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Cleveland Cavs (2016 NBA Champions)

Discussion in 'Professional Basketball' started by stowfan, Oct 30, 2012.

  1. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    The early returns on Darius Garland are ... he shouldn't have been the #5 pick in the NBA draft. Dude started 0-10 from the field tonight. It is obviously very early, but so far he is looking more like a guy that should have been a mid-first rounder at best. There are several guys that were selected lower that are outperforming him, including guards Coby White and Tyler Herro.
     
  2. CFPBuckeye

    CFPBuckeye Turned down a Harbaugh sleepover '17 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    Looking back, it’s almost as if people knew Garland was a shitty pick.
     
  3. buckeyemania11

    buckeyemania11 HATE, HATE, HATE, HATE!!! Former BPCFFB II Champ '18 Bowl Upset Contest Winner

    The Cavs making a shitty draft pick. Shocking I tell you!
     
  4. BuckBackHome

    BuckBackHome Wolverine is largest member of weasel family

    Wow. Seems a tad early to be calling this an overreach. The kid has played 11 games in the last 12 months, including 7 NBA games. Let's check back come all-star break and see how he's doing.
     
  5. CFPBuckeye

    CFPBuckeye Turned down a Harbaugh sleepover '17 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    Garland will be watching the game with whoever else still watches the NBA Allstar game.
     
  6. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    Seems like a good time to post this, as the Cavs are once again a topic and I could use a distraction from the Chase Young Saga:

    I have listed all of the Cavaliers' first round draft picks prior to the 2019 draft. Instead of giving traditional stats for each player, I have listed PER (player efficiency ratin), WS (win share), and WS/48 (win share per 48 minutes).

    Win Share is a cumulative stat that measures a player's value throughout his career; essentially, it tries to quantify how many wins that player has created for his team over his entire career, and thus longevity is a factor here. For stat geeks, here is a link to an article on Win Share. A Win Share of 120+ is pretty much a guarantee for the Hall of Fame. I have bolded Win Shares above 50, and red bolded Win Shares above 100.

    PER and WS/48 are averages that are independent of the length of the player's career. WS/48 is merely Win Share per each 48 minutes played; the NBA league average is .100 for WS/48. To judge WS/48 historically, there are 43 Hall of Fame eligible players with a WS/48 of .1699 or higher, and 40 of them are in the Hall of Fame, with the exceptions being former Cav Kevin Johnson (.1777); Chauncey Billups (.1756); and former Cav Larry Nance Sr. (.1713). I have bolded WS/48 scores above the league average, and red bolded scores above .1699 (likely Hall of Famer).

    PER is a measure of per-minute production. The NBA league average is 15.0, and I have bolded score above that number. I have red bolded scores above 20.0 (likely Hall of Famer).

    Like Win Share, VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is a cumulative stats that measures a player's value over his entire career (or for any given period of time). VORP takes into account "minutes played", because a player who is on the court more often is more valuable to his team. For NBA purposes, a "replacement player" is an end-of-the-bench guy.

    There seems to be less correlation between VORP and Hall of Fame recognition than for the other advanced metrics. Clearly a very high VORP score basically ensures enshrinement, as every player with a VORP of 60+ is (or will be, when eligible) in the Hall of Fame. However, some players with VORP scores below 20 have also been elected to the Hall (Yao Ming, David Thompson, Paul Westphal, et al). I have rather arbitrarily selected 20 as an exceptional VORP score (bolded), and 40 as a Hall of Fame worthy VORP score (red bolded).

