5 conferences. To compare them to each other, games within the conference are ignored, since every conference has a .500 record for all its in-conference play.

    Let's look for quality wins against other BCS conferences, and this still considers the Big East a BCS conference, since they get an automatic bid even though they're well below the other 5. Let's ignore all wins that aren't against Division 1-A teams. Here's what we have;

    Big-12 .750 (24-8 non-conf record, ignoring 4 lesser opponents)
    Big-10 .700 (21-9 non-conf record, ignoring 2 lesser opponents)
    SEC---.700 (14-6 non-conf record, ignoring 3 lesser opponents)
    ACC---.611 (11-7 non-conf record, ignoring 4 lesser opponents)
    Pac10 .600 (15-10 non-conf record, ignoring 1 - N. Arizona)

    Let's also look at each non-conference loss. Comparing the wins against major conferences against all losses:

    Big-12 .429 (wins over Wash St, Pitt, UCLA, Oregon, Ark, Clem and 8 losses)
    Big-10 .400 (wins over Ariz, Syr, NC St, Oregon, Iowa St, Kansas & 9 losses)
    ACC--- .300 (wins over Syr, Temple, BC & 7 losses)
    PAC10 .286 (wins over Iowa, NW, VaTech, and Illinois & 10 losses)
    SEC--- .250 (wins over Indiana, Oregon St and 6 losses)

    Looking at quality wins on the road for each conference:

    Big-12...4 (Col @ Wast St, Neb @ Pitt, Ok St @ UCLA, Tex @ Ark)
    Big-10...3 (Wisc @ Ariz, tOSU @ NC St, Ind @ Oregon)
    Pac-10..3 (Az St @ NW, UCLA @ Ill, USC-VaTech virtual road game in DC)
    ACC......0 (3 wins against BCS teams are all Big East teams @ ACC teams)
    SEC......0 (2 wins are Ky hosting Ind & LSU hosting Oreg St's 3 missed PATs)

    Looking at losses to non-BCS teams for each conference

    ACC......2 (N. Car @ Louisv, Duke @ Navy)
    Big-10...3 (Mich St hosting ND, Mich @ ND, NW @ TCU)
    Pac-10..4 (Az hosting Utah, Og St @ Boise, Wash @ Fresno and @ND)
    SEC......5 (Miss St hosting Maine, Ole Miss hosting Memphis,
    ...............Ky @ Louisv, Vandy @ Navy, Ole Miss @ Wyoming)
    Big-12...6 (K-St hosting Fresno, Neb hosting S. Miss, Mo @ Troy,
    ..............TTech @ New Mexico, Baylor @ UAB, Tx A&M @ Utah)

    Everything so far has been pure facts. Now I will add some subjectivity.

    Adjusting the non-BCS losses for reasonableness, to find only 'bad' losses; since ND, Louisville, Utah, Boise St and Fresno St are all solid opponents:

    Pac-10...0 (those 4 losses are all tough games)
    ACC.......1 (@ Louisville is a tough game)
    Big-10....1 (throw out ND losses, keep TCU)
    Big-12....4 (throw out Fresno and Utah games)
    SEC.......4 (@Louisville again, keep Memphis)

    My overall rankings of conferences, based on game played so far:

    Big-12 (6-2 against BCS conferences, 4 good road wins, 4 bad losses)
    Big-10 (6-6 against BCS conferences, 3 good road wins, 1 bad losss)
    Pac-10 (4-6 against BCS conferences, 3 good road wins, 0 bad losses)
    ACC.....(3-5 against BCS conferences, 0 good road wins, 1 bad loss)
    SEC.....(2-1 against BCS conferences, 0 good road wins, 4 bad losses)

    I know folks will be shocked to see the SEC last, but they need to play some tougher teams, aviod some terrible losses (Maine, Wyoming) and beat somebody on the road before they say they're better than other conferences.
  2. VprHis

    VprHis Get off my lawn, you hooligans!

    Might want to consider the matchups a little more. weren't half of the bad losses in the big 12 by teams supposed to be competing for the conf. championship (Mizzou and Neb)?

    I like the analysis, don't get me wrong. It's well thought out and has nice data to back it up. I really like looking at bowl performance. That has all of this already built in. The conf. teams are already ranked, and you have set matchups--ever notice that the B10 plays on the wrong end of mismatches in the bowls (esp. when we've got 2 teams in the BCS),yet we do pretty darn well in the W-L column. Of course, judging by the bowls isn't really an accurate measure of OVERALL conf. strength, as it's based on just those discrete data points.

    I think (note lack of supporting data) that the recent changes in the ACC will take a big step toward making this somewhat of a moot argument. Think of ALLLLL the press and hype that have gone in the favor of the Fla "big 3." FSU, playing in the old ACC, had to fight their way through a decent conf. to get to the NC, but no ACC team could really equal them, so the conf. title was theirs almost by default. Cryami? Their only tough games were out of conference, giving them a NO-risk, High reward schedule every year. Florida, well, they had to work their way through the SEC, which is a solid conference. Kind of like the B10 second tier, no perennials, but someone will step up. Mix FSU and Cryami together, and I'm sure they'll probably get 2 BCS berths just on their extra 'tough' schedule, but just maybe the new ACC will be on a par with the SEC, B12 and B10 for top-to-bottom talent, now. Add to that what looks like a bit of a resurgence in the Pac-10, and you begin to see a situation where any conference champion has had a steep, treacherous road to the end of the season, regardless of conference affiliation.

    Now if we could just get these upstart mid-majors to quit whining about how tough THEIR lives supposedly are.... anybody want to place any bets on how Northern Illinois would be doing by November if they'd played a B10 schedule last year? How 'bout THIS year... Buffalo would look at these guys and cringe when we got done with them.
  3. BB73

    BB73 Loves Buckeye History Staff Member Bookie '16 & '17 Upset Contest Winner

    I was surprised that I ended up with the Big-12 on top. Especially since the Big-12 North contenders had a really bad week when Troy downed Mo, Southern Miss nailed Neb, and Fresno St pounded Kansas St.

    But I analyzed all of the data before I tried to draw conclusions. I didn't factor in margin of victory. I think based on the games they've played, the Big-12 gets the nod.

    If a conference wants to improve its reputation, it should have its top teams play lesser teams from BCS conferences, aviod road games, and have its weaker teams play the easiest matchups they can find in Division 1A. I don't think I need to tell the SEC this, though.

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