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- Thread starter BB73
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FrancisSoyer
Hall of Fame
Not watching. If it turns out to be a good game I'll catch the highlights on Sports Center.
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muffler dragon
Bien. Bien chiludo.
Anyone have insight as to why Bama's favored when they didn't even win at home?
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FrancisSoyer
Hall of Fame
muffler dragon;2074632; said:
The "revenge factor" more than likely. I think LSU will take them behind the shed for a few hours.
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The better team does not always win. Differential Statistical Analysis (DSA) suggests that the better team did not win the last time these teams played. The main point is that Alabama's defense is one of the best that DSA has ever measured.
To be fair, LSU's Differential Scoring Defense of 0.396 is one of the best season-long numbers of the past 10 years. But Alabama's DSD of 0.307 is un-freaking-believable. Based on that number alone this may be one of the best defenses since the 1973 Buckeyes - seriously.
On top of that, Alabama is at the top of every differential defensive category: Rushing, Passing, Passing Efficiency... choose the category, Alabama is on top.
As for the DSA prediction for this game:
_____________Points__________Yards_
Alabama_____13.9-17.9_______301-334
LSU_________11.5-13.2_______189-194
If anyone cares, I can post DSA for more games or DSA standings in various categories.
To be fair, LSU's Differential Scoring Defense of 0.396 is one of the best season-long numbers of the past 10 years. But Alabama's DSD of 0.307 is un-freaking-believable. Based on that number alone this may be one of the best defenses since the 1973 Buckeyes - seriously.
On top of that, Alabama is at the top of every differential defensive category: Rushing, Passing, Passing Efficiency... choose the category, Alabama is on top.
As for the DSA prediction for this game:
_____________Points__________Yards_
Alabama_____13.9-17.9_______301-334
LSU_________11.5-13.2_______189-194
If anyone cares, I can post DSA for more games or DSA standings in various categories.
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muffler dragon
Bien. Bien chiludo.
DBB:
So, basically, it comes down to which offense is worse, correct?
So, basically, it comes down to which offense is worse, correct?
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LSU is #3 in the nation in Differential Scoring Offense (1.709).
Alabama is #7 in the nation in Differential Scoring Offense (1.606).
This differs substantially from their ranking in traditional Scoring Offense (12th and 18th, respectively (FCS games discarded for all teams in those rankings)). The difference in Total Offense and Differential Total Offense is even greater.
In Total Offense (FCS games discarded):
LSU is #71 in the nation (373.25).
Alabama is #30 in the nation (430.81).
But in Differential Total Offense:
LSU is #33 (1.09)
Alabama is #9 (1.26)
It may not fit the usual BP narrative, but LSU and Alabama both faced tough defenses this year. Those defense held their traditional stats down; but their differential stats show that their offenses are actually quite good. It was their defenses that landed them in the Championship Game though.
Alabama is #7 in the nation in Differential Scoring Offense (1.606).
This differs substantially from their ranking in traditional Scoring Offense (12th and 18th, respectively (FCS games discarded for all teams in those rankings)). The difference in Total Offense and Differential Total Offense is even greater.
In Total Offense (FCS games discarded):
LSU is #71 in the nation (373.25).
Alabama is #30 in the nation (430.81).
But in Differential Total Offense:
LSU is #33 (1.09)
Alabama is #9 (1.26)
It may not fit the usual BP narrative, but LSU and Alabama both faced tough defenses this year. Those defense held their traditional stats down; but their differential stats show that their offenses are actually quite good. It was their defenses that landed them in the Championship Game though.
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BLPCB
2010 Rose Bowl MVP
I am going to be in Nawlins the night of the national title game. I am going to display this sign at the fanfest:
https://twitter.com/#!/BLPCB/status/152962202687639552
Can you people please help me spread this tweet? We need to show our anger
https://twitter.com/#!/BLPCB/status/152962202687639552
Can you people please help me spread this tweet? We need to show our anger
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