    YearPick#Name...PER......WS...WS/48.VORP.
    1970#7John Johnson14.137.1.0696.4
    1971#1Austin Carr15.032.9.0804.0
    1972#3Dwight Davis12.311.4.0681.1
    1973#2Jim Brewer12.229.3.08811.1
    1974#8Campy Russell16.335.8.10311.1
    1975#15John Lambert10.46.9.060-0.8
    1976#15Chuckie Williams8.8-0.2-.137-0.2
    1978#15Mike Mitchell16.750.2.0980.4
    1980#22Chad Kinch7.0-0.5-.071-0.6
    1982#12John Bagley13.016.6.0470.3
    1983#20Roy Hinson14.730.2.0934.3
    1983#24Stewart Granger8.4-0.1-.005-1.0
    1984#12Tim McCormick12.821.5.0991.4
    1985#11Keith Lee12.23.7.0620.0
    1986#1Brad Daugherty18.965.2.15623.1
    1986#8Ron Harper15.665.8.10132.0
    1987#7Kevin Johnson20.792.8.17828.0
    1988#22Randolph Keys10.32.3.034-1.0
    1989#25John Morton10.50.5.013-1.3
    1991#11Terrell Brandon19.765.9.14723.7
    1993#22Chris Mills13.337.7.1058.8
    1995#17Bobby Sura14.328.3.0879.2
    1996#12Vitaly Potapenko11.815.5.064-4.4
    1996#20Zydrunas Ilgauskas18.566.3.13913.0
    1997#13Derek Anderson15.343.9.11713.3
    1997#16Brevin Knight14.932.6.0864.3
    1999#8Andre Miller17.4100.8.12031.7
    1999#11Trajan Langdon12.22.9.0790.1
    2000#7Chris Mihm13.413.3.073-4.1
    2001#8DeSagana Diop9.812.8.0734.3
    2002#6Dajuan Wagner9.90.0.000-2.0
    2003#1LeBron James27.6226.6.235129.8
    2004#10Luke Jackson9.30.2.010-0.4
    2006#25Shannon Brown12.49.2.060-0.6
    2008#19J.J. Hickson16.121.9.088-0.9
    2009#30Christian Eyenga8.6-0.4-.020-0.5
    2011#1Kyrie Irving22.158.4.16324.9
    2011#4Tristan Thompson15.440.0.1235.5
    2012#4Dion Waiters12.08.7.036-1.6
    2013#1Anthony Bennett10.20.5.013-1.7
    2013#19Sergey Karasev8.70.8.036-0.3
    2014#1Andrew Wiggins14.513.0.044-1.6
    2018#8Collin Sexton12.0-0.6-.011-2.1
    Some notes and observations....

    Only three of the Cavs' 42 first round draft choices have a PER score of greater than 20.0 (likely Hall of Famer): Kevin Johnson (20.7, #61 all-time); Kyrie Irving (22.1, #12 active, #33 all-time); and LeBron James (27.6, #1 active, #2 all-time).

    Similarly, only two of the Cavs' 42 first round draft choices have a WS/48 score of greater than .1699 (likely Hall of Famer): Kevin Johnson (.1777, #44 all-time) and LeBron James (.2352, #2 active, #6 all-time).

    Finally, only one Cavalier first rounder has a VORP score worthy of the Hall of Fame, and that of course is LeBron James (129.8, #1 active, #1 all-time).

    All those draft picks over the years, and only one definite Hall of Famer (James), and two possible Hall of Famers (Johnson, Irving), is the result. This helps to explain the Cavs' woes during most of their 50-year history.

    On the other hand, 10 of the Cavs' 42 first round selections (23.8%) have a Win Share of less than 1.0. In other words, each of those ten first round picks has contributed less than one win to his team throughout his entire NBA career (although last year's first round selection, Collin Sexton, will very likely have a much higher Win Share before he retires). A Win Share of <1.0 is mega-bust territory.

    Some of the Cavs best draft picks have been in the second or third rounds:

    YearRoundName...PER......WS...WS/48.VORP.
    19743rdFootsie Walker13.731.0.09910.5
    19793rdBill Laimbeer16.1105.6.14934.4
    19852ndHot Rod Williams15.670.5.12925.1
    19862ndMark Price19.671.1.15622.7
    20022ndCarlos Boozer19.580.3.14322.1
    20092ndDanny Green13.239.2.11919.9
    Austin Carr is generally considered to be a Cavs' legend, but his PER of 15.0 is right on the league average; his WS/48 of .080 is considerably below the league average; and his total Win Share of 32.9 (in 11 seasons) is far below what you'd expect from a #1 overall selection.

    Campy Russell and Mike Mitchell were both better than average players, but hardly superstars.

    In 1985, the Cavs actually drafted Charles Oakley with the #9 overall pick and traded him for Keith Lee. Oakley had a long (19 seasons) and solid (13.4 PER, 89.7 WS, .107 WS/48) career, while Lee was an all-time bust.

