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Baltimore Orioles (3x World Series Champions)

Mike80

Identity missing....
  • No pain and despair allowed for the first half this season...last year defied all logic and reason and they came within basically inches of being in the ALCS...

    Orioles look to recapture magic, but history is not on their side


    SARASOTA, Fla. -- Watching the Baltimore Orioles win baseball games last year was a study in the illogic. They were poor at getting on base and scoring runs, only one pitcher threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, only one pitcher won more than nine games and none won more than 12, and they had more players strike out 100 times (seven) than any team in the history of baseball. Oh, and they burned through 52 players, many of whom were part of the Les Miserables-like cast of 75 that suited up for their Triple-A team, Norfolk.

    Somehow, like one of those mentalist tricks where a spoon appears to bend untouched, the Orioles won a wild card spot with 93 wins.

    How did they do that? It made sense if you let yourself believe that the O's won an inordinate amount of close games because of the depth in their bullpen and because they hit more home runs than all but one team in Baltimore history, with many of those homers late-game decisive bolts. A cynic, fully aware of the randomness of one-run outcomes, would suggest they were one of the luckiest teams in baseball history.

    Count the Nevada gaming industry as a cynic. The Atlantis Casino in Reno put the over/under number of wins for the Orioles this year at 76.5, the lowest number of any team in the AL East and -- gulp! -- lower than those of the Pirates, Royals and Indians. The way Baltimore GM Dan Duquette figures it, the odds are that his team will be better than last year.

    "Our core players, guys like [Adam] Jones, [Matt] Wieters, [Nick] Markakis, are all young and just getting to their prime years," Duquette said. "Our defense improved in the second half last year with the additions of [outfielder Nate] McLouth and [third baseman Manny] Machado and [Mark] Reynolds moving to first base. We had the second-best record in the league down the stretch. So we should be better defensively. And Machado is a special player. He's what, only 20? You're looking at someone who definitely profiles as a middle-of-the-order hitter."

    Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/ml...oles-adam-jones-buck-showalter/#ixzz2LO8Isa7f

    FWIW, my prediction is a final record in and around .500, but I think they will look significantly better towards the end of the season than they will at the beginning.
     
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    Ok so we're well into June and while they do indeed have holes and whatnot, they are 42-31 so far.

    If this team ever finds some consistently average starting pitching, they'll win 100 games. If the offense ever slows down, they'll be in trouble.

    Crush Davis needs to be an MVP candidate now. If he isn't, it's a travesty. 26 homers now with two more coming today. And that's hiding what is also a monster year from Adam Jones (15 homers and 64 RBI) and even JJ Hardy is hitting .260 with 13 homers.
     
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    Just when I thought Davis was finally regressing to the norm, he hits 4 homers in 4 games to end the 1st half. Through his career, and especially last year, he's been a 2nd half player. If that holds, I think he'll top out around 55 homers or so, if he has a serious regression or if the home run derby fucks up his swing, I could also see him not making it to 50 homers on the year.

    If this team had anything like competent starting pitching in May and early June especially, it's not far-fetched to think they would have 60 wins already. That said, I have to think that of any of the top 7 teams in the AL (Boston, Tampa, Detroit, Cleveland, Oakland, Texas), Baltimore is probably the team most likely to fade down the stretch, especially if the bats cool off.

    I see them going 89-73 or so and finishing 5-6 games out of the 2nd wildcard spot.
     
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    Their schedule until august 19th is about as easy as it'll get for the rest of the year. They won't make the playoffs if they don't take care of business up until then, because after that it's the Rays, A's, Red Sox and Skanks to close out the month. They'll need to play .800 baseball from now until August 19th to have any shot in September.
     
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