    The Cavs didn't really hit on a draft pick until selecting Brad Daugherty #1 overall in 1986. Daugherty's PER (18.9) and WS/48 (.156) are borderline Hall of Fame numbers, and he might have received some serious consideration for the Hall if his career hadn't been cut short at age 28 due to injuries. For his career, Daugherty averaged 19.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, and was an All Star five times (all NBA once).

    Ron Harper was another solid draft choice as the #8 pick in 1986, and the team also added Mark Price (19.6 PER, 71.1 WS, .158 WS/48) in the second round of that draft. Then in 1987 the Cavs made arguably their second-best draft choice of all time in the person of Kevin Johnson. With so much home-grown talent (also Hot Rod Williams, second round in 1985), it's no wonder that the Cavs were serious title contenders in 1988-89, 1991-92, and 1992-93.

    Terrell Brandon (19.7 PER, 65.9 WS, .147 WS/48) is one of the biggest surprises on the list. His stats certainly aren't noteworthy (13.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 6.1 apg, 1.6 steals per game), but his advanced metrics say that he had a very good NBA career.

    Zydrunas Ilgauskas was a borderline great pick, and Derek Anderson fared better than I'd expected for a guy who bounced around the NBA for 11 seasons.

    Andre Miller played 17 years in the NBA (which helps explain his 100.8 Win Share), but he also had better than average PER (17.4) and WS/48 (.120). Overall, he was one of the Cavs' best first round choices ever.

    In 2000, the Cavs actually drafted Jamal Crawford and traded him for Chris Mihm. While Crawford was still in the NBA last season (his 19th) and has had a productive pro career (15.1 PER, 60.6 WS, .075 WS/48), Mihm was a complete bust.

    Then, of course, the Cavs hit the grand slam home run in 2003, albeit on a batting practice fast ball. Widely regarded as the greatest prospect ever to enter the NBA, LeBron James certainly lived up to the massive hype, and he has made a strong case to be considered the greatest NBA player ever.

    After drafting James in 2003, the Cavs had mediocre-to-bad selections until once again getting the #1 overall pick in 2011. Kyrie Irving has great numbers, and he was an integral part of the Cavs' 2016 championship squad, although he can be a challenging teammate.

    Tristan Thompson fares better in advanced metrics than he does in raw stats (9.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg) and the "eye test", but he has certainly been a better-than-average NBA player.

    Since 2011, the Cavs have drafted a bunch of garbage, with the possible exception of Collin Sexton in 2018 (and the three new #1 picks acquired in 2019). Dion Waiters has been absolutely awful (and he's a lousy teammate), and Anthony Bennett might be the worst #1 overall draft pick in any sport (A 0.5 Win Share? Four teams in four years then out of the league at age 23? Are you kidding me?).

    Even though he never played for the Cavs, I included Andrew Wiggins primarily to show how overrated he is by the general NBA fan. His PER (14.5) is slightly below NBA average (and most fans consider him to be a superstar), and his WS/48 (.044) is far below NBA average. By way of comparison, Matthew Dellavedova has a WS/48 of .059, Jordan Clarkson .048, and Brandon Knight .044 (same as Wiggins). You could even make the argument that Wiggins has been outplayed by the Cavs' second round selection from 2014, Joe Harris (11.9 PER, 10.4 WS, .085 WS/48, 2.2 VORP), who has become one of the NBA's premier 3-point shooters (a league-leading .474 last year). Wiggins' performance is not exactly what you'd expect from a #1 overall selection.

    On the other hand, the much-maligned Kevin Love, whom the Cavs received in exchange for Wiggins, has the following career advanced metrics: 21.9 PER, 78.2 WS, .179 WS/48, 24.9 VORP, which could be (should be) good enough to get Love into the Hall of Fame. Even restricting the comparison to Love's time in Cleveland (which corresponds to Wiggins' entire NBA career), Love's numbers blow Wiggins' numbers away:

    Player: 2014-2018...PER......WS...WS/48.VORP.
    Kevin Love20.131.3.1658.0
    Andrew Wiggins14.513.0.044-1.8
    Even if we focus on last year alone, the worst of Love's career, he still greatly outperformed Wiggins:

    Player: 2018 Only...PER......WS...WS/48.VORP.
    Kevin Love19.51.3.1060.0
    Andrew Wiggins12.40.6.012-0.6
    So Kevin Love more than doubled Andrew Wiggins' Win Share (1.3 to 0.6), even though Love played in only 22 games (598 total minutes) and Wiggins played in 73 games (2,542 total minutes); and Love's team had only 19 wins compared to 36 wins for Wiggins' team. And Wiggins' .012 score for WS/48 has to be one of the worst in NBA history for a starter who played a complete season.

    There are still a lot of Cavs' fans who don't want to hear it, but the Wiggins-for-Love trade was a great trade for the Cavs. The Cavs got the much better player, and he was a key component in their four-year title run; Minnesota got a guy who makes highlight reel dunks but doesn't do much to help his team win games.
     
  7. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    To summarize the above (my subjective ratings)....

    4 excellent first round picks (Johnson; Brandon; James; Irving)

    7 good first round picks (Russell; Daugherty; Harper; Ilgauskas; Anderson; Miller; Thompson)

    8 average first round picks (Carr; Mitchell; Hinson; McCormick; Mills; Sura; Knight; Hickson)

    9 poor first round picks (Johnson; Davis; Brewer; Bagley; McCormick; Potapenko; Mihm; Diop; Brown; Waiters

    13 first round busts (Lambert; Williams; Kinch; Granger; Lee; Keys; Morton; Langdon; Wagner; Jackson; Eyenga; Bennett; Karasev)

    Collin Sexton not rated at this early stage of his career.
     
    muffler dragon and CFPBuckeye like this.
  8. CFPBuckeye

    CFPBuckeye Turned down a Harbaugh sleepover '17 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    So roughly half of their picks are poor picks or straight busts and another 20% are just average. That equates to 70% of the Cavs first rounders being a waste. You have to draft above average guys in the first round.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2019
    BayBuck likes this.
  9. LordJeffBuck

    LordJeffBuck Illuminatus Emeritus Staff Member

    A few notes on some of the good or excellent draft picks:

    Ron Harper was the keystone of the infamous Danny Ferry trade. Harper played on 3 of his 15 seasons with the Cavs, so most of his production came for other teams (Bulls, Clippers, Lakers). A really bad trade for the Cavs (and one that possibly cost them a championship).

    After three seasons in Cleveland, Andre Miller was traded for Darius Miles. Miller played another 14 seasons in the NBA at a fairly high level, while Miles was an NBA journeyman who spent a season-and-a-half with the Cavs before moving on. A moderately bad trade for the Cavs, as Miller could've really helped during the first LeBron Era.

    Derek Anderson played 2 seasons in Cleveland before being traded for Lamond Murray, who had three decent seasons for the Cavs (15 ppg, 5 rpg, 9.7 WS, 15.2 PER) . Anderson played for 9 more seasons in the NBA, with his first 5 seasons away from Cleveland being fairly productive. A pretty even trade.

    Kevin Johnson played only 2/3 of a season with Cleveland before being traded to Phoenix for Larry Nance. Both had excellent careers (both should be in the Hall of Fame, IMHO) and the trade was one of the few that helped both teams.
     
  10. CFPBuckeye

    CFPBuckeye Turned down a Harbaugh sleepover '17 Fantasy Baseball Champ

    Historically, it seems the Cavs have a 50/50 chance of just taking their first round pick and wiping their ass with it. That’s a 50% chance that the player they draft is no more useful to them than I am. There’s another 20% chance that he might be an NBA player. That leaves a 30% chance that the player they draft contributes to the team winning games.

    Thanks, @LordJeffBuck for coming through.
     
  11. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    Cavs now 4-5 on the season after a blowout win over the NY Bricks.
     
  12. buckeyemania11

    buckeyemania11 HATE, HATE, HATE, HATE!!! Former BPCFFB II Champ '18 Bowl Upset Contest Winner

    I guess we dont have much to talk about here......

    They are back to sucking though, losing 4 in a row including a 18 point loss to the Knicks on Monday

    Garland continues to be mostly bleh.
     
  13. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    Cavs just dont have the right blend. When you are an NBA team and Cedi Osman is your starting SF, you are in a world of trouble. Compound that with Garland is also not starter quality and yet he starts every game, and Sexton is your PG and averages a paltry 2 assists per game. They are one of the weaker teams in the NBA both offensively and defensively.
     
  14. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

  15. DZ83CK

    DZ83CK Not Banned

    Cavs have really hit the skids. 5-17 now and getting boat raced.
     

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